Archive for the ‘The Normal Heart’ Tag

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Writing and Directing in a Movie or Mini Series   Leave a comment

Tit for Tat continues its 66th Primetime Emmy coverage by discussing the winners predictions for this year’s awards ceremony. Over the past week, we have discussed all the rest of the Longform categories from TV Movie to the four acting ones up to yesterday’s Miniseries. That said, it’s enough to finally close this part by completing it with the Writing and Directing ones. Unlike the pas few years though, this year isn’t much of an easy guess. But here’s what I think will happen starting in the Writing categories.

Emmy Longform Writing

For the Writing category, it’s really The Normal Heart‘s to lose. Larry Kramer is a well known name, and it was one of the more consistently praised parts when it comes to the reviews. This can turn into some sort of a career honor, but a very deserving one indeed. However, there are two more names that can challenge him for the win. First up, there’s Noah Hawley. If the voters prove that they are really head over heels crazy with Fargo, then I can see it sweeping both the directing and writing ones alongside its impending Miniseries win. I think it’s also wise to keep Treme in the conversation. Sure the miniseries hasn’t received much love during its whole course, but I can see this win validating a late apology from the Academy. After all, this category just surprised us last year with the direction it went to, so no frontrunner is really safe here. While less possibility of snatching the win, Sherlock received both directing and writing nods as well and what worked in its favor is that it only focused on one part of the series. Coven finally enters the race, but I think the nomination is its reward even if it has Ryan Murphy on the writing credits. After all, his other project is the one poised to win awards. Lastly, Luther scoops up its second Writing nod, but I feel it’s a filler more than anything else. That said, this category is really ripe for upset that I’m going to take a risk and predict Sherlock to win in the end.

Prediction: Steven Moffat, “Sherlock: His Last Vow”
Alternate: Noah HawleyFargo (The Crocodile’s Dilemma)”

Full Rankings:
01. Steven Moffat, “Sherlock: His Last Vow” 
02. Noah HawleyFargo (The Crocodile’s Dilemma)”
03. Larry Kramer, The Normal Heart”
04. David Simon, Eric Overmyer, Treme”
05. Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, “American Horror Story: Coven (Bitchcraft)”
06. Neil Cross, “Luther”

Emmy Longform Directing

Now while The Normal Heart is what I’m predicting for Writing, I think the voters will spread the love and give Fargo the advantage here. After all, it received two nominations in this category, but then again it can vote split its possibilities granted there are two options for them to reward to. The safer choice, of course, is The Crocodile’s Dilemma since it’s the pilot episodes of the series. But then, Buridan’s Ass has that very big climax gun scene that , in my opinion, is the better directed of the two nominees. I’m sticking with the pilot though. In the event of a vote splitting, then watch out for Ryan Murphy to win this one too. I mean I really won’t be shocked if he does win this since I think there’s  a large part of the voting bloc that will just go crazy with The Normal Heart and check it in all their ballots, so watch out for him. Oscar nominee Stephen Frears is also nominated for Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight, but I think his name won’t manage to bring him all the way to a victory, but it’s more than enough to natch himself a nomination. The flashy aspect of Bitchcraft might be appealing for some, though the nature of the episode might still be hard to overcome for voters. After the surprise overperformance at the Creative Emmys, I tend to think that Sherlock can be a dark horse in here.

Prediction: Colin Bucksey, “Fargo (The Crocodile’s Dilemma)”
Alternate: Nick Hurran, “Sherlock: His Last Vow

Full Rankings:
01. Colin BuckseyFargo (The Crocodile’s Dilemma)”
02. Nick Hurran, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
03. Ryan Murphy, The Normal Heart” 
04.  Adam BernsteinFargo (Buridan’s Ass)”
05. Stephen Frears, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight”
06. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, “American Horror Story: Coven (Bitchcraft)”

Now that I’m done with the longform series categories, it’s time to move on to the other areas. I originally intended to discuss Reality/Competition and Reality/Competition Host next, but since the submissions aren’t publicized yet, I’m gonna go ahead and tackle the four guest acting categories starting next week! Don’t forget to see the other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

Emmy TV Movie Miniseries Supp Actress

And to complete the four acting categories for the TV movie and miniseries categories, it’s time to discuss one of the most competitive races for this year’s Emmys. To say this is an embarrassment of riches is truly an understatement of its own. Supporting Actress is so stacked there’s no room left for the likes of Tony queen Audra McDonald as The Sound of Music Live‘s saving grace, owner of the Globe’s most memorable speech this year, Dancing on the Endge‘s Jacqueline Bisset, 2x Oscar nominee Janet McTeer from The White Queen and the Tony nominated role of Vanessa Williams in The Trip to Bountiful. As for the actual nominees though, we have…

Current winner Ellen Burstyn makes another bid for a back to back win. By now, her 2006 fluke nod for Mrs. Harris has long been forgotten (or not) and she’s finally been rewarded with a win here last year as the matriarch last year in Political Animals. That said, her nominated performance this year is a big departure from her winning one last year. In Flowers in the Attic, she plays a grim and strict mother whose strong beliefs control her daughter and her grandchildren. This is physical transformation mixed with a baity role, and if she can win one for Animals, she can totally win for this too.

We also have the trifecta of the American Horror Story: Coven actresses in this category. There’s Frances Conroy whose red tips demand your attention (and deservedly so). As Myrtle Snow, Conroy ends up being one of the most vital characters by the end of the season, though she’s at a disadvantage by having her character introduced in the middle of the season as compared to the other co-nominees here who were already featured in the pilot episode. Since I highly doubt that voters will watch the whole season of Coven before voting, I think it’s a con for her.

Angela Bassett receives her second career Emmy nomination by playing the fierce witch Marie Laveau who’s out to seek some revenge for her loved ones. Bassett was every inch a gay man’s dream character here. She’s sassy and she’s ready to fight right here right now. That said, I think hers is a character that is more appreciated by fans as opposed to one that garners awards and stuff.

The last Coven actress nominated is Emmy favorite Kathy Bates. Sure, Bates only has one Emmy under her belt, but she’s one of the four actresses who has the most number of nominations in this category’s history, and you know she’s bound to win one. There’s a chance that this might be the year though. As racist Delphine LaLaurie, Kathy’s character travels in time literally that is as she’s uncovered under the grounds. Bates is the first character you’d see from the previous season of AHS, which means she benefits the most if voters only check the first few episodes of the series.

Then there’s one of the biggest movie stars in the world Julia Roberts as she receive her second Emmy nod. In any other year, this would have been a surefire winner in this category and one that’s bound to sweep awards. After all, this is reminiscent of her Oscar winning performance as Erin Brockovich only that she’s in a wheelchair for the duration of the TV movie, so that makes her role a thousand times baitier. Unfortunately for Roberts, this is probably one of the most competitive years in the history of this category and while she’s much in the race, it’s not an easy win as one might think.

And in the midst of all these big stars, the last nominee is virtually an unknown. Allison Tolman gives one of the last season’s best breakthrough performances given the pressure of this Oscar winning role in Fargo. The reviews and personal citations that she has received all seasons is definitely a statement of how people are paying attention to her performance, and this nomination alongside these established actresses is just the cherry on top of it.

This category is really crazy. Aside from Angela Bassett and Frances Conroy, this could go to any of the four other nominees depending on which performance the voters will dig the most. The difference between the four actresses is so thin that in any other day, I might come up with a different ranking. That said, I’m going on a limb here and predict newbie Allison Tolman to take home the Emmy. Sure it’s a David vs. Goliath level of competition given the line up, but I think hers is the one that will elicit the most passionate response. That said, I won’t be surprised if they’d be carried away with Julia’s schtick, or Kathy’s in your face role, as well as Ellen’s costuming performance.

 Prediction: Allison Tolman, “Fargo
Alternate: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven

Full Rankings:
01. Allison Tolman, “Fargo
02. Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven
03. Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic”
04. Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart
05. Angela Bassett, “American Horror Story: Coven
06. Frances Conroy, “American Horror Story: Coven

You can see my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

Emmy TV Movie Minseries Actor

While it’s the ladies that were from and center yesterday, we now shift the spotlight to the gents as we discuss the Lead Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie race in our continuous coverage of the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards. It’s the third year in a row that I have a perfect track record of predicting the line up here, so I don’t know if it’s jsut the predictability of the race or just a good summation of who Emmy’s favorites were. Anyway let’s begin.

Speaking of third year in a row, this is Benedict Cumberbatch‘s third consecutive nomination in this category after being nominated for the second season of Sherlock in 2012 and the HBO movie Parade’s End last year. While His Last Vow rakes its biggest nomination haul for the series by far, I don’t think Cumberbatch is much in the race especially with likelier movie star frontrunners in here. He can count on an Oscar nod for himself though come January for The Imitation Game to be released late this year.

And while at the topic of Oscar nod, coming off from an Oscar nomination earlier this year, Chiwetel Ejiofor follows it up with an Emmy nomination, this time for the Starz  miniseries Dancing on the Edge. Sadly for Ejiofor, his nomination is his reward given how much the Emmys snubbed the show altogether (he’s the lone nomination from it). I would have wanted a follow up to the Ejiofor-McConaughey Oscar race tho had True Detective stayed to compete here in the longform categories.

But while we didn’t get an Ejiofor-McConaughey repeat, we can resort to the alternate one of a race between Ejiofor and Idris Elba instead. Both were twice nominated for the same two categories at the Golden Globes earlier this year: one is for Movie Actor Drama (former for 12 Years a Slave, latter for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom). The other one is for their respective roles in this category. Like in 2012, Elba nabs a repeat nomination for his role in Luther. This was confirmed as the show’s last season already, and though I don’t think it will chaneg the voting game, it will probably have at least a bit of an effect to the voting (…or not).

Then we also have Mark Ruffalo who’s enjoying a career best 2014 by far. Starting at Sundance in January for Infinitely Polar Bear to his run at Cannes for Foxcatcher in May, and the good reviews he received from John Carney’s Begin Again, he’s definitely on a roll. That said, his Emmy vehicle this year is the TV movie frontrunner The Normal Heart where he played gay activist Ned Weeks. After all, the current winner in this category is Michael Douglas for playing gay pianist Liberace.

Now to cap this off, it’s not only the Lead Actress category where we have two nominees from the same show. If the women has American Horror Story: Coven, then the men has Fargo. Billy Bob Thornton comes back with a bang in this project where he plays sinister Lorne Malvo. His is the more awards-baity character between the two as he’s the flat out villainess evil character here. The other nomination is for Martin Freeman, who plays insurance salesman Lester Nygaard, who was caught in the series of incidents involving him and Malvo. Personally speaking, I preferred Freeman’s performance more than Thornton, but between his two nominations, they might reward Freeman instead in the Supporting category.

While the consensus thinks it will be an easy win for Mark Ruffalo, I don’t think this is an easy win as one perceives. I feel that this will be a tight race between the two one-time Oscar Supporting Actor nominees. Ruffalo is seen as the obvious choice. I mean he’s a straight actor playing the gay lead in a TV movie with a strong political statement. If this was Oscar, he’s certain to be winning it already. That said, Fargo is the most nominated miniseries this year and the support for it is really staggering. If there’s anything this category loves more than portraying gay characters, that is rewarding veteran movie stars with wins here as evidenced by Geoffrey Rush in 2005, Robert Duvall in 2007, Kevin Costner in 2012, and Michael Douglas last year. I keep going back and forth, but I guess I’m going with Mark Ruffalo by a hair.

Prediction: Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
Alternate: Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

Full Rankings:
01. Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
02. Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo
03. Martin Freeman, “Fargo”
04. Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
05. Idris Elba, “Luther
06. Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge

Click here to see my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis. For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

Emmy TV Movie Miniseries Supp Actor

Hi everyone! You’re still reading Tit For Tat’s 2014 Emmys coverage, as I slowly unveil my winner predictions for this year’s Emmy Awards. Days ago, I started the whole series with Outstanding TV Movie, and it’s time to move on to the acting categories. Let’s begin with the supporting men of this year a.k.a Best Supporting Actor from the The Normal Heart.

Exactly ten years since HBO’s Angels in America dominated this category (with Jeffrey Wright), The Normal Heart pulled off the same feat by having four of its actors nominated here (poor Taylor Kitsch who really can’t catch a break). First off we have Matt Bomer who has the largest role from the Normal Heart guys here as Mark Ruffalo’s partner in the film. Bomer, in probably his most daring and bravest performance yet, got unanimous raves in his role for this film, and if this one only had a theatrical release instead, I won’t be surprised if he ends up with an Oscar for it.

Then there’s also Jim Parsons getting his first Emmy nomination outside of his 3x winning role as Sheldon Cooper. In the film, Parsons portrayed the kind hearted and the likable gay guy, and I felt this is a win-win situation for Parsons to take this role, and if the voters really do love him, he has a chance of taking a fourth Emmy for this performance.

Every year, there’s always a veteran actor that gets his due here in the Supporting Actor category whether via wins or nominations. In the past years alone, we have seen nods for Bob Newhart and Scott Bakula and wins for Ken Howard and Tom Berenger here. This year, Joe Mantello, the third Normal Heart guy, fits that bill. It also doesn’t hurt him that they all received an “Oscar clip” scene or two that worked well for all these supporting actors. I consider Mantello as the dark horse of this category and I won’t be surprised if he ends up winning it.

The last Normal Heart actor nominated here is Alfred Molina, who received his first Emmy nomination for this. While not totally a long shot, it’s quite surprising that Molina pulled this off considering he’s not a part of the central story. That said, his nomination mostly indicates the really strong support for the TV movie and the really weak support for Taylor Kitsch. I really don’t see a scenario of Molina winning though.

As for the other guys, we also have Colin Hanks of Fargo. This is one of my personal wishlists to get nominated because his isn’t that showy of a role that gets the nominations or the spotlight, so the mere fact he made it in makes me feel personally happy. That said, I think the nomination is his reward, and despite Fargo getting in 18 nominations (the second most after Game of Thrones), this won’t be the category where they will reward it with a surprise win.

Lastly, there’s Hanks’ Fargo costar Martin Freeman also getting a second nomination this year (aside from his Lead one for the said show, this one for Sherlock: His Last Vow. Freeman is getting some sort of a great year narrative, and with Lead Actor having a stiffer competition, this is the more possible of the two Sherlock acting nods. He’s also the only returnee nominee in this category after his first one in 2012 for the earlier Sherlock film.

Right now, I think this is Matt Bomer’s to lose. His character and performance is towering enough here to beat three of his co-stars and his two other co-nominees. That said, never count out the veteran vote for Joe Mantello and Martin Freeman’s double nominations to factor in the race. But I think both aren’t enough to topple Bomer here in the race.

PREDICTION: Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
ALTERNATE: Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow

Full Rankings:
01. Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
02. Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
03. Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart
04. Jim Parsons, “The Normal Heart”
05. Colin Hanks, “Fargo
06. Alfred Molina, “The Normal Heart

Two categories down, may more to go. Do not forget to check the rest of the 2014 Emmy prediction analysis.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Television Movie   Leave a comment

Hi everyone. Like last year, I will be hosting a series of comprehensive Emmy discussion and analysis as I predict 30 of this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards categories. It will be done in the next few days leading up to the actual ceremony on August 25. For this year, we will be doing all comedy, drama, longform, and reality categories as we learn more about the submissions for most of them. Let’s begin with one of the easiest calls for the night… Outstanding TV Movie!

Emmy TV Movie

 

After three years of being combined, this year marked the separation of the television movies from the miniseries. While this isn’t the actual ideal year to do that (given the lack of legit contenders for both), we still managed to come up with a decent batch of nominees here.

NatGeo finally had their first contender in the history of this category via Killing Kennedy, a topic that hasn’t been done to death among TV movies yet (note the sarcasm). This film, which was an adaptation of the 2012 non-fiction title, focused on the point of view of former Marine Lee Oswald leading up to the infamous assassination of President Kennedy. This film surprisingly has managed to keep its buzz afloat among the guilds earning WGA, SAG, and DGA nods for it. However, I’m inclined to believe that it will have a hard time getting nominated had there been a combined TV movie/Miniseries category this year.

The first HBO contender we have is Stephen Frears’ Muhammad Ali’s Greatest FightLike Killing Kennedy, I really don’t think it will be nominated in a combined longform category, and the only thing it has in its advantage is that from HBO. Heck this can’t even be compared to the lesser HBO films like You Don’t Know JackHemingway & Gellhorn, Bernard & Doris, or Live From Baghdad since those films managed to reap up nods and would have managed to have the prime HBO slot in any other year. This one is simply non-existent which leads me to…

Fret not HBO since we all know what your priority is. It’s Ryan Murphy’s The Normal Heart. Based from the Tony winning material of the same name, this is definitely the top tier contender from this year’s batch of TV movies. It has well known names attached to it, it is political, historical, and socially relevant. It is star studded, produced by Brad Pitt, and got really great reviews. Like there’s not much competition for it already.

Probably in its most successful Emmy nom haul yet (with 12 nominations), it really amazes me why Sherlock: His Last Vowrefuses to campaign in Miniseries and just choose one episode to pass as a TV movie. Sure the length might fool you, but in a year where TV movies are being separated from miniseries, this doesn’t make much sense. Then again, it probably won’t hear its name be called either way, but I guess they should consider moving to Miniseries in their next years especially given the weak competition there.

And the token Lifetime slot here goes to the 2014 adaptation of Horton Foote’s The Trip to Bountiful. It’s one of Lifetime’s stronger efforts in a long time, so a part of me is quite shocked that it only received two nominations. It seems like it was really just seen as the Cicely Tyson show than awarding the TV movie altogether.

By now you should have easily guessed what would win here. Yep, The Normal Heart will win this in a cakewalk. I think there will be at least a competition of some sort had it battled with the miniseries, but the separation is a blessing in disguise for the whole team. I really don’t see a scenario where it loses in the end, and for what its worth, it really is deserving of its Emmy win.

PREDICTION: The Normal Heart (HBO)
ALTERNATE: Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS)

Full rankings:
01. “The Normal Heart
02. “Sherlock: His Last Vow
03. “The Trip to Bountiful
04. “Killing Kennedy
05. “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

There you have it! Check in soon to see the rest of the 2014 Emmy prediction analysis. You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Miniseries   2 comments

Hey again guys! If you may not know (as if that blog header isn’t obvious enough), we’re still on our Emmy week here at Tit for Tat as we gloss over the possible Emmy nominees before Carson Daly and Mindy Kaling announce them on Thursday morning. Yesterday, I started this four part series of predictions by going over the Reality and Variety categories. This time, we’ll be tackling the eight major categories of the Movie and Miniseries genre. Let’s get started!

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Writing

• Dancing on the Edge (Stephen Poliakoff)
• Fargo, “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (Noah Hawley)
• Luther (Neill Cross)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (Shawn Slovo)
• The Normal Heart (Larry Kramer)
• Sherlock: His Last Vow (Steven Moffat)

Alternate:  Treme, “To Miss New Orleans

Well aside from The Normal Heart and Fargo, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction the voters will go to. I’d have Luther in simply because the last time the show was eligible, it also received a nod in this category. Then Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight won the WGA for Adapted Screenplay albeit a field of two only. Then what I’ve noticed in this category is that they love ’em British pieces. They might not nominate them for the bigger series awards, but the writing branch always have a soft spot for them; thus, I’m going with Sherlock. And lastly, Dancing for the Edge seems like a filler nod for either Writing or Directing, and I’m palcing it here since it’s less competitive than Directing.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Directing

• Fargo, “Buridan’s Ass” (Colin Bucksey
• Fargo, “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (Adam Bernstein)
• The Hollow Crown, “Henry IV: Part II” (Richard Eyre)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (Stephen Frears)
• The Normal Heart (Ryan Murphy)
• The Trip to Bountiful (Michael Wilson)

Alternate:  The White Queen, “The Final Battle

The two surest contenders here are definitely Ryan Murphy (at this point, The Normal Heart will just steamroll its way to a lot of nominations) and Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight because come on it’s Stephen Frears. And he’s a well known film director. Plus it’s from HBO. Fargo’s “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” seems like a good bet as well since it’s the pilot of the show, and I’m certain Fargo will get in here. That said, I’m predicting two episodes from the show to get nominated. Aside from the pilot, I also have Buridan’s Ass which has that major shooting episode (it’s Ep 6 for you casual viewers). It’s one of Fargo‘s most buzzed episodes of the series and I think it can penetrate the race. The Trip to Bountiful seems like a better directing contender than a writing one that’s why I’m putting it here instead of Writing. As for the last spot, I think it’s gonna be one of those epic fantasy episodes, so it’s between The White Queen’s Final Battle versus The Hollow Crown’s Henry IV: Part II. I’m going with the latter simply because of the name recognition.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Supp Actress

• Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Jacqueline Bisset, “Dancing on the Edge
• Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic
• Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart
• Allison Tolman, “Fargo
• Vanessa Williams, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Audra McDonald, “The Sound of Music Live!

What a crowded category. There’s like ten women in actual contention for this usually barren category. Let’s begin with the easy guesses. There’s Julia Roberts. In a friggin TV movie. In her wheelchair. Throwing papers. I can go on and on but you get the point now. She’s in. Then there’s Kathy Bates too. At this point, I think there’s a slow decline of Emmy love for American Horror Story in general that’s why I’m predicting her as the only supporting actress nominee from this show. If only this was a weak year or if AHS was in its first or second season (both are not), I’d be more lenient with her inclusion. Then there’s an unknown by the name of Allison Tolman? I know you’re probably thinking “Who?”, but this is TV’s biggest breakthrough performances of the season. This is a friggin’ Oscar winning role, and I see her even being the dark horse for the win. Speaking of win, Golden Globe winner Jacqueline Bisset is also in my predictions list simply because her role is something that is a regular in this category.And her Globe win, as infamous as it was, put her to some sort of public consciousness.  Current champ Ellen Burstyn is also in contention, and I think a repeat nod is possible. Sure Flowers in the Attic is no Political Animals, but this is the category that nominated her for a 14 second performance in 2006. They love her here. The last spot is between two Tony nominees: Tony queen Audra McDonald is the only redemption of The Sound of Music Live! and her current Tony good will might translate to a nod, but my bet is on 3x nominee Vanessa Williams reprising her Broadway role here.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Supp Actor

• Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
• Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Colin Hanks, “Fargo
• Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart
• Jim Parsons, “The Normal Heart
• Blair Underwood, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Frank Langella, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

This one is basically the extension of The Normal Heart cast with five of their men eligible in this category. That said, I’ll only be predicting three, as I don’t see anything beyond that possible. Of course there’s winner frontrunner Matt Bomer who is the surest guy from the show here. I’m also rpedicting Jim Parsons since it’s somewhat of a departure from him, and he’s current champ (in Comedy Lead Actor) that they won’t shy from giving him double nominations this year. Lastly, I have Joe Mantello since he’s “breakdown” moment is one of the most talked about. It’s a clip made for awards show purposes plus he’s a veteran that I won’t be surprised Emmys going for it. As for the other three guys, I’m going with Martin Freeman to repeat the same nod he got in 2012 for the previous season of Sherlock. I’ quite confident with Colin Hanks as well since he’s the only one that FX is campaigning here (which means no Oliver Platt), so that bodes well for his chances. I’m going with Blair Underwood for the last spot as Cicely Tyson’s son since this is a Tony nominated role, and I fail to see him missing here.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Actress

• Helena Bonham Carter, “Burton & Taylor
• Toni Collette, “Hostages
• Rebecca Ferguson, “The White Queen
• Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Whoopi Goldberg, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short

If the three other acting nominees are somewhat stacked, consider this the Debbie Downer of the group with the lack of possible nominations. I guess it’s safe to begin with Jessica Lange since she’ll easily be nominated for the show’s third season. She won Supporting the first year and was nominated here for the second season, and a third consecutive one is already expected. Cicely Tyson is a sure bet too. She literally translated her Tony winning performance and she’ll likely add “Emmy winning” too come awards ceremony on August. It doesn’t hurt as well that it’s also an Oscar winning role, so a trifecta of best Actress wins for this will be quite historic.  Then there’s Globe and SAG nominee Helena Bonham Carter. She was already recognized for this at the earlier awards show, and it’s not as if this category is full to even consider her missing. Rebecca Ferguson is the unknown here but playing the title role of a Miniseries contender doesn’t hurt her. I’d be more cautious if this was only a field of five, but it’s not. Emmy winner Toni Collette also has a bid via her failed CBS series Hostages. I expect this to be a repeat of Ashley Judd’s nom in 2011 when she got in for a more star studded line up. If Judd made it in a five nominee line up, what more for Emmy champ Collete? The last spot can either go to Whoopi Goldberg or Sarah Paulson. There’s a reason why Goldberg’s EGOT win has an asterisk beside the E, it’s because she hasn’t won a Primetime Emmy yet. Therefore, it’s quite clear Emmy isn’t totally fond of her, thus making me give the last spot to Sarah Paulson who is hitting some career best stride the past few years and was nommed in Supporting for the last two years.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge
• Idirs Elba, “Luther”
• Martin Freeman, “Fargo
• Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
• Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

Seventh nominee: Christopher Plummer, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

Okay so it didn’t sound as competitive in this category when True Detective announced it will compete in Drama instead, but it makes the prediction part easier. As for starters, the pair of British actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Idris Elba are likely to repeat their nods they got for their roles as Sherlock and Luther respectively. Both of them competed in 2011 as well. Then Cumberbatch’s Sherlock co-star and buddy Martin Freeman is poised to get double acting nominations as he gets one for Fargo as well alongside Billy Bob Thornton. Then it boils down to three Oscar nominees (and one winner). Mark Ruffalo is as sure as one can get, and he’s also one of the frontrunners to win for his role as the gay protagonist in The Normal Heart. While I keep on switching back and forth with Christopher Plummer and Chiwetel Ejiofor, I’d be giving the last slot to the latter since his momentum is pretty much fresher with his Oscar nod earlier this year.

OUTSTANDING MINI SERIES:

Miniseries

• American Horror Story: Coven (FX)
• Dancing on the Edge (Starz)
• Fargo (FX)
• Luther (BBC America)
• The White Queen (BBC America)

Sixth nominee: The Hollow Crown (BBC America)

Of all years where they decided to separate the TV movies and miniseries again, they went with this year goddamit. Anyway, both the FX series are sure things here. American Horror Story got in the last two years and Fargo is the de facto frontrunner here. Luther is poised to make a comeback here as well especially in a weak field. Then in the battle of large ensemble dramas, I’d go with Dancing on the Edge as the first one since this flashy period piece works well in this category. I’m leaning with The White Queen in my last spot though simply because I felt it has an overall mainstream appeal than The Hollow Crown, but all I know is that it’s a slot reserved for BBC America.

OUTSTANDING TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

TV Movie

• Killing Kennedy (national Geographic)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO)
• The Normal Heart (HBO)
• Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS)
• The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime)

Sixth nominee: Burton & Taylor (BBC America)

As if they still need to have nominees here since The Normal Heart is gonna sweep this away (and deservedly so), but for the sake of competition, the four other nominees here would definitely be Sherlock: His Last Vow. Why the show decides to submit here instead of Miniseries when they can compete now is beyond me. Then you have Lifetime’s The Trip to Bountiful. It’s an acclaimed TV movie and at this point, a Lifetime show is bound to get in so it being their top contender also makes it a surer bet. National Geographic’s Killing Kennedy is a buzzed TV movie as well even reaping nods at the SAGs for its lead actor, so with a divided field for TV Movie and Miniseries, there’s a huge chance of it happening. The last spot, which I call the HBO slot, is reserved for that lesser buzzed HBO TV movie. After all for every Game Change, there’s a Hemignway & Gellhorn. For every Behind the Candelabra, there’s a Phil Spector and for every Temple Grandin, there’s a You Don’t Know Jack. So for this year’s The Normal Heart, I’d go with Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight since it’s the more buzzed one than that other HBO TV movie Clear History whom despite having a more known cast, has a nonexistent presence at the race at all.

There you have it. How many The Normal Heart guys are you predicting in Supporting Actor? Can Whoopi Goldberg change her Daytime Emmy to a Primetime one? And how do you feel if NBC’s Rosemary Baby Suddenly enters the race? Pipe them in the comments section below.

Tomorrow, ready your tummies for the hilarity that will ensue as we discuss the Comedy categories.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl