19th Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions

On Sunday (Monday here in the Philippines), the whole actors guild will be handling out their picks both in movies and television at the 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards. The SAG is known as an influential predictor of the trends that can happen at the Oscars in the four acting categories. Also, for this awards season, the SAG will be the first among the four major guilds to give their awards. Anyway, let’s begin!

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

PREDICTION: Silver Linings Playbook. The whole ensemble is being campaigned by Harvey left and right with endless Q&As with the SAG voting members. It’s a tough call and I can see anything between Argo and Lincoln to win this too, but it’s difficult to argue with the safe contender.

ALTERNATE: Argo. The cast has TV stars in it (sure fire way of getting support from the TV community, and the film is directed by an actor himself. If the whole actors guild still feels sorry for Ben, they might throw him a bone with this too.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES / Mark – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker – “FLIGHT” (Paramount Pictures)

PREDICTION: Daniel Day Lewis, “Lincoln.” This is a done deal already. The actors clearly adore him especially since if he actually wins, this will be his third win in this category.

ALTERNATE: Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables.” He’s clearly a loved guy in Hollywood, and this is the role of his lifetime. SAG voters are warmer to musical and comedies here (Johnny Depp, Jean Dujardin).

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Maya – “ZERO DARK THIRTY” (Columbia Pictures)
MARION COTILLARD / Stephanie – “RUST AND BONE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
HELEN MIRREN / Alma Reville – “HITCHCOCK” (Fox Searchlight)
NAOMI WATTS / Maria – “THE IMPOSSIBLE” (Summit Entertainment)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook.” Lawrence is Hollywood’s current it girl. She shifts from blockbuster book adaptations and small indies such as this one. In this day and age that Hollywood young actresses are usually more knoewn to scatter their lives around, they won’t miss the chance to award an actress who isn’t like that.

ALTERNATE: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty.” Clearly, Chastain is known as an actor’s actor. After playing second fiddle for so many years, she finally gets to break through with a leading status.  See Viola Davis last year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel – “ARGO” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JAVIER BARDEM / Silva – “SKYFALL” (Columbia Pictures)
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr. – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Lancaster Dodd – “THE MASTER” (The Weinstein Company)
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)

PREDICTION: Robert de Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook.” de Niro hasn’t been awarded a SAG yet and we know how much the Actors Guild love to play catch up to the legendary ones. This is his first real shot since the SAG was established, so they might give him this one.

ALTERNATE: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln.” The same applies for Tommy Lee Jones too, though he already won a SAG as a part of the  No Country for Old Men ensemble. Plus, de Niro is the more respected veteran of the two.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
HELEN HUNT / Cheryl – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Charlotte Bless – “THE PAPERBOY” (Millennium Entertainment)
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly – “THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL” (Fox Searchlight)

PREDICTION: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables.” Anne is the more mature Jennifer Lawrence in terms of Oscar’s perception of how her career has went through. She has certainly paid her dues, and actors will likely fall over her dedication in this role of Fantine.

ALTERNATE: Sally Field, “Lincoln.” If there’s any actress who has the possibility of pulling an upset, it’s veteran Sally Field. Her performance in Lincoln and the narrative on how much she wanted this role will play a lot in her favor.

 

Outstanding Performance by a  Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Amazing Spiderman
The Bourne Legacy
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall

PREDICTION: Skyfall. The most acclaimed film of the bunch which highlights the actual complex stunt performances in it.

ALTERNATE: The Dark Knight Rises. Featured complicated stunt performances also, though Skyfall was just better received.

PRIMETIME TELEVISION

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)
WOODY HARRELSON / Steve Schmidt – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
ED HARRIS / John McCain – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CLIVE OWEN / Ernest Hemingway – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN“ (HBO)
BILL PAXTON / Randall McCoy – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)

PREDICTION: Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys”. Costner is a SAG-less respected actor in Hollywood who’s starring in his most lauded performance as an actor. He already won the Globe and Emmy, it’ll be an easy win for him.

ALTERNATE: Ed Harris, “Game Change.” Harris fits the same bill as Costner; however, Game Change was primarily the Julianne Moore show and difficult to overcome the lead performances in his category.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Martha Gellhorn – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN” (HBO)
JULIANNE MOORE / Sarah Palin – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING / Eva Delectorskaya – “RESTLESS” (Sundance Channel)
SIGOURNEY WEAVER / Elaine Barrish Hammond – “POLITICAL ANIMALS” (USA)
ALFRE WOODARD / Ouiser – “STEEL MAGNOLIAS” (Lifetime)

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, “Game Change.” Moore has been nominated for an Actor many times but is still win-less. She gets the role that is too juicy to be passed on and has won the Emmy and Globe as well.

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”. While Nicole Kidman is also Actor-less as well, I don’t see her getting her first statue for a TV movie. They‘d probably wait for a movie performance to give her a win.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)

PREDICTION: Damian Lewis, “Homeland.” Lewis is in a time where in Homeland is at its hottest and most buzzed moment. He can easily get carried with the overflowing love for the show despite being with a strong group of co-nominees.

ALTERNATE: Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire.” The SAG TV categories love rubber stamping their winners so Buscemi might just go 3 for 3 here.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
JESSICA LANGE / Sister Jude – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: ASYLUM” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)

PREDICTION: Claire Danes, “Homeland.” Probably the most contested category of the night, I can see everyone except Dockery having a shot to win. I’d probably go with the safe choice of Danes, as this is the performance that had everyone raving.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey.” Clearly, the voters love Dame Smith giving her an all time record of four nominations in one night. This is her biggest chance of getting a win.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock.” I have the slightest feeling that Baldwin will be dethroned finally but I won’t bet on that until it finally happens.

ALTERNATE: Louis CK, “Louie.” Comedy’s current it boy who can be rewarded for his writing, directing, producing, and starring credits in Louie.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)

PREDICTION: Betty White, “Hot in Cleveland.” The SAGs love Betty. And they love rubber stamping, so they’d go with her again.

ALTERNATE: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation.” Amy hasn’t won anything yet for this performance, and some good will residual love from her Globe stint might push her for a win.

 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Homeland
Mad Men

PREDICTION: Homeland. There’s nothing stopping the lovefest for this show, and this is their way to reward the whole ensemble.

ALTERNATE: Downton Abbey. The Brit factor must never be underestimated. Plus, it has the largest cast in the group.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
The Office

PREDICTION: Modern Family. With such an outdated list of nominees, it’s an easy third straight win for the cast of Modern Family here.

ALTERNATE: The Big Bang Theory. This is the current hottest TV show in the boob tube now, and if voters want somethign new, they can go with the highest rated cast in the group.

Outstanding Performance by a  Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
Sons of Anarchy
The Walking Dead

PREDICTION: The Walking Dead. I’d probably go with the goriest show in TV that features lots and lots of killing in it. It also won’t hurt that they haven’t won before.

ALTERNATE: Game of Thrones. Current winner can go for a consecutive win here especially if voters are more into sword fightings.

That’s it! Who are you predicting to win? Do not forget to catch the 19th Screen Actors Guild come Monday on Velvet, 9AM for the live telecast and 10 PM for the delayed Primetime telecast. Happy SAG day!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl