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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

actor comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development[WRONG]
2006:
Steve Carell, “The OfficeWRONG]
2007:
Steve Carell, “The Office[WRONG]
2008:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock[CORRECT]
2010:
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm[WRONG]
2011:
Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2012: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” [WRONG]

Now it’s time to dissect the last acting category of the year, and at the forefront are the six funny men of comedy. This is a fairly weak category, though I love the inclusions of Jason Bateman who managed to get in despite the lacking presence of Arrested Development this season and Matt LeBlanc since I’m a big Friends fanboy, and I love seeing them rewarded for anything post-show. Sadly though, there’s not enough space left for New Girl‘s Jake Johnson who was lauded for his career best work last season. Anyway, ;et’s go to the nominees.

Alec Baldwin is in for the last time for his stint in 30 Rock. After winning in 2008 and 2009, he stopped submitting competitive episode (at times because he want co-nominees to win or maybe he stopped bothering at all). The same can be said for his submission this year A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World, where in he’s in the B storyline of the episode. With that said, Baldwin is still a force of a name in television and he’s the only person who won seven straight years at the SAGs. So that might account to something.

Oscar nominee Don Cheadle receives a second consecutive nod for House of Lies. Truth be told, I’m not the biggest fan of the show, as its humor simply doesn’t stick with me. However, I have to give him credit for coming up with a submission that at least made me chuckled. It’s a vast improvement from his submission last year. I’d still put him dead last though and stick by the idea that he just got in for his movie star status.

Surviving the Arrested Development snub is lead star Jason Bateman. Bateman benefits from the character-centric nature of the season, as he shines with the most screentime in this category. As for his submission Flight of the Phoenix, I think it did not do him any favors that his Michael is far from the typical Michael that we’ve seen from the past season. In this one, he’s clingy, desperate and unlikable which does not work well in his favor.

Aside from Alec Baldwin, Jim Parsons  is also gunning for his third Emmy win in this category. But unlike Jack Donaghy, Parsons clearly knows what to submit. He went for a throwback drunk episode which puts him the win n this category in 2010 for The Pants Alternative. By submitting The Habitation Configuration, that makes him an easy frontrunner in this category.

Matt LeBlanc is in a different situation altogether. Despite gaining no buzz for the show, they still manage to reap nods for writing and acting the same way they did two years ago. That says something with how popular the show is towards the people that matter (the nominating and voting people).  In his submission, he was in a conflicted situation as he force to give his agent a car, until the secret behind his act was revealed. LeBlanc played this role well, and I think it’s unwise to underestimate him.

And then there’s Louis CK. As each year passes, the love for his show Louie increases. Just for this year alone, he collected a total of nine nominations. With that said, I don’t know how big of a hard on the Emmys has on him since the nature of his show has a history of not winning for acting. If another Emmy favorite Larry David can’t snatch one for Curb Your Enthusiasm, then I’m adamant that they’ll lean to Louis CK’s performance. I really can’t think of a solid way to describe his chances.

I guess in the end it’s a battle of the first one to enter the three time category winners. On one hand, there’s Alec Baldwin who’s on his last shot to do so. I don’t think Baldwin can be stopped by a weak submission especially since this is their last shot to reward him. However, Jim Parsons is enjoying an all time high of critical and commercial love for the show. If anything, he can be the token recognition of Emmys acknowledging the show. But then again, I’m pretty sure 30 Rock is bound to win something, and since it did not happen with Stritch, and I’m thisclose to moving Louis CK as my winner in Writing, then this category makes sense. I go back and forth with the two, but I guess I’d go with Baldwin.

Prediction: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
Runner-Up: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory

Full Rankings:
1. Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
2. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
3. Louis CK, “Louie
4. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
5. Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development
6. Don Cheadle, “Louie

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

supp actress comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Doris Roberts, “Everybody Loves Raymond[CORRECT]
2006:
Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl[WRONG]
2007:
Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl[CORRECT]
2008:
Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty[WRONG]
2009:
Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies[CORRECT]
2010:
Jane Lynch, “Glee[CORRECT]
2011:
Jane Lynch, “Glee[WRONG]
2012:
Kathryn Joosten “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]

After supporting actor in a comedy series, let’s give the moment to the ladies now by tackling their counterparts: comedy’s supporting actresses. This year, we have a boatload of nominees here, as this category expanded to seven. And despite that, Arrested Development’s Jessica Walter still find herself with no nomination for the show’s fourth season. Poor Lucille.

Anyway, let’s begin with the cable ladies. Merritt Wever picked up a consecutive nod for her performance in Nurse Jackie. Truth be told, this late surge of love for her is something that I did not see coming at all. If anything, this would have made more sense during the show’s first season when the show was nominated for the top award. In her episode Teachable Moments, she wasn’t given much to do, and while she has the occasional snarks here and there, she’s relegated to a weak and unmemorable storyline.

Over at HBO, Anna Chlumsky is another of those who received a surprising nod. With the entire false buzz regarding her back and forth change of submission, it’s nice to see her stick with First Response. In this episode, she gets crazier than usual, as she refuses to let loose when Veep Meyer was in for an interview by Alison Janney’s character. However, this episode appeals more to those actual fans of the show.

Then we have a series of returning kids. Not only that, but they share the same first name as well. First, you have Jane Krakowski who submitted the hour long submission. While this gave her double screentime, it doesn’t put her to much advantage as compared to the Modern Family women who have, unintentionally, two submissions each. To be fair though, her song at the end of her long episode is one that will certainly bring votes her way.

After a year of snub, 2010 winner Jane Lynch is also back in contention. Sadly for her, she has been relegated to near guest-star status in terms of exposure in the show this season. In her episode Feuds though, we get to see her channel her inner Nicki Minaj with her Starship numbers with complete costume, wigs, and shiny lights to boot. Aside from that though, there’s nothing left for her submission to think that it runs for 42 minutes. Not her fault though.

Sofia Vergara has a reputation of a bad Emmy submitter. It all started when she submitted Not In My House in 2010, and it even solidified when she followed it with Slow Down Your Neighbors the following year. To her credit though, she made stronger choices since then such as her Tableau Vivant last year, and this year’s Yard Sale. In this episode, she gets to show some flashback about her beauty pageant years and perform puppetry at the end of her episode. Her only battle though is that the Emmys love her co-star better, so she can play second fiddle to her again.

Speaking of co-star, Julie Bowen is aiming for a three-peat this year. After submitting My Hero, it’s pretty clear that her team already mastered the art of finding what Emmy voters find in her character. In this episode, she has the heart and the laughs. And she is (unintentionally) helped once again by co-star Vergara’s tape. While I wouldn’t hate Julie Bowen just because she’s the one who keeps on winning here, she can be the Brad Garrett to Sofia Vergara’s Peter Boyle.

Lastly, there’s The Big Bang Theory’s Mayim Bialik. After being open last year that it was not her choice for a submission and that the networks opted for her, it seemed more in-synch with her this year, as she gets to pretend that she’s sick in her submission The Fish Guts Displacement. This episode is a showcase for her, though I don’t think it’s as strong as it perceived to be. She might benefit from having majority of her scenes interacting with Jim Parsons though, and she does a lot of physical comedy here.

As for who’s gonna win here, while I don’t think it’s out of the realm to see Sofia Vergara or Mayim Bialik pull a win here, it ultimately boils down to Julie Bowen for a three-peat or Jane Krakowski as the show’s farewell acting win ala Megan Mullally in 2006. For the meantime, I don’t see a slowdown of MF domination in the supporting categories, so I’ll be predicting Julie Bowen instead.

Prediction: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
Runner-Up: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock

Full Rankings:
1. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
2. Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock
3. Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
4.Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
5. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep
6. Merritt Wever, “Nurse Jackie
7. Jane Lynch, “Glee

To see other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

The Big Bang Theory continues to dominate the ratings game, and it seems to fill in the “traditional sitcom” slot opted to one of the nominees every year in this category. As a matter of fact, that seems to be the only thing in their favor now as overall reception was that it was a weak season, and the nomination is purely because of lazy writing. When the types of Louie and Parks and Recreation gets snubbed in favor of highly rated shows, that’s when backlash begins. Seems like for this year, this is the show that takes the cake for the most bashed nomination award.

Curb Your Enthusiasm finished in another eligibility season, and of course easily makes it in the series line up. The thing with this show is that it’s the type of show that voters love to nominate but never give any award to. As a matter of fact, since its inception a decade ago, the total number of Emmys it received is one. It seems as though the pattern will be the same this year, though what’s working in its favor is that if it still loses, this will be the show that got the most nominations in this category yet still loses every single one of them. For that alone (and a little bit of weak competition), I expect that this is one of the years with their closest shot for a win.

Many shows comparably put Girls in the same sentence as “Sex and the City.” And while there can be some similarities you can see about the two, one thing you can add to that list is their Emmy fate. This year, Girls got 5 noms and four of them were for creator Lena Dunham. If it’s any indication, all the nominations this year were to recognize that the show existed and for Dunham as being the it girl of the year. With that being said, it’s the only show among this roster to get acting, writing, and directing nods so that probably says support to an extent. However, I think they will be waiting for the next few years first before giving this show the crown.

Current two time champ Modern Family is still in contention for a threepeat this year. While consensus say that this is the show’s weakest season, that still did not stop them from giving the show a boatload of nomination including seven for acting which includes all noms for the main adult cast of the show. It also got two directing nods, and while there is no writing nomination this year, it seems like the Modern Family train is still not stopping in terms of Emmy reception. With that said, it is easy to say that the show will win another trip on the way to the podium as they receive their third Comedy Series plum this year.

30 Rock is a former three time winner who gets consistently nominated all the years it is eligible for the top award. While the same happened again this year, this now remains to be the show that they will consistently nominate even if it has no chance on bagging the top trophy. The good thing about though is that this season definitely merits another Comedy Series as we get to see a resurgence of the top 30 Rock quality that gave the show Comedy Series Emmys. With their impending final season next year, they might be more competitive for a 4th win battle (between Modern Family) next year, but they sadly will sit this one out this year.

Veep, the surprising third HBO show to get a nomination in this category, happens to be this political themed show starring Julia Louis Dreyfus and helmed by Armando Iannucci. I think those two names alone plus HBO as the home company propelled this little show all the way to the top trophy nomination. With only three nomination under its belt this year, I see it follow the same pattern as Girls. The nomination serves as a way of the Emmy people to recognize that the show exists, and given the confidence that their next seasons will be better in terms of awards recognition.

Like what I said, both perceived frontrunners Louis and Parks and Recreation missed the nod this year, With that said, it’s an easy threepeat for Modern Family thinking there’s no solid alternate again for the show to be unseated. Lucky family, I must say.

Prediction: Modern Family
Dark Horse: Curb Your Enthusiasm


Complete Predictions:
1. Modern Family
2. Curb Your Enthusiasm
3. Girls
4. 30 Rock
5. The Big Bang Theory
6. Veep

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (Live from Studio 6H)
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” (Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments)
• Louis CK, “Louie” (Duckling)
• Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” (Frodo’s Headshots)
• Larry David “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Palestinian Chicken)
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Werewolf Transformation)

Alec Baldwin is on his sixth nomination and had won twice already. While his episode Live From Studio 6H is a good one where he gets to do various characters that’s reminiscent of his winning episode, it’s not a surefire material that will give him his third Emmy. Also, the fact that 30 Rock has been some sort of a perennial nominee but not the Emmys choice for any win (they have been empty handed the last two years) gives him a disadvantage. Maybe they’ll wait for 30 Rock’s swansong last year for him and the rest of the show to be competitive again. Don Cheadle is the newbie nominee in this group, and I think it’s a result of how weak the options were this year. House of Lies isn’t necessarily a funny show, nor his submission, the pilot, has anything new to offer. I’d even put this role in the veins of David Duchovny in Californication and Thomas Jane in Hung which were both snubbed for an Emmy nomination. His exception for a nomination is a combination of a weak competition plus his star status, but not even his Emmyless state will help him all the way to the podium this year. With Leblanc coming back next year, plus a plethora of new shows, I’d be surprised if he even managed a consecutive nomination. Louis CK will surely be the winner if we based it on whole season performances. However, given his submission “Duckling”, I think it can be a hit or miss for the voters. On one hand, he gets to have 40 minutes of screentime in his episode, and this one targets more of the heart than the laughs with him doing stand up comedy for the troops. On the other hand, there isn’t any LOL moments that one expects to see given the double screentime his episode had. I think he has some other episodes that were more competitive than this one, but its not wise to dismiss his chances altogether. However, with all his other nominations (a record breaking SEVEN!), he can easily be a victim of vote splitting among voters where they will reward him with an Emmy. After six consecutive nods and one victory in the Supporting category, Jon Cryershifts to Lead status and easily gets a seventh nomination. His episode is classic Emmy bait as he gets to lose his mind and suffers a breakdown with everything happening around him. This has a combination of physical comedy, one liners, and I see him very competitive since no one submitted a sure fire winning submission. If anything, dislike towards his show is what hinders people from dismissing his chances because he is so in the race. The Emmys love his Alan Harper role so much (to the point they nominated it last year over Barney Stinson), and with a surprise SAG nom earlier this year, I can see him winning all the way. Maybe it’s because they don’t love actors portraying themselves but Larry David hasn’t still won an Emmy for his performance in the show despite him being continuously nominated. Two years ago, I predicted him with that Seinfeld episode which I took as a sign that Emmy voters will eat up, and yet he still lost to Jim Parsons. This year, he again submitted the show’s best episode, and if overdue status is to be considered, then he’ll definitely have a chance again. He is funny in his submitted episode, but it does not cater to everyone and might be divisive in general. Voters seem to love Jim Parsons‘s Sheldon Cooper so much to the point that he won against Steve Carell’s last year, and despite strong submissions from a should be three-peat of Alec Baldwin, a last for Tony Shalhoub, and a Seinfeld ep from Larry David two years ago. This year, Parsons submitted an episode that highlights the wackiness of Sheldon with him not wanting to get a haircut from others because his usual barber is in the hospital. It features him suffering a semi-breakdwon while playing the bongos during midnight and visiting the barber with scissors on his hands. It’s not as strong as his first win, but I see voters checking his name off here.

There is no standout performance per se, so we might be in for a surprise, but the past four years led us to wins in traditional sitcoms. I see the trend happening this year between Jon Cryer and Jim Parsons; however, I’m giving the edge to Parsons to mark a threepeat in this category.

Prediction: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Dark Horse: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”

Complete Rankings:
1. Parsons
2. Cryer
3. David
4. CK
5. Baldwin
6. Cheadle

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Shiny Trinket Maneuver)
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family” (Go Bullfrogs)
• Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives” (Finishing the Hat)
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family” (Tableau Vivant)
• Merritt Wever “Nurse Jackie” (One Armed Jacks)
• Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Mick Jagger)

The third Big Bang Theory cast member who reaped an Emmy nom, Mayim Bialik is also the first female member of the cast to do so. I really think that she what it takes to win this; however, her episode submission is what lets her down. She predictably chose to go with the “tiara” episode, and while that is one of the funniest and most memorable moments of the season, the “scene” is too short enough to stand on its own and give her the Emmy. As a matter of fact, the scene is only two minutes short, and aside from one scene in the beginning, she’s missing in the whole episode. I call this is as a case of wrong submission ruining your Emmy chances. Current winner Julie Bowen is up for another chance to take a consecutive win in this category. After all, her submission involves her being drunk and fun, something that Emmy has rewarded with Emmys in the past. However, it’s not as slam dunk as her chances last year where she got two winning tapes that shows her range. In Sofia Vergara’s episode, she comes off as whiny and unlikable, and I don’t think that will gain her more votes in this category. While I’m fine with a repeat win for her, it seems she’s helping returning Vergara the favor of helping her win the Emmy this year. This one seems more of a tribute nom for Kathryn Joosten after her untimely death earlier this year; however, I don’t think it’s an easy win for her as some perceive. since we’ve seen time and again how nomination is the reward for those posthumous nominations. But then again, she’s Kathryn Joosten and this nominated role has already won twice before. Episode wise, she gets a winning trial scene where she spoke of friendship that she had at Wisteria Lane, and aside from that, she has her death scene in the end. It’s definitely the key to her win, and I think that’s where Emmy voters will go. Sofia Vergara has a history of being a bad submitter at the Emmys. During the first season, instead of submitting Coal Digger, she went with Not in My House. Last year, instead of going with Unplugged, she submitted Slow Down Your Neighbors. However, this year, it seems like an intervention was finally done and she submitted Tableau Vivant which highlighted her being jealous of Jay’s close friend. This, together with Julie Bowen’s submission, might finally be the year where she’s really in competition. Merritt Weveris a surprise nod this year considering she gets in while the likes of Jane Krakowski, Betty White, and Cloris Leahman were perceived as likelier nominees. However, her nomination should have come sooner than this year, as she’s giving Emmy worthy performances week in and week out in Nurse Jackie. In her submission, she’s looking for a new roommate, until Jackie decided to invite her to live in with her as she dances in the kitchen. I admit, there’s really not a laugh out loud scene in her submission, but every now and then, we see a winner that caters more on the emotion rather than the laughs (Cynthia Nixon, Jean Smart), and Wever fits the bill. Let’s not even pretend that the final graduation scene in the season finale will seal the deal for Kristin Wiig. After all, Emmys have proven time and again that they do not care if this is your last bid for the Emmy (Steve Carell, Jane Kaczmarek, Angela Lansbury anyone?). However, that’s just the icing on the cake for Wiig, as she delivers some of her funniest skits in the Mick Jagger episode. She was also present in all the skits in her episode, and probably has the longest screentime in terms of submitted tapes. That, plus her new A-list status after the Oscar nomination this February can propel Wiig to an Emmy win.

This one is really a difficult category to assess; the secret lies to what the type of performance voters are looking for. This year, I’m going with Academy’s favorite Kathryn Joosten though running on her heels is Kristen Wiig who can easily win this trophy as well.
Prediction: Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives
Dark Horse: Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live

Complete Rankings:
1. Joosten
2. Wiig
3. Vergara
4. Bowen
5. Wever
6. Bialik