After the Golden Globes two weeks ago, let’s go to the other awards ceremony that awards both TV and movie performances, the Screen Actors Guild. With thousand of members that comprise the SAG-AFTRA group, the SAG Awards is an award given to actors by their own peers. This year, let’s see who’d end up winning the nude Actor trophy in 13 different categories.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

PREDICTION: Boyhood. This one is quite tricky. There are years when the SAG goes their own way and award the most ensemble-y nominee of the group (see: Sideways, American Hustle, The Help) but then there are years where the default Best Picture frontrunner just skates by (see: Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men), I think this year we’d get the latter and have the four-member cast of Boyhood take the top trophy.

ALTERNATE: Birdman. But still, we can see a scenario where Birdman emerges as the top winner here. After all, it’s a film about actors, and that might resonate well in this branch. With three individual acting nominations and an ensemble full of many prominent Hollywood names in it, a case can be made for them winning.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
STEVE CARELL / John du Pont – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Alan Turing – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
JAKE GYLLENHAAL / Louis Bloom – “NIGHTCRAWLER” (Open Road Films)
MICHAEL KEATON / Riggan – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Stephen Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Michael Keaton, Birdman. Keaton fits the veteran bill that this category loves to reward. He plays a struggling has-been which a lot would surely find relate-able. Plus, him getting this break at the state of his career is every actor’s inspiring story. This is very crucial to Keaton. If he loses this on Sunday, then it’s over for him at the Oscars.

ALTERNATE: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. He has BAFTA wrapped around his little finger already, so if he wins this one, then he’d surely be ahead of Keaton as Oscar comes in. This game is closer than what we probably think, and he’s very much into the race. Remember that his film scored an Ensemble nod even if it’s basically him and co-star Jones on the forefront.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JENNIFER ANISTON / Claire Bennett – “CAKE” (Cinelou Films)
FELICITY JONES / Jane Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)
JULIANNE MOORE / Alice Howland – “STILL ALICE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ROSAMUND PIKE / Amy Dunne – “GONE GIRL” (20th Century Fox)
REESE WITHERSPOON / Cheryl Strayed – “WILD” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, Still Alice. Let’s just stick with the veteran who hasn’t won this category yet. It’s basically a smooth train ride all the way to the Oscar so just prepare your speeches, Jules.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Aniston, Cake. Bleh who cares if she was Oscar snubbed. When half of the voters are from the TV actors guild, Rachel Green can surely still rake ’em votes.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ROBERT DUVALL / Joseph Palmer – “THE JUDGE” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
ETHAN HAWKE / Mason, Sr. – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
EDWARD NORTON / Mike – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MARK RUFFALO / Dave Schultz – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
J.K. SIMMONS / Fletcher – “WHIPLASH” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PREDICTION: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash. After working the circuit during majority of his career, a coronation of some sort for this long time hardworking character actor at the SAG is very much fitting.

ALTERNATE: Edward Norton, Birdman. Maybe a lot of these voters can remember a thing or two from Norton’s character no? He’s the alternate, albeit a very weak one.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Olivia – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY / Joan Clarke – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
EMMA STONE / Sam – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / The Witch – “INTO THE WOODS” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
NAOMI WATTS / Daka – “ST. VINCENT” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood. There isn’t even any competition anymore for this longtime working actress as she’ll just glide all the way to Oscar night.

ALTERNATE: Emma Stone, Birdman. Just because she’s the biggest name and the only possibility for a surge of Birdman love in the guilds.

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ADRIEN BRODY / Harry Houdini  – “HOUDINI” (History)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Sherlock Holmes – “SHERLOCK: HIS LAST VOW” (PBS)
RICHARD JENKINS / Henry Kitteridge – “OLIVE KITTERIDGE” (HBO)
MARK RUFFALO / Ned Weeks – “THE NORMAL HEART” (HBO)
BILLY BOB THORNTON / Lorne Malvo – “FARGO” (FX)

PREDICTION:Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo. He’s the only Fargo acting nomination this year so that might be a bit of a reach, but there seems to be passion for Thornton’s Lorne Malvo, and this is a pretty weak competition he has this year.

ALTERNATE: Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart. After losing the Emmy and the Golden Globe, the whole of Normal Heart simply isn’t just resonating well with voters. But who knows, maybe this can be a substitute award since he’s not winning Film Supporting Actor.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ELLEN BURSTYN / Olivia Foxworth – “FLOWERS IN THE ATTIC” (Lifetime)
MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL / Nessa Stein – “THE HONORABLE WOMAN” (SundanceTV)
FRANCES McDORMAND / Olive Kitteridge – “OLIVE KITTERIDGE” (HBO)
JULIA ROBERTS / Dr. Emma Brookner – “THE NORMAL HEART” (HBO)
CICELY TYSON / Carrie Watts – “THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL” (Lifetime)

PREDICTION: Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge. I’m really not sure with this one as I had her pegged for the Globe only to see her lose, but she’s a respected veteran who has won Best Actress for Fargo in 1997 so there’s at least a precedent.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honorable Woman. Or it can just be like the Globes where Maggie does a repeat making her a strong case at the Emmys this year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
WOODY HARRELSON / Martin Hart – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY / Rust Cohle – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey, True Detective. So I’ve predicted McConaighey for the Emmy only to see him lose to Bryan Cranston. Then I’ve predicted him for the Golden Globe where he then lost to Billy Bob Thornton. I don’t even know why I’m predicting him for a third time. Maybe I’m jinxing him actually.

ALTERNATE: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards. After his Golden Globe win two weeks ago, is SAG following suit? If the voters aren’t really up for some McConaughey crowning, expect 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey to benefit from it.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
TATIANA MASLANY / Sarah/Coxima/Alison/Rachel/Helena/Tony/Jennifer and Various Others – “ORPHAN BLACK” (BBC America)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. I’m really shocked by her nomination considering how newer performances don’t easily get nominated that quick here, but she seems to be an actor’s actor type of performer who generate command and passion from her peers.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or might as well just stick with the current (still a no show) winner.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards

PREDICTION: Downton Abbey. None of these really strikes to me as a winner. Boardwalk has won twice before and isn’t winning here for sure. Homeland hasn’t but it has ran past its course. Game of Thrones doesn’t necessarily scream a best ensemble winner template even if it has a large ensemble. Thus I’m sticking with the Brits who pulled off this upset win in 2012.

ALTERNATE: House of Cards. If not them, then let’s just go with the only new  nominee from the bunch, even if it’s basically the Kevin and Robin show.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY ” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank Gallagher – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Ty Burrell, Modern Family. With no strong frontrunner here plus the fact that they love repeat winners in their TV categories, let’s just stick with the only man who gave Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock his only SAG loss.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Macy is the veteran of this group, and if there’s a lot of name checking here, he’d be one who’d benefit the most.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / Vice President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. This doesn’t scream to me as a one-time winner only so an easy repeat win for the current champ.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. When a striking scene-stealer makes some pop culture waves, the SAG usually bites (see Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson in Grey’s Anatomy), but if the Globes didn’t even bite to the Aduba bandwagon, it would take more than that to overcome Julia’s run.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Veep

PREDICTION: Orange is the New Black. For some reason, this seems like the Matthew McConaughey thing again. I predicted it at the Emmys only to lose to Modern Family, then I went with it at the Globes because it’s such a Globes-y thing to do to reward it and they went with Transparent. Maybe the 40 group ensemble would be enough to finally secure a major win for the show?

ALTERNATE: Modern Family. Say what you want, but this ensemble still works six seasons after. They have a perfect 5/5 record at the SAGs and if there’s one show who’ll break that record, it’s this.

You can talk to me about this on Twitter: @nikowl

 

So this weekend, the first “guilds” to announce their picks is also the largest branch in the Academy. The Screen Actors Guild, celebrating their second decade of handling out awards this year, is interesting (for the film side at least) as this will solidify the four acting races come the Oscars.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniel’s The Butler

PREDICTION: American Hustle. Sure it underperformed in terms of individual SAG nominations, but this film is peaking at the right time, and all five major cast members have won (and or been nominated) by the guild individually in the past. The film is gaining such momentum, and a large part of the praises it got was for its ensemble.

ALTERNATE: 12 Years a Slave. But of course never doubt the Oscar frontrunner. Many times in the past, BP frontrunner = SAG Ensemble. Look at the wins of Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, and even last year’s Argo. Sometimes the film is too strong that they pass over the notion of it has the best ensemble or not.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRUCE DERN / Woody Grant – “NEBRASKA” (Paramount Pictures)
CHIWETEL EJIOFOR / Solomon Northup – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
TOM HANKS / Capt. Richard Phillips – “CAPTAIN PHILLIPS” (Columbia Pictures)
MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY / Ron Woodroof – “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB” (Focus Features)
FOREST WHITAKER / Cecil Gaines – “LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey. It’s clear by now that the film has overperformed in this guild (getting in that surprise Ensemble nod), and McConaughey seems to be done paying his dues. For such a populist group, this type of career turn around is something they always acknowledge.

ALTERNATE: Bruce Dern. If not that, then they play catch up by rewarding veterans as much as they can. I mean Gloria Stuart in 1998, both Julie Christie and Ruby Dee in 2007. These are a pretty sentimental group, and if it takes them over, I can see them giving a token win to Bruce.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Jasmine – “BLUE JASMINE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
SANDRA BULLOCK / Ryan Stone – “GRAVITY” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JUDI DENCH / Philomena Lee – “PHILOMENA” (The Weinstein Company)
MERYL STREEP / Violet Weston – “AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY” (The Weinstein Company)
EMMA THOMPSON / P.L. Travers – “SAVING MR. BANKS” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PREDICTION: Cate Blanchett. Well she’s just gonna steamroll her way now to the win and she’s respected by her peers, so it’s a done deal now. Besides, she hasn’t won in this category yet.

ALTERNATE: Sandra Bullock. Like what I said, this group can really lean to populous at times. Imagine when Johnny Depp won here a decade ago for Pirates of the Caribbean. So if not Cate, then they’d probably go with Sandy. With that said, no one has ever pulled off two wins in this category’s history (not even Meryl), so statistics are not on her side.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
BARKHAD ABDI / Muse – “CAPTAIN PHILLIPS” (Columbia Pictures)
DANIEL BRÜHL / Niki Lauda – “RUSH” (Universal Pictures)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Edwin Epps – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
JAMES GANDOLFINI / Albert – “ENOUGH SAID” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
JARED LETO / Rayon – “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Jared Leto. After 12 Years a Slave, Dallas is the strongest nominated film of this bunch. With that said, this transformative performance is sweeping everyone off their feet, so I see this category as another stop for Leto to win (PS: improve your speech, man! More of the BFCA and less of the Globe one!).

ALTERNATIVE: James Gandolfini. One of the things that differ the SAG though is all 6,000 voters of both television and film are voting for this award. The TV people love the late Gandolfini so much that he has been nominated 10x in the past and has won three for himself already. They can give him this posthumous recognition if they opt to.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Rosalyn Rosenfeld – “AMERICAN HUSTLE” (Columbia Pictures)
LUPITA NYONG’O / Patsey – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
JULIA ROBERTS / Barbara Weston – “AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY” (The Weinstein Company)
JUNE SQUIBB / Kate Grant – “NEBRASKA” (Paramount Pictures)
OPRAH WINFREY / Gloria Gaines – “LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence. Okay so she won last year, but who the fuck cares? It’s J.Law’s world and we’re all just living in it. Again, it doesn’t hurt that this current it girl is both a hit with the public and critics alike. So yes, a consecutive win here at SAG (and possible double win for Ensemble too) is really likely.

ALTERNATE: Lupita Nyong’o. But then again, the SAG can be pretty receptive as well to newcomers. They usually do that with nominations, but every now and then, they give wins to them as well. Lupita is currently riding off a huge popularity within the A-list circle and everyone loves to root for the underdog right?

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
MATT DAMON / Scott Thorson – “BEHIND THE CANDELABRA” (HBO)
MICHAEL DOUGLAS / Liberace – “BEHIND THE CANDELABRA” (HBO)
JEREMY IRONS / King Henry IV – “THE HOLLOW CROWN” (WNET/Thirteen)
ROB LOWE / John F. Kennedy – “KILLING KENNEDY” (National Geographic Channel)
AL PACINO / Phil Spector – “PHIL SPECTOR” (HBO)

PREDICTION: Michael Douglas. Like Kevin Costner and Julianne Moore, Michael Douglas would have no problem winning the trifecta of miniseries televised awards for Candelabra. Besides, between him and Damon, he’s the veteran.

ALTERNATE: Matt Damon. Just in case they decide to go with youngster. It will be quite surprising though.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ANGELA BASSETT / Coretta Scott King – “BETTY & CORETTA” (Lifetime)
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Elizabeth Taylor – “BURTON AND TAYLOR” (BBC America)
HOLLY HUNTER / G.J. – “TOP OF THE LAKE” (Sundance Channel)
HELEN MIRREN / Linda Kenney Baden – “PHIL SPECTOR” (HBO)
ELISABETH MOSS / Robin Griffin – “TOP OF THE LAKE” (Sundance Channel)

PREDICTION: Elisabeth Moss. Well it’s quite the process of elimination here. Hunter would have stood a chance if she was not against her leading co-star. Mirren was a semi-supporting role in a panned series while Bassett gets that token annual random Lifetime nod. I guess I’ll be going with Moss given she’s pretty popular with her TV projects.

ALTERNATE: Helena Bonham Carter. I doubt she even cares at this point? Or that she’d even show up? But if people think she’s sort of due to give any speech (raise your hand with me), then there’s a slight chance of this happening.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Bryan Cranston. Is this even a contest? The other four can even bother to not attend the show anymore.

ALTERNATE: Peter Dinklage. For formality’s sake. He’s one of those respected character actors and SAG has shown some love for him in the past.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
ANNA GUNN / Skyler White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JESSICA LANGE / Fiona Goode – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: COVEN” (FX)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
KERRY WASHINGTON / Olivia Pope – “SCANDAL” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Claire Danes. When there’s too many possible alternates and in doubt, stick with the current winner.

ALTERNATE: Kerry Washington. They’ve shown lots of love to Shonda Rhimes actors before (back to back individual wins of Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson as for starters), and again, this is a populist group. So being on the highest rated show helps.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland

PREDICTION: Breaking Bad. Five months since its finale, it’s still the hot talk of the town. Also, their last chance of awarding this fantastic ensemble.

ALTERNATE: Downton Abbey. Or they’d just stick with the current winner. The SAGs love to extend their love for repeat winners in their ensemble categories.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
JASON BATEMAN / Michael Bluth – “ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT” (Netflix)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
DON CHEADLE / Martin “Marty” Kaan – “HOUSE OF LIES” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)

PREDICTION: Jim Parsons. Technically, he’s the one remaining representative of lead actor comedy here that people actually know. Big Bang is slowly climbing that guild recognition ladder, and this can be the good indication of that.

ALTERNATE: Alec Baldwin. Or just like the past seven years, why not give it to Alec Baldwin who NEVER.LOST.THIS.CATEGORY.SINCE.2007. I mean at this stage it’s even crazy that I’m betting against him. The man literally has won the past seven years. The only thing that will top that ridiculous statistic is that he can even win an eighth one for a show that lasted SIX seasons. Ugh you have no idea how I’m so tempted to switch now.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
MAYIM BIALIK / Amy Farrah Fowler – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / Vice President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis Dreyfus. Julia has been in a wild career peak now that it shutdown all this Seinfeld curse talks. The Ensemble nod for Veep gives me more confidence that she’ll finally win her first SAG since Seinfeld.

ALTERNATE: Tina Fey, The mere fact that they let the show  be eligible despite missing the actual number of episodes needed means they love the show.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Veep

PREDICTION: Modern Family. I’m actually not confident with this prediction, but they seem to have a huge amount of following within the guild. If ever they win, it will be their fourth and will catapult them as the most number of wins in the history of this category.

ALTERNATE: The Big Bang Theory. With nominations for both Jim Parsons and Mayim Bialik, the show is slowly finding their way to some guild respect. Besides, they’re the most popular show on television, and in this time where everything else is suffering from ratings, this can be a reward to them.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

With the Globe and SAG nods already announced, and three of the four major critics already revealing their choices, here’s the state of the race (and the last one prior to noms on January).

Okay one more month before we get to see the precursors. Sorry there’s no write up this month, since I’ll soon be updating for December, and this is a pretty stagnant month in terms of premieres and shake ups. Anyway, post your comments and questions below if you have anything. 🙂

PS: Best Actress is so effin boring there’s no changes at all for this month.

Here we go! October batch, as we get closer and closer to the precursors season. Also, Wolf of Wall Street is still in a deadline to meet for this year, and no such announcement was formally made that it will transfer to 2014. Until then, I’d just include it here yet. Plus, screenplay categories and foreign language film!

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Now we’re getting closer to the Oscar precursor season especially since Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals are all over. They all solidified some films’ and performances chances. Here’s the state of the race for this month:

 

 

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Marcia Cross, “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]
2006: Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” [WRONG]
2007: America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty” [CORRECT]
2008: Tina Fey, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009: Toni Collette, “United States of Tara” [CORRECT]
2010: Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” [CORRECT]
2011: Laura Linney, “The Big C” [WRONG]
2012: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep” [CORRECT]

Down to the last six categories for this year’s Emmys. Let’s go to the lead acting categories for this year’s Emmy awards. And we will begin with the funny ladies of comedy. For this year, shocking snubs went to 2011 winner Melissa McCarthy for her show Mike and Molly. Equally shocking snub goes to Zooey Deschanel of New Girl who was expected to reap up an easy follow up nom for the show’s second season. As for those who ended up with nomination, here are the six ladies in contention.

Since her win in 2010, Edie Falco has consistently received nominations throughout the four year eligibility of her show. However, with her intense competition this year, I don’t think submitting Luck of the Drawing will do her any favors. But then again, who cares? I think even she is not expecting an Emmy this year, though I’m fascinated that she still keeps getting nomination here and from the SAG Awards.

Despite the show’s cancellation, it’s really nice to see that Laura Dern managed to squeak in a nod for her work in Enlightened. Sadly for her, no one has won for a canceled season of any show in a long time in this category. That includes the one in 2006 where 4/5 of the shows won’t be coming back for the new TV season, the lone one whose show is still on won it in the end.  With that said, if you see the trends here, seven of the last eight winners won on their pilot seasons of their show. Dern is the only newbie here, so that might work. She submitted All I Ever Wanted which is an amazing tape on its own. But then again, it’s dramatic that it begs the question if they reward dramatic performances in comedy shows or comedic performances only?

For the second year, Lena Dunham picks herself an acting nomination for Girls. If last year, she submitted a lukewarm episode with the season finale, this year she did a good job of highlighting a good one by submitting Bad Friend where she got high with her close gay friend. This ended up with a confrontation with another friend and lots of cray cray stuff in between. With that said, I don’t think the nature of her character is one that you’d easily root for, and that’s one of the current trends we’ve seen in this category.  But still. I’d give her props for submitting her best acted episode.

Then you also have Amy Poehler in contention. This year, she puts her best foot forward in terms of submission by going with a two parter, which was quite a controversial choice. The combo of Emergency Response and Ben and Leslie puts her in a lot of screentime advantage as these are two separate episodes. It also puts Leslie in a different light as she focuses another side of her with these episodes. However, her character is from a Greg Daniels show and the last time that the Emmys continually nominated one resulted to no wins (that’s Steve Carell in The Office).  part of me thinks that Poehler’s Leslie will follow the same fate, especially since she’s still unrewarded and she’s on the fifth season of the show already.

Speaking of hour long submissions, Amy’s gal pal and best friend Tina Fey also submitted a longer episode by going with the series finale. Submitting series finale has worked for the then still unrewarded Sarah Jessica Parker in 2004 but not for the then already rewarded Patricia Heaton in 2005 and Debra Messing in 2006. Given how stiff the competition this year, I think Tina will be joining the latter instead of the former. After all, she has another shot at Comedy Writing which I’m currently predicting for her to win.

Lastly, current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus attempts to be the first back to back winner in this category since Patricia Heaton’s feat in 200 and 2001 for Eeverybody Loves Raymond. Submitting Running is actually an inspired choice since it shows her physical comedy plus an emotional end of the episode. Her glass door scene is probably the most memorable scene of all nominees combined, and it might be enough to pull off the win.

After some thinking, I think that this race is closer among those who have better odds of winning. I don’t see Lena or Edie winning it this year. BFFs Tina and Amy have better odds with their hour long episodes, and I won’t be surprised if one of them wins. However, I’m hesitant with Amy especially if she can’t win with weaker competitions in the past when she’s a frontrunner. Like what I said, Tina can easily be the swansong win of the show, but her chances in Writing are far better, That leaves me with the two HBO girls battling it out. If voters are looking to spread the wealth, then I can see Laura Dern getting a farewell Emmy win for this. But as for my actual prediction, I’d say JLD goes for second time at the podium finally giving her a multiple win for a TV performance. Veep made a good showing at the nominations this year, and this is still the best place to reward it.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Runner-Up: Laura Dern, “Enlightened”

Full Rankings:
1. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
2. Laura Dern, “Enlightened”
3. Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
4. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
5. Lena Dunham, “Girls”
6. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

The 2013 MTV Video Music Awards is just right around the corner, and this one is shaping up to be a good one for MTV’s biggest night. Now celebrating it’s 30th year of the awards ceremonies, appearances and performances by the likes of Katy Perry, One Direction, Miley Cyrus, Bruno Mars, and Robin Thicke to name a few. Also, aside from leading up the nominations this year, Justin Timberlake is this year’s recipient of the Video Vanguard award, and a rumored N*SYNC reunion performance is in the books this year. I know you’re excited for Joey Fatone and Chris Kirkpatrick. Anyway, here are my predictions on the major categories on who will end up with moonmen on Sunday’s ceremony:

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

* Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, “Thrift Shop”
* Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven”
* Taylor Swift, “I Knew You Were Trouble”
* Robin Thicke, TI, Pharell, “Blurred Lines”
* Justin Timberlake, “Mirrors”

WHO WILL WIN: Between the Video Vanguard award, the rumored N*SYNC performance, and his huge comeback this year, MTV is setting this up to be JT’s big night, and it won’t be complete if he doesn’t end up with the highest honor for that night. Plus, he still hasn’t won here yet, and it’s a great video to represent him here.
RUNNER UP: Taylor Swift. This is still a fan-voted format and Taylor is campaigning the hell for a win this year. Besides, the last six winners here are solo female popstars and Swift fits that bill.
MY CHOICE:  JT. Probably the one that stands out the most, thought that’s not saying a lot.

BEST MALE VIDEO

* Kendrick Lamar, “Swimming Pool (Drank)”
* Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven”
* Ed Sheeran, “Lego House”
* Robin Thicke, TI, Pharell, “Blurred Lines”
* Justin Timberlake, “Mirrors”

WHO WILL WIN: JT easily. It will be one of those sweep wins for his big night. This win will also put him on a tie with Eminem as the most rewarded act in the history of this category with three wins apiece.
RUNNER UP: Robin Thicke. Turning out to be the song of the year by far, they can easily throw him a bone here.
MY CHOICE:  Ed Sheeran. Let’s throw him a vote come on guys. 🙂

 

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

* Miley Cyrus, “We Can’t Stop”
* Demi Lovato, “Heart Attack”
* Pink (featuring Nate Ruess), “Just Give Me A Reason”
* Rihanna (featuring Mikky Ecko), “Stay”
* Taylor Swift, “I Knew You Were Trouble”

WHO WILL WIN: Taylor Swift. It will probably be an easy win for Taylor as she’s sure to end up with a moonman on Sunday. The only scenario I see that lets her lose here is if she wins Video of the Year inside.
RUNNER UP: Miley Cyrus. This song is peaking at the right time, and her legion of fans will propel this to a win.
MY CHOICE:  Rihanna. Probably the best video in this bunch. Simple and effective.

ARTIST TO WATCH

* Iggy Azalea, “Work”
* Austin Mahone “What About Love”
* Twenty One Pilots, “Holding Onto You”
* The Weeknd, “Wicked Games”
* Zedd (featuring Foxes), “Clarity”

WHO WILL WIN: Austin Mahone. Catering the left over conservative Bieber fanbase and opening for Taylor Swift can propel him to a win here.
RUNNER UP: Zedd. Clarity is the biggest hit in this group and he can benefit from that.
MY CHOICE:  Maybe Zedd. But where’s Macklemore and Ryan Lewis here? This would have been an easy win for them.

BEST POP VIDEO

* Miley Cyrus, “We Can’t Stop”
* fun., “Carry On”
* Selana Gomez, “Come and Get It”
* Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven”
* Justin Timberlake, “Mirrors”

WHO WILL WIN: Miley Cyrus. I think she has better chance here than in Female since her fans are the most active among this bunch unless…
RUNNER UP: this is still part of the Timberlake sweep so he can easily take this one too.
MY CHOICE:  fun I guess. I’m not a fan of most of the videos here.

BEST ROCK VIDEO

* 30 Seconds to Mars, “Up in the Air”
* Fall Out Boy, “My Songs Know What You Did in the Dark”
* Imagine Dragons, “Radioactive”
* Mumford & Sons, “I Will Wait”
* Vampire Weekend, “Diane Young”

WHO WILL WIN: No idea, but the combo of recent rise to popdom and being the most recent here, I’m thinking Imagine Dragons.
RUNNER UP: Jared Leto is on the show as a presenter, so that’s one assured nominee who’ll show up so maybe 30 Seconds to Mars?
MY CHOICE:  Vampire Weekend probably since they’re the ones I like the most in this group.

BEST HIPHOP VIDEO

* A$AP Rocky, “Fuckin’ Problems”
* J.Cole, “Power Trip”
* Drake, “Started From the Bottom”
* Kendrick Lamar, “Swimming Pools”
* Macklemore, Ryan Lewis, “Can’t Hold Us”

WHO WILL WIN: As a result of their good breakout year and as the other most nominated act (aside from Justin that is), this is Macklemore and Ryan Lewis to lose.
RUNNER UP: Probably Drake since he’s still 0 in terms of VMA wins.
MY CHOICE:  Can’t Hold Us is one of my favorite jams this year.

BEST COLLABORATION VIDEO

* Calvin Harris/Ellie Goulding, “I Need Your Love”
* Pink/Nate Ruess, “Just Give Me A Reason”
* Pitbull/Christina Aguilera, “Feel This Moment”
* Robin Thicke/Pharell/TI, “Blurred Lines”
* Justin Timberlake/Jay Z, “Suit and Tie”

WHO WILL WIN: With the VMAs being held in Jay Z’s place this year, there’s no better way to give back to Jay than by giving him the moonman adding up to JT’s domination on Sunday, so I say Suit and Tie wins.
RUNNER UP: Blurred Lines since it’s the biggest hit in this line up.
MY CHOICE:  I’d probably throw Pink and Nate a bone here and give them my vote.

BEST VIDEO WITH A SOCIAL MESSAGE

* Beyonce, “I Was Here”
* Kelly Clarkson, “People Like Us”
* Macklemore and Ryan Lewis/Mary Lambert, “Same Love”
* Miguel, “Candles in the Sun”
* Snoop Lion, “No Guns Allowed”

WHO WILL WIN: An easy win for Macklemore and Ryan Lewis. Plus, it talks about a hot topic that’s really rampant right now.
RUNNER UP: Beyonce just to make this more ridiculous as she wins for a live video. Oh and remember we’re in Brooklyn.
MY CHOICE:  Same Love is the best song here and the only one deserving of a win.

BEST SONG OF THE SUMMER

* Miley Cyrus, “We Can’t Stop”
* Daft Punk, “Get Lucky”
* Selena Gomez, “Come and Get It”
* Calvin Harris/Ellie Goulding, “I Need Your Love”
* One Direction, “Best Song Ever”
* Robin Thicke/Pharell/TI, “Blurred Lines”

WHO WILL WIN: Two words: BLURRED LINES.
RUNNER UP: Maybe Miley comes closest to Blurred Lines here. Though she’s far and away a distant runner up.
MY CHOICE:  Daft Punk and VMA only happens once in a blue moon, so why not grab the chance to vote for it?

There you have it! Are you excited for the 30th VMAs? Don’t forget to watch the show on Sunday!

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

We’re getting closer to the big announcement day eh? Since the last update, we have Neil Patrick Harris as the official host (his second stint), and we finally got the eligibility lists for all categories, and most of the shows have already ended (Veep is probably the last one remaining of the major contenders). Also, this will be the second to the last update before I reveal my official Emmy predictions a week before the actual nomination announcement. Do you have an idea who will be asked to announce this year?

Anyway, here are my predictions for this month, now including the guest categories:

Who do you think am I overestimating? Who am I underestimating? Pipe them in below!

And as always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

Photo courtesy of  Zimbio

In just a few hours, the 66th Cannes Film Festival is about to close. After almost two weeks of non-stop film premieres, the biggest movie festival in the world will soon end. And it is up to jury head Steven Spielberg, together with members Nicole Kidman, Ang Lee, Christoph Waltz, Lynne Ramsay, Naomi Kawase, Cristian Mungiu, Daniel Auteuil, and Vidya Balan, to reveal their choices on the winning films and performances for this year. It’s definitely one of those up in the air years, as there were a lot of films that gained positive response from the media and the Cannes audience this year. And of course, there’s also those surprising choices that came from movies that received cold reception.

I’ll give my shot on who I think will end up as winners in the festival this year. However, it is noteworthy to emphasize that it is really difficult to predict these things since there’s no trend to follow as the jury members change every year. But with that said, here are my predictions for the seven categories to be awarded at the closing festivities:

SCREENPLAY:

Prediction: Ethan and Joel Coen, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
As of now, the Coens’ latest entry is turning up to be the best reviewed American film of the year thus far (with a perfect 100 score), and Llewyn seems to be destined to win something in the festival. While chances of directing, actor for Oscar Isaac, and even the Palme d’Or (critics are comparing it to Barton Fink which won them a Director prize), I think they will spread the wealth and reward it with a Screenplay win.

Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, “Le Passé”
Farhadi is shaping out to be one of the notable names in festivals and his follow up to 2011’s A Separation also gained notable mentions from the critics. If Farhadi won’t win the top plum this year, then they can pick up multiple wins including this one for screenplay.

ACTOR:

PREDICTION: Michael Douglas and Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra”
While odds for a tie are slim, I’m predicting the team up of Matt Damon and Michael Douglas to pick up the top male plum for this year. It really sucks that this won’t get a theater premiere (which easily eliminates them from Oscar contention), but Douglas’ unanimous reviews (and even mentions of his all time best work) is definitely a shoo-in for an Emmy already. It’s also likely that it will solely be Douglas who will win, but with Damon working with Spielberg in the past, he can easily sneak Damon for the win too.

ALTERNATE: Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
If not Douglas, then one can expect Bruce Dern to snatch up the Actor prize for his work in Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. This can be some sort of a prelude to his possible Oscar season, and they can also tag team Will Forte as well, in case they give Behind the Candelabra a higher award.

ACTRESS:

PREDICTION: Adèle Exarchopoulos, “Blue is the Warmest Color”
If the jury doesn’t connect to a consensus choice of Blue… being the Palme d’Or, then it can find its way to recognition by winning the Actress award via Adèle Exarchopoulos’s unanimously praised performance. If the Damon/Douglas tie don’t work in Actor, then expect a consecutive tie here (after last year’s victory from Beyond the Hills ladies) between Adèle Exarchopoulos and co-star Lea Seydoux.

ALTERNATE: Marion Cotillard, “The Immigrant”
After failing to win this category last year for Rust and Bone, Cotillard can see herself in contention and even a win for this year, thanks to James Gray’s The Immigrant. Cotillard is a famous French star who has been a regular at Cannes for the past few years. This can also be The Immigrant’s win especially if the movie divides the jury.

DIRECTOR:

PREDICTION:  Paolo Sorrentino, “La Grande Belleza”
Sorrentino surprised everyone when he got overwhelming positive response for this year’s The Great Beauty. Reviews specify the good combination of breathtaking visuals and the strong direction, which leads me to believe that if Sorrentino wins anything from the festival, it’ll most be likely this one.

ALTERNATE: Steven Soderbergh, “Behind the Candelabra”
Soderbergh is one of the true Cannes breakouts. His career started out with sex.lies.videotape in 1989, and this could be a statement from the jury for Hollywood passing up on the film because of its theme. Also, Soderbergh hasn’t won in this category yet, and this can be his first prize here.

JURY PRIZE

PREDICTION: Hirakazu Kore-eda, “Like Father, Like Son”
Kore-eda’s drama about the nature vs. nurture of two children switched at birth was a hit at Cannes, and Jury Prize seems to be the most fitting category to reward it. Rumor also have it that Kore-eda is already back at Cannes, which means that it’s likely that the film will be rewarded for something. It also seemed to be getting raves from the jury with Spielberg quoted as emotional to the film’s theme.

ALTERNATE: James Gray, “The Immigrant”
Gray is such a divisive filmmaker. His works is always between a love it or you hate it. It’s either for you or not. With that said, I can also see a scenario where they give him the Jury Prize in order to satisfy members of Jury who wants it to be rewarded with something while also satisfying those members who do not like it, as it won’t get the top prize.

GRAND PRIX:

PREDICTION: Jia Zhangke, “A Touch of Sin”
Jia Zhangke’s A Touch of Sin seems to be perfect for the Grand Prix category. It’s not a total standout to win the Palme, but it gains specific supporters that can push it for this. He was also spotted already back in Cannes, and he’ll probably get something tomorrow.

ALTERNATE: Abdellatif Kechiche, “Blue is the Warmest Color”
I can see this following the scenario of The Master over at Venice last year. It’s the unanimously praise film that gets the jury pumped up. But since the top prize can’t win anything else, they’d have to settle giving the runner up prize to it in order to accommodate other noteworthy things about the film such as rewarding the lead actresses. It can be a battle between giving a sole top prize or settling for second with multiple mentions to go home.

PALME D’OR:

PREDICTION: Asghar Farhadi, “The Past”
And I guess the top prize will be given to Farhadi’s The Past. It’s French, it has Farhadi, it’s the conventional choice, it made jury member Kidman in tears after leaving the screening. The Past seems to be the logical choice that will not be hated; after all, it got solid reviews, it’s not as particularly polarizing from the other commendable entries, and you know everyone is just in love with Asghar Farhadi right now. While this is no sure thing, I can see this getting the consensus pick among the jury members.

ALTERNATE: Abdellatif Kechiche, “Blue is the Warmest Color”
Lo and behold, this is really the film that towered among everyone else in terms of critical reception. It has already gained buzz and world interest, and the reviews are really staggering and far and away from the other contenders. The thing though that makes it an easy choice to win is that the theme might alienate others. We still don’t know for sure what type of jury is this, and we don’t know if they’re really gonna go for something as bold as this to receive the top prize. But as always, it can easily snoop in the top prize if it gets the jury fired up.

That’s it. I’m really excited to see a lot of entries from this year’s batch, as it’s one of the most lauded in years. I’m also gonna miss Legend Kidman’s red carpet appearances and teaching everyone how it’s done. I’m looking forward to the closing and awarding ceremonies later. Now, who are you rooting and predicting to win? Post it there in the Comments section.

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl