Archive for the ‘sag predictions’ Tag

22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Predictions   2 comments

As we get closer to the Oscar nomination announcement, the start of the official televised season is here! This week, we’ll be learning the SAG, Golden Globe, and welp BFCA Awards nominees. The SAG Awards is the one that’s been voted by the acting guild, the largest guild voting in the Academy. That said, the actors guild is also really different from the actual Oscar actors guild considering that in SAG, more than 2000 voters are eligible including the TV stars and basically everyone who has a SAG card and has been paying their annual dues. That said, this is still a solid starter for a road to Oscar glory. Here’s what I’m predicting to be in contention for an “Actor” statuette next week.

FILM NOMINEES:

film ensemble.png

 

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:
The Big Short
Brooklyn
The Martian
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

NEXT IN LINE: RoomBridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton, Black Mass

The big story with the SAG committee is the screener. Sending no screener will be the kiss of death in being nominated here. That’s why films such as Sweeney Todd, Django UnchainedThe Wolf of Wall Street, and Selma weren’t nominated here is because they didn’t send screeners. This year, The Hateful Eight didn’t submit so there goes their nomination. Both Joy and The Revenant did however, but they sent it a bit late that’s why they’d likely to miss here. As for those that will *actually* get nominated, Spotlight is probably the frontrunner here as it’s also sweeping ensemble awards left and right. Then there’s the star studded cast of The Big Short doing a lot of SAG campaigning, and they surely want to invite Brad Pitt and Ryan Gosling and Steve Carell and Christian Bale so count them in. The Martian is the Matt Damon show, but they had all these other respected actors playing second fiddle so I guess we can count it safe. Brooklyn is overperforming a lot lately, and this reminds me of An Education which also scored a nomination here in 2009. As for Steve Jobs, sure it was a toxic campaign for the whole team in terms of its award chances but the SAGs are more forgiving when it comes to failed Oscar baits, and this is still a star studded cast so there’s that.

film actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Matt Damon, “The Martian
Johnny Depp, “Black Mass
Leonardo di Caprio, “The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl

NEXT IN LINE: Ian McKellen, “Mr. Holmes“, Michael Caine, “Youth“, Steve Carell, “The Big Short

It really feels a bit weird that I don’t have any veteran in my final five, but sometimes these things do really happen. Matt Damon is in the populist choice box office hit of the year, and you know how much the SAG loves to reward those. And while The Revenant won’t materialize in Ensemble, it solidifies its lead actor’s status in the race with its late screeners. We really shouldn’t be talking about Johnny Depp in this race at all, but I guess it’s one of those inevitable things that we really dread but is happening. WB is pushing for Black Mass so hard, and Depp is still a recognizable name so he’s happening here. Then we have a bunch of underwhelmed contenders: both Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl flopped either in box office or with critics, but these are still baity actor-ly turns that will be nominated. As mentioned, watch out for either Ian McKellen of Mr. Holmes or Michael Caine of Youth to surprise.

film actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, “Carol
Brie Larson, “Room
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy
Carey Mulligan, “Suffragette
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn

NEXT IN LINE: Lily Tomlin, “Grandma“, Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years“, Blythe Danner, “I’ll See You in My Dreams

Blanchett, Larson, and Ronan are all locks at this point. Jennifer Lawrence can be snubbed if enough voters didn’t see Joy in time (because of the late screeners), but considering she’s the biggest movie star in the world, still expect her to get in. The last spot I’m giving to Carey Mulligan as she really rallied around doing a lot of SAG Q&As and screenings, but the SAG is one of those who recognize early screeners and considering that the first two screeners sent to SAG this year were I’ll See You in My Dreams and Grandma, then maybe Blythe Danner and/or Lily Tomlin can crash this race.

film supp actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Michael Keaton, “Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed
Jacob Tremblay, “Room

NEXT IN LINE: Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy“, Christian Bale, “The Big Short“, Benicio del Toro, “Sicario

Mark Rylance is considered as a theater god and an actor’s actor, so he’s in. He’s also the place where the SAG can recognize the whole Bridge of Spies ensemble. Then there’s the pairing of Spotlight actors Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo as sure contenders. With Creed breaking out last Thanksgiving, expect the actors guild (of all places) to embrace the comeback of Sly. As for the last spot, the SAG has been known to be the place to reward child acting performances from Keisha Castle Hughes to Freddie Highmore and Hailee Steinfeld to Abigail Breslin (remember Quvenzhane Wallis was ineligible during her year) so Jacob Tremblay makes sense in here.

film supp actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Jane Fonda, “Youth
Rooney Mara, “Carol
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs

NEXT IN LINE: Elizabeth Banks,”Love and Mercy“, Helen Mirren, “Trumbo“, Joan Allen, “Room

Unlike the Golden Globes, the SAGs has no power to go against category fraud. They put the contenders where the studio is campaigning them; thus both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander will compete here. And they’re locks for nominations already. The same can be said for Kate Winslet who has won two SAGs in this category too. Jane Fonda is this year’s veteran contender, and considering that SAG only started 22 years ago, expect them to play catch up with Jane and nominate her. The last spot can go to Elizabeth Banks who the actors really seem to love and respect, Helen Mirren who’s your default filler nominee, or Joan Allen in that comeback narrative, but I expect the strong support of Spotlight to carry over Rachel McAdams in here.

TELEVISION NOMINEES:

drama ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Downton Abbey
Empire
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men

NEXT IN LINE: Homeland, The Good Wife, American Crime

As per the SAG TV committee, the limited series such as American Horror Story, True Detective, Fargo, and American Crime are eligible here instead of the longform categories. But FX didn’t submit any of its shows in here, so don’t count on them. Thus expect, usual nominees Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, and House of Cards to get nominations as well as ratings juggernaut Empire, and a comeback farewell nod for the cast of multiple winner Mad Men.

drama actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
Terence Howard, “Empire
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: Patrick Wilson, “Fargo“, Kyle Chandler, “Bloodline“, Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul

Only Peter Dinklage and Kevin Spacey are really the locks here, but considering they love giving farewell nods (and I’m predicting it in Ensemble), so Jon Hamm makes sense as a contender. Terrence Howard is a previous multiple nominee and a SAG Ensemble winner so I can see him making it in. For that last spot, there’s Kyle Chandler and Patrick Wilson but maybe a Better Call Saul actor will be recognized, and I’ll go with the lead actor Bob Odenkirk.

drama actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Claire Danes, “Homeland
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson, “Empire
Jean Smart,”Fargo
Robin Wright, “House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black“, Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife“, Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey

Probably the most crowded category, it’s no wonder that last year provided us with six nominees (and they’re all eligible again!) That said, I’m sticking with five this year. Current winner Viola Davis, Claire Danes, and Robin Wright both are the strongest bets here. Then there’s Taraji P.Henson in the most buzzed character in TV right now. The last spot I’m giving to Jean Smart just to have some Fargo representation, even if I can see Dame Maggie Smith easily getting that last spot.

comedy ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Grace and Frankie
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Veep
Wet Hot American Summer

NEXT IN LINE: Brooklyn Nine Nine, The Big Bang Theory, Transparent

The cast of Modern FamilyOrange is the New Black, and Veep are sure contenders here already. I think the old folks at SAG will recognize Grace and Frankie here despite it being a small cast considering that small cast are all respected veterans both in TV and in film. As for that last spot, just for the star studded aspect of it, I’m going with Wet Hot American Summer just because they want Bradley Cooper, Paul Rudd, Amy Poehler, and the rest of the cast to be included in the party.

comedy actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth
William H. Macy, “Shameless
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent

NEXT IN LINE: Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish“, Martin Sheen, “Grace and Frankie“, Bradley Cooper, “Wet Hot
American Summer

After his Emmy win, I find it hard to see them snubbing Jeffrey Tambor again given this role and its clout. Then there’s current winner William H. Macy and another champion in this category Ty Burrell. Jim Parsons is still one of the top comedic actors right now and The Big Bang Theory is still the ratings juggernaut so expect him here. As for the last spot, we can expect anybody from Don Cheadle to Martin Sheen, but I’d say Will Forte gets that last spot.

comedy actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
Allison Janney, “Mom
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie

NEXT IN LINE: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family“, Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation“, Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie

Considering they won’t recognize Lily Tomlin for her film work, then expect her to get in for her TV turn instead. Then, JLD, Uzo, and Edie Falco are strong bets as well. Considering she’s a SAG and Emmy favorite, I think that Allison Janney can finally enter the race with her scene stealing role in Mom. That said, don’t count out a farewell nod for Amy Poehler here.

movie mini actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Idris Elba, “Luther
Oscar Isaac, “Show Me A Hero
Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall
David Oyelowo, “Nightingale
Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall

NEXT IN LINE: Bill Paxton, “Texas Rising“, Bill Murray, “A Very Murray Christmas“, Louis Gossett Jr, “The Book of Negroes

While he might not be nominated for his work in Beasts of No Nation, Idris Elba can still attend the SAGs, thanks to his TV work for Luther. There’s also Oscar Isaac in HBO’s only eligible miniseries thus far… Show Me a Hero. Following his Emmy nod earlier this year, Davod Oyelowo will also get in for his one man show in Nightingale.  Lastly, expect the yin-yang pairing of Wolf Hall actors Mark Rylance and Damian Lewis to close the race.

movie mini actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Catherine Keener, “Show Me A Hero
Nicole Kidman, “Grace of Monaco
Queen Latifah, “Bessie
Mo’nique, “Bessie
Winona Ryder, “Show Me A Hero

NEXT IN LINE: Saoirse Ronan, “Stockholm, Pennsylvania“, Susan Sarandon, “The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe“, Claire Foy, “Wolf Hall

With everyone else and their limited series ineligible here, you know the category is empty that Nicole Kidman in freaking Grace of Monaco is a prediction. But really, this field is THAT empty. Joining her are two pairs of actress from the other HBO films. There’s likely winner Queen Latifah and Mo’nique for Bessie and Catherine Keener and Winona Ryder (who surprised in this category here a few years ago) for Show Me A Hero.

There you have it! The nominees for the 21st Screen Actors Guild Awards will happen on December 9, at 9PM (Manila time).

Advertisements

21st Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

It’s the busiest time of the year to become an awards prognosticator, as the two biggest televised Oscar precursors are announcing their picks this week. First up we have the Screen Actors Guild Awards, composed of thousands of members of the SAG-AFTRA committee, who will reveal their picks this Wednesday. As always, I’ll be predicting who will be up for an “Actor” in all 13 acting categories in both film and television medium.

FILM NOMINEES:

film ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:

Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods

NEXT IN LINE: Selma, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Theory of Everything

Birdman and Boyhood are shoo-ins at this point. Birdman is an actors’ film about actors, and they’d have no hesitations nominating it. Boyhood, albeit a small ensemble, is the most critically lauded film of the year, so it’ll easily make the cut as well. The Imitation Game fills the slot of that raditional Oscar baity contender who’ll easily get in the precursors. Into the Woods is that huge ensemble-y film that hits two of SAG’s usual requirements in this category: its fairly known huge cast and their love for musicals. The last spot however can still go to three different directions: Selma (despite no screeners sent), Foxcatcher (who’s sweeping the early Ensemble awards) and ultimately my prediction Gone Girl (a fairly huge ensemble that was well praised in that aspect and has lots of TV actors in its cast which bodes well from the AFTRA members).

film lead actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, “Birdman
David Oyelowo, “Selma
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything

NEXT IN LINE: Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper“; Matthew McConaughey, “Interstellar“; Ben Affleck, “Gone Girl

Four slots are already occupied here for SAG: Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, and Carell. Say what you want about Steve Carell’s Oscar chances but here at SAG, he’s safe. He’s a multiple time nominee for The Office, and he’s one that I see ignites passion from the actors guild. The last spot is a bit trickier though: Bradley Cooper has been nominated the past two years, and his weight gain transformation can make it three in a row. Then there’s also the two lead actors from two of the biggest films of the year, box-office wise via Gone Girl‘s Ben Affleck and current category champ Matthew McConaughey of Interstellar. Me thinks they’d be targeting the same crowd, thus leading to a path for a David Oyelowo nod instead overcoming its lack of screeners.

film lead actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl
Hilary Swank, “The Homesman
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild

NEXT IN LINE: Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods“; Amy Adams, “Big Eyes“; Shailene Woodley, “The Fault in Our Stars

Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund Pike, and Felicity Jones have no problem getting in this pretty empty field. But as always, it’s the fifth spot that ignites all these debates. If SAG continues to be pretty populist, then Shailene Wooldey might pop up here for her turn as cancer-stricken patient in The Fault in Our Stars. If they really go gaga over Into the Woods (which is fairly possible), then expect Emily Blunt to be swept along the ride. Amy Adams has been snubbed for her last two performances here in SAG, and this time she’s not starring in a Best Picture contender so who knows? I guess I’ve learned from past mistakes (to be specific, my 2010 mistake) and to never underestimate Hilary Swank again. She got an out of the field nod for Conviction that year, and with the amount of pleasing and campaigning she’s doing this year, a random mention for The Homesman is what I’m predicting will complete the lineup.

film supp actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Robert Duvall, “The Judge
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood
Edward Norton, “Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash

NEXT IN LINE: Christoph Waltz, “Big Eyes“; Josh Brolin, “Inherent Vice“; Tom Wilkinson, “Selma

Frontrunner J.K. Simmons, as well as Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo, and Ethan Hawke are all safe now and can expect to hear their names get in this category. That said, who joins them is what the question of this category begs to ask. If they’ve seen Big Eyes enough in time, then I can see Christoph waltzing his way to a nomination (I think it’ll be both nominated or both snubbed situation for him and Amy Adams, and I’m predicting the latter). Then there’s Josh Brolin who’s been working so hard the last few years that they’d probably just nominate him for his scene-stealing performance in Inherent Vice. While I doubt that Selma can take two individual nods in it, it’s perennial character actor Tom Wilkinson talking about here, so maybe he can still get in. Alas, I’m going with screen legend Robert Duvall for the fifth spot. This smells like that random SAG veteran slot, and they seemed to be enamored with him even giving Duvall a Best Actor nod for Get Low four years ago.

film supp actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods
Emma Stone, “Birdman

NEXT IN LINE: Laura Dern, “Wild“; Anna Kendrick, “Into the Woods

Can you believe that this is Meryl Streep’s first Supporting nomination in SAG history? Well yep it’s finally happening. Same goes for other first time Supporting Actress contenders Emma Stone, Patricia Arquette, and Keira Knightley. The last spot though is between Wild‘s Laura Dern and A Most Violent Year‘s Jessica Chastain. There is basically a path for both women en route to a nom, but I guess I’ll just go with Chastain to receive her third individual SAG nod here.

TELEVISION NOMINEES:

tv drama ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
American Horror Story: Freak Show
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: True Detective, Boardwalk Empire, Masters of Sex

Here I go again risking and predicting an American Horror Story season to get in as if I haven’t learned my lesson yet last year. And over True Detective while we’re at that. While there’s a 90% chance that I’ll be wrong, the only reason I’m risking it is because True Detective is basically the Matthew and Woody show, and they’d obviously get individual noms already. Plus, the casting for AHS every season continues to be bigger with more names attached so here’s some wishful thinking that they’ll get in this year. As for the rest of the pack, this is a very weak field that I’m going with old favorites: Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife, and House of Cards.

tv drama actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards
James Spader, “The Blacklist

NEXT IN LINE: Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom“; Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire“; Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex

Matthew, Kevin, and Woody are all in easily (though I really have no idea if they’re placing True Detective here or in the longform categories). Peter Dinklage continues to be the go to supporting actor representative that’s why I’m predicting him again. The final slot can go to a lot of ways but SAG being a very populist group might give one of their usual favorites a bone for having a top rater show, so I’m throwing James Spader’s name into the mix.

tv drama actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey
Kerry Washington, “Scandal
Robin Wright, “House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder“; Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show“; Claire Danes, “Homeland

La Lange has been nominated for all her three previous AHS seasons, so I don’t think they’ll stop now in a season where she literally has broken legs. Robin Wright meanwhile seems like an easy call for a nod, and I think they’d embrace Julianna Margulies again after snubbing her for a year. I would have easily ditched Maggie Smith in this line up, but damn if she wasn’t strong enough that she pulled off the surprise win last year and is this category’s champ. For that last spot, it’s between the two Shonda representatives: I don’t think Kerry Washington is a one and done deal here, and I felt that despite her respect in the industry, it won’t be easy for SAG to embrace How to Get Away with Murder especially in a competent field like this one.

tv comedy ensemb;e

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
Orange is the New Black
Veep

NEXT IN LINE: Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Parks and Recreation, Silicon Valley

The foursome ensemble of Big Bang Theory, Modern Family, Orange is the New Black,  and Veep are easy calls here. What happens after is the trickier part though. They’ve snubbed Brooklyn Nine-Nine  last year, and I don’t think they’ve elicited enough respect to suddenly get in here. Silicon Valley is a decent choice, but it’s a tamed one considering they did not touch Girls within a ten-inch pole even during the times when it was the watercooler show. So I’m throwing a random nod to Nurse Jackie knowing that they’ve already nominated the ensemble before.

tv comedy actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
Louis C.K., “Louie
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent

NEXT IN LINE: Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine“; Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes“; Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones

How I’ve really wished they can finally let go of their Don Cheadle hard on, but it seems like he’ll just continue to coast for the next few awards shows. Jim Parsons, current winner Ty Burrell, and Louis CK are quite the obvious calls. I don’t know if I’m being too optimistic about considering Jeffrey Tambor here, but his is a critically respected performance from a TV veteran in a really baity role, so they might give in (let’s hope!). Also, I won’t be surprised for a posthumous mention to the late Robin Williams as he’s still eligible here.

tv comedy actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
Allison Janney, “Mom
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep
Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation

NEXT IN LINE: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family“; Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family“; Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black

I’m really not familiar with Lisa Kudrow and The Comeback‘s eligibility so she might really not be in contention, but I’m still predicting here in this lineup. Both Amy Poehler and Julia Louis Dreyfus are easy calls here, but nothing excites me more than the possible reunion of Allison Janney and Edie Falco who used to compete all the time in the drama categories more than a decade ago. Janney seems like a typical SAG catnip, and Falco has stood the test of time when it comes to getting precursor nominations. Expect veteran Kate Mulgrew or one of the Modern Family ladies to join the group if Kudrow is indeed ineligible.

movie mini actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
Martin Freeman, “Fargo
Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge
Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

NEXT IN LINE: Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart“; David Tennant, “Gracepoint“; Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge

Thornton, Cumberbatch and Ruffalo are easy calls here. I think they’d be generous enough to nominate Martin Freeman as well since his career is starting to breakout as well. I’m a bit dubious about choosing supporting actor Bill Murray over lead one Richard Jenkins, but hey it has happened here before and if there’s one name checking that can happen, then ten bucks say it’s Murray over Jenkins who they’ll check regardless of their actual roles in the said HBO TV movie.

movie mini actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman
Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge
Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart
Allison Tolman, “Fargo
Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful

NEXT IN LINE: Kristen Wiig, “The Spoils of Babylon“; Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic“; Whoopi Goldberg, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short

Julia Roberts is a done deal here, and the same can be said for both Maggue Gyllenhaal and Frances McDormand. They usually nominate random performances every now and then (remember Winona Ryder a few years ago for that TV movie which no one even remembers the title now?), but I’m holding out hope for Allison Tolman to get in here. And as for that Lifetime spot, it can either be Whoopi Goldberg or Minnie Driver, but I’d go with veteran Cicely Tyson here.

There you have it! The nominees for the 21st Screen Actors Guild Awards will happen tomorrow, December 11, at 9PM (Manila time).

 

20th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

This year’s precursor week is on the way with the televised awards show unveiling their own nominations, and there’s no betetr way to start the awards season with the actors guild. The Screen Actors Guild, voted by 3000+ members of the Actors Guild both in film and television, will kickstart this year as they announce their nominations on Wednesday morning. Here are my predictions on 13 different acting categories.

FILM NOMINEES:

film ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniel’s The Butler
Nebraska

NEXT IN LINE: Prisoners; Blue Jasmine; Saving Mr. Banks; The Wolf of Wall Street

Basically the counterpart of the Best Picture category, the SAG usually follows the Best Picture frontrunners and nominate their cast here, but most of the time, go on their own way and choose one to two “ensembly” nominees. This year, there’s no much buzier casting than those of August: Osage CountyAmerican Hustle, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler12 Years a Slave benefits from being the current frontrunner and with a cast of respected and known actors, so I’m sure they’re a shoo-in. For the last slot, the SAG usually balances these big ensembles with small ones, and with its strong precursor support the past week, I’m thinking Nebraska will fill in the last slot. Don’t be shocked if NBR Ensemble winner Prisoners, or active SAG campaigners Saving Mr. Banks also makes it. But by sending no screeners this year, don’t expect Wolf of Wall Street to factor in at the race this year.

film actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years A Slave
Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, “All is Lost

NEXT IN LINE: Leonardo di Caprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street“; Forest Whitaker, “Lee Daniels’ The Butler“; Michael B. Jordan, “Fruitvale Station

Like last year, this category has ended up with six men fighting for five slots. Last year, Joaquin Phoenix missed this one but ended up bumping John Hawkes at the Oscars. This year, it’ll be an easier task to leave di Caprio off the top five since they’ll be sending no screeners for the 3000+ voters. Sure they did a screening or two, but that trumps by the other five contenders whose films were sent to all voters of the guild.

film actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity
Judi Dench, “Philomena
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, “Saving Mr. Banks

NEXT IN LINE: Amy Adams, “American Hustle“; Brie Larson, “Short Term 12“; Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Enough Said

Like the actors category, this has ended up into a six woman race. Right now, the consensus is on Amy Adams missing the SAG because American Hustle was the last film of all six to send a screener to the voting guild. Besides, the SAG has shown history of snubbing Amy just a year ago for The Master. With that said, I don’t see this affecting Adams’ Oscar chances at all. She was just weakened by the weird scheduling of SAG voting. Now, if one of the five ladies above fail to grab a SAG nod (leading to Amy’s nod), then I can see that woman failing to get the Oscar nod as well.

film supp actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, “Enough Said
Tom Hanks, “Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club

NEXT IN LINE: Harrison Ford, “42“; Chris Cooper, “August: Osage County“; Will Forte, “Nebraska“; Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips

I know you’re wondering no Adams in Actress but I have Bradley Cooper in here. But there’s only one word to describe this category: CLUSTERFUCK. I swear at least ten contenders seem to fit the bill on who can get nominated here, so it’s basically just choosing who at the moment. Maybe the moment I post this I have another set of predictions already. For now I think Michael Fassbender and Jared Leto are safe no matter what. I put in Tom Hanks there since Saving Mr. Banks did a lot of screenings and Q&As for SAG members, and it will pay off with noms for both Thompson and Hanks. The great late James Gandolfini is such a very SAG pick after receiving a dozen nods in the past for The Sopranos. Remember that the TV people encompass a lot of the overall SAG voters, so this helps him more as well. Now as for Bradley Cooper, American Hustle has sent in screeners and he seems to fit the contender who’ll do well in televised awards show. Don’t count out Harrison Ford (who campaigned a lot to SAG members too), Chris Cooper (who SAG loves to give individual nods), Will Forte (another TV star in a possible Ensemble contender), and Barkhad Abdi (young male ingenue SAG loves to recognize) for nods as well.

film supp actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County
June Squibb, “Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, “Lee Daniels’ The Butler

NEXT IN LINE: Octavia Spencer, “Fruitvale Station“; Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine“; Margo Martindale, “August: Osage County

Now these five women have been out in front that it can end up as our actual nominees as well. Octavia Spencer can find ehrself getting nommed here if only Fruitvale is getting buzz in other categories, but that doesn’t seem like the case. The onky other possible challenger I see is Margo Martindale since she is a respected TV veteran who’s enjoying the late surge of breakthroughs in her career. But then again, I don’t think August will prevail with two nods here even if it’s such an actory film.

TELEVISION NOMINEES:

tv drama ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
American Horror Story: Coven
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Homeland
Orange is the New Black

 

NEXT IN LINE: House of Cards; Game of Thrones; Mad Men

Last year was Homeland‘s first year of existence at the SAGs, and I don’t see them dropping the show off already as much as the internet people perceive will happen. Last year’s winner Downton Abbey will surely be back, as well as the most buzzed show of the year Breaking Bad. Then you also have the most buzzed new show of the year which is Orange is the New Black, and this is the type of female driven ensemble dramedies that SAG is guilty of nominating (Boston Legal, Desperate Housewives, Weeds). I think by now, Coven is a wishful thinking on my part, but how can they resist the triumvirate of Jessica Lange, Kathy Bates, and ANgela Bassett!?! Well I’m pretty sure they’ll be snubbed for multiple time winner Mad Men or it show Game of Thrones, so let me cherish this wishful thinking nod even for a second.

tv drama actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
Damian Lewis,”Homeland
Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom“; Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex“; Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire

The SAG TV committee is quite slow in recognizing a lot of new shows (remember the Homeland snub two years ago?), so I don’t see Masters of Sex factoring in at the race this year. Nevertheless, the sheer movie star power of Kevin Spacey is enough for him to breakthrough this category. Aside from perennial nominees Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm, I’m calling a consecutive Damian Lewis nod and finally an individual nomination for Aaron Paul. Don’t count out Emmy winner Jeff Daniels though as he got in last year, and same goes for Steve Buscemi (remind me again why I only have him in Next in Line even if he just won this two years ago?).

tv drama actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Claire Danes, “Homeland
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story Coven
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey
Kerry Washington, “Scandal

NEXT IN LINE: Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel“; Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad“; Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story Coven

If the male drama counterpart is quite empty, then consider the ladies department different, as it has a lot of contenders battling out for five slots here. Well let’s just say the likes of current winner Claire Danes’ spot is already reserved. The same goes for the winner two years ago, Jessica Lange, who got in for the other two Horror franchise, so I’d say a streak is still happening. Another winner two years ago is Dame Maggie Smith, despite being a show at all American awards show the past three years, continues to rake in the nods, and she’d get in once again. I have my reservation for Julianna Margulies, but I guess when it comes to this good wife, never underestimate the SAG love for her, as she’s the most rewarded female actor in SAG history. The last spot is basically up for grabs though I’d give the edge to current entertainment it girl Kerry Washington to follow her Emmy nod with a SAG one.

tv comedy ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
Veep

NEXT IN LINE: Girls; Arrested Development; Glee

They snubbed  Girls last year (over has been seasons of Glee and The Office, so that says a lot), and I don’t see them warming up after a more divisive second season. It’s probably too hip for the SAG taste. Despite their non-eligibility, SAG allowed 30 Rock to compete again this year, so that only means it’s scoring a nod. Big Bang Theory and Modern Family continues to rake in the ratings and the acclaim, so they’re shoo-in here. Then there’s also Nurse Jackie who amde a surprise showing last year. If anything, this category is clingy to shows they’ve nominated many times before even after their prime (Desperate Housewives, Will & Grace, Glee, The Office), and seems like this Showtime dramedy fits that bill. I’d say the last spot goes to Veep, as it continues to ascend its clout among gu

tv comedy actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
Michael J. Fox, “The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”

NEXT IN LINE: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development“; Don Cheadle, “House of Lies“; Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones

Why even bother discuss this category when we know the still undefeated Alec Baldwin will win it for the eighth straight year??!?! But of course that’s part of the fun I guess. Aside from Baldwin, we have perennial nominees Ty Burrell and Eric Stonstreet who’d add another nod in their tally. Jim Parsons finally made the breakthrough this year, so I don’t see him missing. The last spot is a crazy one. They’ve never cared for House of Lies in the past, and they’re not eager on rewarding freshman shows easily. I don’t think a lukewarm and almost unfelt season of Arrested Development will make waves here, so I’ll just assume that they’d see Michael J. Fox’s name and they’d quickly check it.

tv comedy actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, “30 Rock
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
Betty White, “Hot in Cleveland

NEXT IN LINE: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation“; Lena Dunham, “Girls“; Julie Bowen, “Modern Family

SAG loves ’em Sopranos, so aside from Tony, Carmela gets another individual nod for Nurse Jackie. I think her and the show is their new The Closer, which they’ll basically just nominate every year. Like Alec, Tina will surely snoop in another nomination for 30 Rock. Both Sofia and Betty White can be replaced this year had there been stronger contenders, but they’ve been nominated multiple times consecutively the last few years that I don’t see any shake out that will follow. If anything, I’d just think they’ll finally recognize Veep exists as a show and nominate its cast and lead star, Julia Louis Dreyfus.

moviemini actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge
Al Pacino, “Phil Spector
Christopher Plummer, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

NEXT IN LINE: Ben Whishaw, “The Hollow Crown“; Benedict Cumberbatch, “Parade’s End“; Idris Elba, “Luther

Oscar winners Michael Douglas, Matt Damon, and Al Pacino are all done deal and locks now, so basically it just leaves two spots open. The SAGs have never cared for anything Luther or Sherlock and Cumberbatch in the past, so I’m leaving out both Idris Elba and Benedict Cumberbatch. But they tend to love their Brits and English lads so maybe Ben Whishaw has a chance. I guess with a strong year for 12 Years a Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor can carry another nod here, as that is such a SAG thing to do (to nominate an actor both for his film AND TV performance the same year; see: Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith last year as for starters). Then the last spot I just predicted Christopher Plummer because they also love their old men slash veterans here.

moviemini actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Helena Bonham Carter, “Burton and Taylor
Holly Hunter, “Top of the Lake
Elisabeth Moss, “Top of the Lake
Laura Linney, “The Big C: Hereafter
Helen Mirren, “Phil Spector

NEXT IN LINE: Angela Bassett, “Betty and Coretta“; Hilary Swank, “Mary and Martha“; Gillian Anderson, “The Fall

Emmy nominated for their performances, Helen Mirren, Elisabeth Moss, and eventual winner Laura Linney are easy calls in this category. And despite her snub, maybe Oscar winner Holly Hunter’s physically challenging performance in Top of the Lake can get in as well. After all. SAGs aren’t totally observant of performances Emmys snub. Then to complete the list, Helena Bonham Carter can waltz her way with a nod in her Elizabeth Taylor portrayal after Lindsay Lohan did hers.

There you have it! As a reminder, the 20th Screen Actors Guild nominations will be announced on Wednesday, December 11 by Sasha Alexander and Clark Gregg.

If you have questions, you can pipe them in below. Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

 

 

19th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

This week is probably the busiest in terms of Oscar prognosticating before the actual Oscar nominations next week. Later, we will have the  Broadcast Film Critics Association nominations revealed, and tomorrow we will have the Screen Actors Guild. So before Cougar Town‘s Busy Philipps and Private Practice‘s Taye Diggs announce the nomination, here are my predictions on who will be nominated by the actors for tomorrow.

FILM NOMINEES:

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:

film ensemble

Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

NEXT IN LINE: Django Unchained, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Moonrise Kingdom

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

film actor

Daniel Day Lewis, “Lincoln”
John Hawkes, “The Sessions”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joauin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

NEXT IN LINE: Bradley Cooper, “The Silver Linings Playbook”; Anthony Hopkins, “Hitchcock”; Richard Gere, “Arbitrage”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

film actress

Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “The Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren, “Hitchcock”
Rachel Weisz, “The Deep Blue Sea”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

NEXT IN LINE: Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”; Judi Dench, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”; Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

film supporting actor

Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert de Niro, “The Silver Linings Playbook”
Leonarod di Caprio, “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

NEXT IN LINE: Ewan McGregor, “The Impossible”; John Goodman, “Flight”; Samuel Jackson, “Django Unchained”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

film supporting actress

Amy Adams, “The Master”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Maggie Smith, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

NEXT IN LINE: Samantha Barks, “Les Miserables”; Ann Dowd, “Compliance”; Kerry Washington, “Django Unchained”

TELEVISION NOMINEES:

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama ensemble

Boardwalk Empire
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
Homeland
Mad Men

NEXT IN LINE: Breaking Bad, The Closer, The Newsroom

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama actor

Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Damian Lewis, “Homeland”

NEXT IN LINE: Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”; Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”; Patrick Adams, “Suits”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama actress

Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story”
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”

NEXT IN LINE: Glenn Close, “Damages”; Kathy Bates, “Harry’s Law”; Connie Britton, “Nashville”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy ensemble

The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Modern Family
30 Rock
Veep

NEXT IN LINE: Parks and Recreation, New Girl, Hot in Cleveland

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy actor

Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Louis CK, “Louie”
Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”
Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”

NEXT IN LINE: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”; Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”; Matthew Perry, “Go On”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy actress

Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
Betty white, “Hot in Cleveland”

NEXT IN LINE: Lena Dunham, “Girls”; Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”; Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:

movie miniseries actor

Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys”
Woody Harrelson, “Game Change”
Ed Harris, “Game Change”
Clive Owen, “Hemingway and Gellhorn”
Bill Paxton, “Hatfields & McCoys”

NEXT IN LINE: Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock”; Tom Berenger, “Hatfields & McCoys”; Toby Jones, “The Girl”

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:

movie miniseries actress

Ellen Burstyn, “Political Animals”
Nicole Kidman, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”
Queen Latifah, “Steel Magnolias”
Julianne Moore, “Game Change”
Sigourney Weaver, “Political Animals”

NEXT IN LINE: Sienna Miller, “The Girl”; Alfre Woodard, “Steel Magnolias”; Mare Winningham, “Hatfields & McCoys”

Posted December 11, 2012 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

Tagged with , , ,