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68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 1: Reality and Variety   Leave a comment

Five days from now, Anthony Anderson and Lauren Graham will announce the nominees for the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards, rewarding the best in television for the previous television season. In this special four-parter, I’ll be sharing my thoughts on which shows and performances are destined for Emmy gold this year. First up, the reality and variety series and specials.

reality competition

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:
• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Survivor (NBC)

Despite the surge in popularity of other reality shows like RuPaul’s Drag Race or the previously nominated Survivor, voters in this category are probably the laziest as this is the lineup we had for the last three years. Thus, even if there are other shows that were well-received, we’re stuck with this lineup, and that’s why I’m predicting the same six. Watch out though for a comeback of some sort, either Survivor‘s resurgence finally catches on the Academy or the farewell season of American Idol, to join the race again.

reality competition host

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:
• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars”
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance”
• Steve Harvey, “Celebrity Family Feud”
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway”
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night”

Sixth nominee: Ryan Seacrest, “American Idol”

Anthony Bourdain is ineligible this time around for The Taste, so that frees up a slot here, and the possibilities are endless. For now, I’m retaining three of the previous winners here – Bergeron, Klum and Gunn, and current champ Lynch – to join perennial nominee Cat Deeley. As for the newbie, I’m betting on Steve Harvey to pick up a nod, especially after his infamous Miss Universe stint in here. If not, then Ryan Seacrest probably comes back for Idol‘s series finale, or maybe RuPaul finally gets a breakthrough.

special class program

OUTSTANDING SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM
• Grease: Live (Fox)
• Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill (HBO)
• The Oscars (ABC)
• Super Bowl 50 Halftime Show (CBS)
• 69th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
• The Wiz Live (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Grammys 2016 (CBS)

For the first time, they’ve created a specific Special Class Program that separates specials to awards ceremonies and other live events. For this one, the focus is on theatrical specials and the current trend of doing live musicals on network shows will automatically give Grease Live and The Wiz Live nominations. Among awards ceremonies, however, the Oscars and the Tonys are the one that regularly gets nominated so expect them in here as well. HBO’s Lady Day special is a good bet as well, and since it’s still up in the air if we’ll get five or six nominees here, I’m including the Pepsi Halftime Show of the SuperBowl 50 which had the Coldplay, Bruno Mars, and Beyonce performance.

variety special

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL
• Adele Live in New York City (NBC)
• Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo (HBO)
• Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
• Lemonade (HBO)
• Must See TV: A Tribute to James Burrows (NBC)

Sixth nominee: Sinatra 100: An All-Star Grammy Concert (CBS)

Speaking of Beyonce, the first of the Adele vs. Beyonce face-offs yet to come for the rest of the year will surprisingly start at the Emmys. Adele’s special NBC New York special is the frontrunner here, but Beyonce’s online smash premiere of Lemonade on HBO is a certain to receive a nod too. In between, there’s Amy Schumer’s Live at the Apollo special, multiple time winner Kennedy Center Honors, and as for the last spot, I’m going with the James Burrows special only because I think Burrows is a prominent and legendary TV figure that has worked on a lot of previous Emmy winning series.

variety talk

OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK PROGRAM
• The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
• The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
• The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
• The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

It’s a different category now without the usual shows (as the three from last year – the two Jimmys and John Oliver are coming back), especially from last year. With the exit of David Letterman and Jon Stewart, it frees up two spots here. Well, three if you include The Colbert Report, but then he’s just replacing himself with The Late Show. Trevor Noah taking over Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show is a shoo-in atoo. For that last spot, one can count on Real Time with Bill Maher to come back considering it’s a mainstay in this category except for its first absence last year. That said, I think HBO’s focus is now on Last Week Tonight already. I guess the popularity of his carpool karaoke series combined with the industrys penchant for him will give James Corden his first bid here for his CBS nightly show.

variety sketch

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH PROGRAM
• Documentary Now! (IFC)
• Drunk History (Comedy Central)
• Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
• Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
• Portlandia (IFC)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Billy On The Street (truTV)

They’re extending the category to six now from last year’s five. Considering that all five nominees from last year are still eligible, then expect all five to be back. As for what’s joining them, we’re counting on IFC’s Documentary Now which has Emmy nominees Fred Armisen and Bill Hader on the forefront to get nominated too.

Tomorrow, it’s the longform categories with the TV Movie and Miniseries programs!

Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

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Final 67th Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions   2 comments

emmy predictions 2015

Drama Series: Game of Thrones (alternate: Mad Men)
Drama Lead Actor: Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” (alternate: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Drama Lead Actress: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder” (alternate: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”)
Drama Supporting Actor: Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul” (alternate: Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline)
Drama Supporting Actress: Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones” (alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black)
Drama Directing: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy” (alternate: Homeland, “From A to B and Back Again”)
Drama Writing: Mad Men, “Person to Person” (alternate: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy”)

Comedy Series: Veep (alternate: Modern Family)
Comedy Lead Actor: Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” (alternate: Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”)
Comedy Lead Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (alternate: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”)
Comedy Supporting Actor: Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (alternate: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”)
Comedy Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, “Mom” (alternate: Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”)
Comedy Directing: The Last Man on Earth, “Alive in Tucson” (alternate: Veep, “Testimony”)
Comedy Writing: Veep, “Election Night” (alternate: Transparent, “Pilot”)

Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actor: Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actress: Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge” (alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actor: Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (alternate: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Limited Series or Movie Directing: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Writing: Wolf Hall (alternate: Olive Kitteridge)

Reality/Competition Show: The Amazing Race (alternate: The Voice)
Variety Talk Show: The Colbert Report (alternate: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver)
Variety Sketch Show: Saturday Night Live (alternate: Inside Amy Schumer)
Variety Directing: Inside Amy Schumer, “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” (alternate: Late Show with David Letterman, “Episode Show 2414”)
Variety Writing: Inside Amy Schumer (alternate: The Colbert Report)

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Reality/Competition Program   Leave a comment

reality competition

In the twelve years since this category started back in 2003, The Amazing Race has won this ten time with both Top Chef and The Voice sneaking one win apiece. Now that the three shows are competing again, will we see one of them winning? Or is it time for the other no-win nominees (Dancing with the Stars, Project Runway, So You Think You Can Dance) to snatch their win?

Both the dancing shows submitted close to finale episodes. Dancing with the Stars went with “Episode 2009” while So You Think You Can Dance submitted the “August 20, 2014” episode. The thing with these dancing shows is that while they’re showing the competition, it’s not competitive enough with the other competition formats. Add the fact that they’re the only programs that show the same type of skill (dancing), it cancels out each other votes.

One time champ The Voice decided to go with “Blind Auditions 701.” It’s wise that they keep on submitting their blind audition episodes, as they feature the gimmicky spinning chairs and had the coaches fighting with each other. It also offers something new because it’s the first season with coaches Gwen Stefani and Pharrell Williams.

Project Runway is now on its eleventh bid in this category, and it has yet to win. They went with “The Rainway”  episode where the designers are *obviously* gonna make garments suitable for the rainy season. It also has the gimmick of having rain on the actual runway. I find this a new take from the Project Runway team, as they’re more leaning to episodes with contestants’ drama instead of having anything to do with the actual challenge.

Hoping for a second victory is 2010 champ Top Chef, which submitted their Boston season finale for this year. While there’s tough competition in this episode with an elimination at the start of the episode, it feels a bit “been there done that” already.

There’s a reason why The Amazing Race continues to dominate this category, and that’s because they know how to provide the great submissions. This year, they went with “Mo’rock n Roll” where the contestants can be seen flying to Morocco from Denmark. In a span of 42 minutes, this has all the elements of an award winning episode – you have perceived frontrunners Misti & Jim finishing a Speed Bump at the start of the episode, then there’s a Detour and a U Turn as well. Plus, the heart tugging angle of surfer Bethany doing a Road Block.

Well it’s obvious by now that The Amazing Race is winning an eleventh one, and its episode is far and above the rest of the pack. The only one I can see challenging it is The Voice with its two new coaches.

PREDICTION: The Amazing Race (CBS)
ALTERNATE: The Voice (NBC)

Full rankings:
01. “The Amazing Race
02. “The Voice
03. “Project Runway
04. “Dancing with the Stars
05. “Top Chef
06. “So You Think You Can Dance

You can also check the rest of my 2015 Emmy prediction analysis. Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 1: Reality and Variety   Leave a comment

Hi everyone! This week is a special week long Emmy coverage here at Tit for Tat! Before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official 66th Emmy nominees on Thursday, I’ll be doing a four-parter prediction post to cover who I think will be nominated in 30 different categories. And like in the past three years, we’ll begin with the Reality and Variety categories.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:

Reality Competition

• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• Survivor (CBS)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

This category rarely does some major shake up if history is to be looked at. The Amazing Race has consistently been nominated since the inception of the award and has a perfect track record of 11 nominations by far. Project Runway meanwhile has been nominated 9 times, Dancing with the Stars got in eight times, while one time winner Top Chef  has stayed in this category for the past seven years. Thus, it’s easy to assume all will be getting in easily again. And then there’s current champion The Voice. With no other singing competition in the mix right now (Idol hew?), it’ll easily grab a spot as well and try to be the other multiple winning show here. Now as for the last spot, I’d say it’s between Fox’s So You Think You Can Dance and Survivor from CBS. SYTYCD has been nommed here for the last three years and it makes sense that we’ll have the same line up again considering how barren this category is, but Survivor has achieved a creative resurgence in terms of critical and commercial aspects that I think this once 4x nominee will make a comeback since it last got in back in 2006.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:

Variety Host

• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars
• Anthony Bourdain, “The Taste
• Carson Daly, “The Voice
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night

Seventh nominee: Phil Keoghan, “The Amazing Race

Despite six slots in contention this year, this still feels like a very crowded race. Probably it’s because they combined reality show with reality competition hosts in here. Let’s start with the last two champs in this category: 2011 winner Tom Bergeron and last year’s pair of winners, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn. With both their shows still showing signs of strength in the Reality/Competition category, I think they are shoo-ins thus far. Cat Deeley seems like another good bet, though I won’t be surprised if both she and her show would miss this year. Then there’s also Anthony Bourdain from The Taste. After getting the surprise nod last year, I think he’ll be a consecutive nominee for it. And while it’s no sure thing, I’ve quite grown confidence with Carson Daly because one, he’s the host of the current Reality/Competition winner. Second, he will be doing the Emmy nomination announcement and more often than not, it bodes well to one of the two announcers. Lastly, I’m predicting Jane Lynch to cross over with a nod here. After her last year’s surprise comeback in Comedy Supporting Actress, it’s clear she has her fans within the voting bloc. I think that will translate to a support here just like how Betty White got in here after being shafted in the acting races.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

Variety Series

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Seventh nominee:  Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)

There’s a huge chance we’d be getting the same line up as from last year. The only possible factor I can see making waves is if David Letterman’s retirement. And that’s a real possibility. But for now, don’t fix if it ain’t broken – when predicting at least.

REALITY PROGRAM

Reality Series

• Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
• Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives (Food Network)
• Mythbusters (Discovery Channel)
• Shark Tank (ABC)
• Undercover Boss(CBS)
• Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)

This category is very much confusing in terms of possible nominees since some winners suddenly get left out the following year. That said, I’m sticking with the same line up form last year except for the ineligible Deadliest Catch. In its place, I’m going with the NBC celebrity story Who Do You Think You Are? which was nominated also back in 2012.

There you have it! 🙂 Tomorrow, I’ll be going on the eight categories in the longform section (TV Movie, Miniseries, four acting categories, Writing and Directing). Do not hesitate to write your predictions in the Comments section as well.

And by the way, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Reality Competition Program   Leave a comment

reality competition
PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: “The Amazing Race” [CORRECT]
2006: 
The Amazing Race” [CORRECT]
2007: 
American Idol” [WRONG]
2008: “
The Amazing Race” [CORRECT]
2009: “
The Amazing Race” [CORRECT]
2010: “
The Amazing Race” [WRONG]
2011: “
The Amazing Race” [CORRECT]
2012: “
The Amazing Race” [CORRECT]

Let’s now move on to one of my favorite Emmy categories: Reality/Competition show. Since its inception in 2003, only two shows have won this award: The Amazing Race and Top Chef. As much as how stagnant the winners circle is, they have been more receptive to giving nominations to new shows though previous nominee Survivor can’t catch a break despite a well buzzed season while former perennial nominee American Idol keeps on fading to obscurity. Anyway let’s begin the discussion.

For the second year, two dancing shows are up for the award. It’s unfortunate though that these two dancing shows are the two longest episodes this year. Dancing with the Stars had their prom episode as their submission. It’s glitz, glamour, and fun with a lot of dance spectacles such as that leading one by Derek and Kellie. However, submitting their second live show episodes doesn’t help them much as it simply went on and on and on and on. On the other hand, submitting the finale episode didn’t work for So You Think You Can Dance as well, as there’s not much competition that happened since it’s just an exhibition of their best performances all season. There’s an Emmy shoutout though, from Nigel Lythgoe, and maybe that’s a wink to these Emmy voters.

Top Chef submitted the top three episode where in they went to Alaska. It was a heart tugging extended episode where the challenge involved cooking a dish that inspired them to be the chefs they were. It also added the reality factor when Joshua, one of the remaining contestants, is anxious since her wife who’s on the other side of America is going into labor. It’s a pretty intense episode that can charm votes from Emmy people.

Intense can also be applied to the Project Runway episode since it started with the aftermath of a contestant who voluntarily left the contest followed by another one who wants to do the same. This led to the comeback of an eliminated contestant already. The challenge for this episode is about a casual wear for a busy woman who’s flaw free day and night and has Hayden Panettiere as its guest judge.

Current winner The Amazing Race submitted its second Botswana episode with some very intense tasks such as the diving in a crocodile swamped lake, delivering goats on the said lake, and guiding two donkeys with a carrot among other things. It also added extra drama when teams were stopped by police due to overspeeding, a team getting lost, and the elimination results too. While I think it’s not the season’s best episode, it’s pretty much a jam packed episode that for sure will be competitive,

And lastly there’s The Voice. They submitted the first Blind Auditions for the fourth season which featured new coaches Shakira and Usher. With two eligible seasons this year, it is wise of The Voice team to go with their most buzzed parts of the contest: the Blind Auditions. It also added the fresh faces of two more Grammy winning artists, and it featured the audition piece of the season’s eventual winner. Being the newest member of this category, it also is the most buzzed show in this group which can help.

All in all, I don’t know if there will be changes here, but it will probably be an easy win for The Amazing Race again. The only one I can see them going for as an alternate is The Voice but for the most part, it will add another trophy to the Amazing Race’s Emmy streak.

Prediction: The Amazing Race”
Runner-Up: The Voice

Full Rankings:
1. The Amazing Race”
2. “The Voice
3. “Top Chef”
4. “Dancing with the Stars
5. “So You Think You Can Dance
6. “Project Runway”

To check out other Emmy predictions, you can check them here.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl