Archive for the ‘awards’ Tag

21st Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

After the Golden Globes two weeks ago, let’s go to the other awards ceremony that awards both TV and movie performances, the Screen Actors Guild. With thousand of members that comprise the SAG-AFTRA group, the SAG Awards is an award given to actors by their own peers. This year, let’s see who’d end up winning the nude Actor trophy in 13 different categories.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

film ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

PREDICTION: Boyhood. This one is quite tricky. There are years when the SAG goes their own way and award the most ensemble-y nominee of the group (see: Sideways, American Hustle, The Help) but then there are years where the default Best Picture frontrunner just skates by (see: Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men), I think this year we’d get the latter and have the four-member cast of Boyhood take the top trophy.

ALTERNATE: Birdman. But still, we can see a scenario where Birdman emerges as the top winner here. After all, it’s a film about actors, and that might resonate well in this branch. With three individual acting nominations and an ensemble full of many prominent Hollywood names in it, a case can be made for them winning.

film actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
STEVE CARELL / John du Pont – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Alan Turing – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
JAKE GYLLENHAAL / Louis Bloom – “NIGHTCRAWLER” (Open Road Films)
MICHAEL KEATON / Riggan – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Stephen Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Michael Keaton, Birdman. Keaton fits the veteran bill that this category loves to reward. He plays a struggling has-been which a lot would surely find relate-able. Plus, him getting this break at the state of his career is every actor’s inspiring story. This is very crucial to Keaton. If he loses this on Sunday, then it’s over for him at the Oscars.

ALTERNATE: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. He has BAFTA wrapped around his little finger already, so if he wins this one, then he’d surely be ahead of Keaton as Oscar comes in. This game is closer than what we probably think, and he’s very much into the race. Remember that his film scored an Ensemble nod even if it’s basically him and co-star Jones on the forefront.

film actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JENNIFER ANISTON / Claire Bennett – “CAKE” (Cinelou Films)
FELICITY JONES / Jane Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)
JULIANNE MOORE / Alice Howland – “STILL ALICE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ROSAMUND PIKE / Amy Dunne – “GONE GIRL” (20th Century Fox)
REESE WITHERSPOON / Cheryl Strayed – “WILD” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, Still Alice. Let’s just stick with the veteran who hasn’t won this category yet. It’s basically a smooth train ride all the way to the Oscar so just prepare your speeches, Jules.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Aniston, Cake. Bleh who cares if she was Oscar snubbed. When half of the voters are from the TV actors guild, Rachel Green can surely still rake ’em votes.

film supporting actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ROBERT DUVALL / Joseph Palmer – “THE JUDGE” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
ETHAN HAWKE / Mason, Sr. – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
EDWARD NORTON / Mike – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MARK RUFFALO / Dave Schultz – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
J.K. SIMMONS / Fletcher – “WHIPLASH” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PREDICTION: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash. After working the circuit during majority of his career, a coronation of some sort for this long time hardworking character actor at the SAG is very much fitting.

ALTERNATE: Edward Norton, Birdman. Maybe a lot of these voters can remember a thing or two from Norton’s character no? He’s the alternate, albeit a very weak one.

film supporting actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Olivia – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY / Joan Clarke – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
EMMA STONE / Sam – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / The Witch – “INTO THE WOODS” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
NAOMI WATTS / Daka – “ST. VINCENT” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood. There isn’t even any competition anymore for this longtime working actress as she’ll just glide all the way to Oscar night.

ALTERNATE: Emma Stone, Birdman. Just because she’s the biggest name and the only possibility for a surge of Birdman love in the guilds.

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

actor tv movie

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ADRIEN BRODY / Harry Houdini  – “HOUDINI” (History)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Sherlock Holmes – “SHERLOCK: HIS LAST VOW” (PBS)
RICHARD JENKINS / Henry Kitteridge – “OLIVE KITTERIDGE” (HBO)
MARK RUFFALO / Ned Weeks – “THE NORMAL HEART” (HBO)
BILLY BOB THORNTON / Lorne Malvo – “FARGO” (FX)

PREDICTION:Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo. He’s the only Fargo acting nomination this year so that might be a bit of a reach, but there seems to be passion for Thornton’s Lorne Malvo, and this is a pretty weak competition he has this year.

ALTERNATE: Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart. After losing the Emmy and the Golden Globe, the whole of Normal Heart simply isn’t just resonating well with voters. But who knows, maybe this can be a substitute award since he’s not winning Film Supporting Actor.

actress tv movie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ELLEN BURSTYN / Olivia Foxworth – “FLOWERS IN THE ATTIC” (Lifetime)
MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL / Nessa Stein – “THE HONORABLE WOMAN” (SundanceTV)
FRANCES McDORMAND / Olive Kitteridge – “OLIVE KITTERIDGE” (HBO)
JULIA ROBERTS / Dr. Emma Brookner – “THE NORMAL HEART” (HBO)
CICELY TYSON / Carrie Watts – “THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL” (Lifetime)

PREDICTION: Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge. I’m really not sure with this one as I had her pegged for the Globe only to see her lose, but she’s a respected veteran who has won Best Actress for Fargo in 1997 so there’s at least a precedent.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honorable Woman. Or it can just be like the Globes where Maggie does a repeat making her a strong case at the Emmys this year.

tv drama actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
WOODY HARRELSON / Martin Hart – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY / Rust Cohle – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey, True Detective. So I’ve predicted McConaighey for the Emmy only to see him lose to Bryan Cranston. Then I’ve predicted him for the Golden Globe where he then lost to Billy Bob Thornton. I don’t even know why I’m predicting him for a third time. Maybe I’m jinxing him actually.

ALTERNATE: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards. After his Golden Globe win two weeks ago, is SAG following suit? If the voters aren’t really up for some McConaughey crowning, expect 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey to benefit from it.

tv drama actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
TATIANA MASLANY / Sarah/Coxima/Alison/Rachel/Helena/Tony/Jennifer and Various Others – “ORPHAN BLACK” (BBC America)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. I’m really shocked by her nomination considering how newer performances don’t easily get nominated that quick here, but she seems to be an actor’s actor type of performer who generate command and passion from her peers.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or might as well just stick with the current (still a no show) winner.

tv drama ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards

PREDICTION: Downton Abbey. None of these really strikes to me as a winner. Boardwalk has won twice before and isn’t winning here for sure. Homeland hasn’t but it has ran past its course. Game of Thrones doesn’t necessarily scream a best ensemble winner template even if it has a large ensemble. Thus I’m sticking with the Brits who pulled off this upset win in 2012.

ALTERNATE: House of Cards. If not them, then let’s just go with the only new  nominee from the bunch, even if it’s basically the Kevin and Robin show.

tv comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY ” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank Gallagher – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Ty Burrell, Modern Family. With no strong frontrunner here plus the fact that they love repeat winners in their TV categories, let’s just stick with the only man who gave Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock his only SAG loss.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Macy is the veteran of this group, and if there’s a lot of name checking here, he’d be one who’d benefit the most.

tv comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / Vice President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. This doesn’t scream to me as a one-time winner only so an easy repeat win for the current champ.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. When a striking scene-stealer makes some pop culture waves, the SAG usually bites (see Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson in Grey’s Anatomy), but if the Globes didn’t even bite to the Aduba bandwagon, it would take more than that to overcome Julia’s run.

tv comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Veep

PREDICTION: Orange is the New Black. For some reason, this seems like the Matthew McConaughey thing again. I predicted it at the Emmys only to lose to Modern Family, then I went with it at the Globes because it’s such a Globes-y thing to do to reward it and they went with Transparent. Maybe the 40 group ensemble would be enough to finally secure a major win for the show?

ALTERNATE: Modern Family. Say what you want, but this ensemble still works six seasons after. They have a perfect 5/5 record at the SAGs and if there’s one show who’ll break that record, it’s this.

You can talk to me about this on Twitter: @nikowl

 

20th Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

So this weekend, the first “guilds” to announce their picks is also the largest branch in the Academy. The Screen Actors Guild, celebrating their second decade of handling out awards this year, is interesting (for the film side at least) as this will solidify the four acting races come the Oscars.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

film ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniel’s The Butler

PREDICTION: American Hustle. Sure it underperformed in terms of individual SAG nominations, but this film is peaking at the right time, and all five major cast members have won (and or been nominated) by the guild individually in the past. The film is gaining such momentum, and a large part of the praises it got was for its ensemble.

ALTERNATE: 12 Years a Slave. But of course never doubt the Oscar frontrunner. Many times in the past, BP frontrunner = SAG Ensemble. Look at the wins of Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, and even last year’s Argo. Sometimes the film is too strong that they pass over the notion of it has the best ensemble or not.

film actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRUCE DERN / Woody Grant – “NEBRASKA” (Paramount Pictures)
CHIWETEL EJIOFOR / Solomon Northup – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
TOM HANKS / Capt. Richard Phillips – “CAPTAIN PHILLIPS” (Columbia Pictures)
MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY / Ron Woodroof – “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB” (Focus Features)
FOREST WHITAKER / Cecil Gaines – “LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey. It’s clear by now that the film has overperformed in this guild (getting in that surprise Ensemble nod), and McConaughey seems to be done paying his dues. For such a populist group, this type of career turn around is something they always acknowledge.

ALTERNATE: Bruce Dern. If not that, then they play catch up by rewarding veterans as much as they can. I mean Gloria Stuart in 1998, both Julie Christie and Ruby Dee in 2007. These are a pretty sentimental group, and if it takes them over, I can see them giving a token win to Bruce.

film actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Jasmine – “BLUE JASMINE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
SANDRA BULLOCK / Ryan Stone – “GRAVITY” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JUDI DENCH / Philomena Lee – “PHILOMENA” (The Weinstein Company)
MERYL STREEP / Violet Weston – “AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY” (The Weinstein Company)
EMMA THOMPSON / P.L. Travers – “SAVING MR. BANKS” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PREDICTION: Cate Blanchett. Well she’s just gonna steamroll her way now to the win and she’s respected by her peers, so it’s a done deal now. Besides, she hasn’t won in this category yet.

ALTERNATE: Sandra Bullock. Like what I said, this group can really lean to populous at times. Imagine when Johnny Depp won here a decade ago for Pirates of the Caribbean. So if not Cate, then they’d probably go with Sandy. With that said, no one has ever pulled off two wins in this category’s history (not even Meryl), so statistics are not on her side.

film supporting actor

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
BARKHAD ABDI / Muse – “CAPTAIN PHILLIPS” (Columbia Pictures)
DANIEL BRÜHL / Niki Lauda – “RUSH” (Universal Pictures)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Edwin Epps – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
JAMES GANDOLFINI / Albert – “ENOUGH SAID” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
JARED LETO / Rayon – “DALLAS BUYERS CLUB” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Jared Leto. After 12 Years a Slave, Dallas is the strongest nominated film of this bunch. With that said, this transformative performance is sweeping everyone off their feet, so I see this category as another stop for Leto to win (PS: improve your speech, man! More of the BFCA and less of the Globe one!).

ALTERNATIVE: James Gandolfini. One of the things that differ the SAG though is all 6,000 voters of both television and film are voting for this award. The TV people love the late Gandolfini so much that he has been nominated 10x in the past and has won three for himself already. They can give him this posthumous recognition if they opt to.

film supporting actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Rosalyn Rosenfeld – “AMERICAN HUSTLE” (Columbia Pictures)
LUPITA NYONG’O / Patsey – “12 YEARS A SLAVE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
JULIA ROBERTS / Barbara Weston – “AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY” (The Weinstein Company)
JUNE SQUIBB / Kate Grant – “NEBRASKA” (Paramount Pictures)
OPRAH WINFREY / Gloria Gaines – “LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence. Okay so she won last year, but who the fuck cares? It’s J.Law’s world and we’re all just living in it. Again, it doesn’t hurt that this current it girl is both a hit with the public and critics alike. So yes, a consecutive win here at SAG (and possible double win for Ensemble too) is really likely.

ALTERNATE: Lupita Nyong’o. But then again, the SAG can be pretty receptive as well to newcomers. They usually do that with nominations, but every now and then, they give wins to them as well. Lupita is currently riding off a huge popularity within the A-list circle and everyone loves to root for the underdog right?

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

movie mini actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
MATT DAMON / Scott Thorson – “BEHIND THE CANDELABRA” (HBO)
MICHAEL DOUGLAS / Liberace – “BEHIND THE CANDELABRA” (HBO)
JEREMY IRONS / King Henry IV – “THE HOLLOW CROWN” (WNET/Thirteen)
ROB LOWE / John F. Kennedy – “KILLING KENNEDY” (National Geographic Channel)
AL PACINO / Phil Spector – “PHIL SPECTOR” (HBO)

PREDICTION: Michael Douglas. Like Kevin Costner and Julianne Moore, Michael Douglas would have no problem winning the trifecta of miniseries televised awards for Candelabra. Besides, between him and Damon, he’s the veteran.

ALTERNATE: Matt Damon. Just in case they decide to go with youngster. It will be quite surprising though.

movie mini actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ANGELA BASSETT / Coretta Scott King – “BETTY & CORETTA” (Lifetime)
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Elizabeth Taylor – “BURTON AND TAYLOR” (BBC America)
HOLLY HUNTER / G.J. – “TOP OF THE LAKE” (Sundance Channel)
HELEN MIRREN / Linda Kenney Baden – “PHIL SPECTOR” (HBO)
ELISABETH MOSS / Robin Griffin – “TOP OF THE LAKE” (Sundance Channel)

PREDICTION: Elisabeth Moss. Well it’s quite the process of elimination here. Hunter would have stood a chance if she was not against her leading co-star. Mirren was a semi-supporting role in a panned series while Bassett gets that token annual random Lifetime nod. I guess I’ll be going with Moss given she’s pretty popular with her TV projects.

ALTERNATE: Helena Bonham Carter. I doubt she even cares at this point? Or that she’d even show up? But if people think she’s sort of due to give any speech (raise your hand with me), then there’s a slight chance of this happening.

drama actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Bryan Cranston. Is this even a contest? The other four can even bother to not attend the show anymore.

ALTERNATE: Peter Dinklage. For formality’s sake. He’s one of those respected character actors and SAG has shown some love for him in the past.

drama actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
ANNA GUNN / Skyler White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JESSICA LANGE / Fiona Goode – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: COVEN” (FX)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
KERRY WASHINGTON / Olivia Pope – “SCANDAL” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Claire Danes. When there’s too many possible alternates and in doubt, stick with the current winner.

ALTERNATE: Kerry Washington. They’ve shown lots of love to Shonda Rhimes actors before (back to back individual wins of Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson as for starters), and again, this is a populist group. So being on the highest rated show helps.

drama ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland

PREDICTION: Breaking Bad. Five months since its finale, it’s still the hot talk of the town. Also, their last chance of awarding this fantastic ensemble.

ALTERNATE: Downton Abbey. Or they’d just stick with the current winner. The SAGs love to extend their love for repeat winners in their ensemble categories.

comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
JASON BATEMAN / Michael Bluth – “ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT” (Netflix)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
DON CHEADLE / Martin “Marty” Kaan – “HOUSE OF LIES” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)

PREDICTION: Jim Parsons. Technically, he’s the one remaining representative of lead actor comedy here that people actually know. Big Bang is slowly climbing that guild recognition ladder, and this can be the good indication of that.

ALTERNATE: Alec Baldwin. Or just like the past seven years, why not give it to Alec Baldwin who NEVER.LOST.THIS.CATEGORY.SINCE.2007. I mean at this stage it’s even crazy that I’m betting against him. The man literally has won the past seven years. The only thing that will top that ridiculous statistic is that he can even win an eighth one for a show that lasted SIX seasons. Ugh you have no idea how I’m so tempted to switch now.

comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
MAYIM BIALIK / Amy Farrah Fowler – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / Vice President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis Dreyfus. Julia has been in a wild career peak now that it shutdown all this Seinfeld curse talks. The Ensemble nod for Veep gives me more confidence that she’ll finally win her first SAG since Seinfeld.

ALTERNATE: Tina Fey, The mere fact that they let the show  be eligible despite missing the actual number of episodes needed means they love the show.

comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Veep

PREDICTION: Modern Family. I’m actually not confident with this prediction, but they seem to have a huge amount of following within the guild. If ever they win, it will be their fourth and will catapult them as the most number of wins in the history of this category.

ALTERNATE: The Big Bang Theory. With nominations for both Jim Parsons and Mayim Bialik, the show is slowly finding their way to some guild respect. Besides, they’re the most popular show on television, and in this time where everything else is suffering from ratings, this can be a reward to them.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

86th Oscars Predictions: December Edition   Leave a comment

With the Globe and SAG nods already announced, and three of the four major critics already revealing their choices, here’s the state of the race (and the last one prior to noms on January).

bp

director

lead actor

lead actress

supp actor

supp actress

FLF

orig screenplay

adapted screenplay

86th Oscars Predictions: November Edition   Leave a comment

Okay one more month before we get to see the precursors. Sorry there’s no write up this month, since I’ll soon be updating for December, and this is a pretty stagnant month in terms of premieres and shake ups. Anyway, post your comments and questions below if you have anything. 🙂

PS: Best Actress is so effin boring there’s no changes at all for this month.

picture

director

actor

actress

supp actor

supp actress

original screenplay

adapted screenplay

foreign language film

86th Oscars Predictions: October Edition   Leave a comment

Here we go! October batch, as we get closer and closer to the precursors season. Also, Wolf of Wall Street is still in a deadline to meet for this year, and no such announcement was formally made that it will transfer to 2014. Until then, I’d just include it here yet. Plus, screenplay categories and foreign language film!

best picture

best director

best actor

 

best actress

 

best supp actor

 

best supporting actress

 

original screenplay

adapted screenplay

 

foreign language film

 

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

86th Oscars Predictions: September Edition   7 comments

Now we’re getting closer to the Oscar precursor season especially since Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals are all over. They all solidified some films’ and performances chances. Here’s the state of the race for this month:

picture

director

 

actor

actress

supp actor

 

supp actress

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

actress comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Marcia Cross, “Desperate Housewives[WRONG]
2006:
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback[WRONG]
2007:
America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty[CORRECT]
2008:
Tina Fey, “30 Rock[CORRECT]
2009:
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara[CORRECT]
2010:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie[CORRECT]
2011:
Laura Linney, “The Big C[WRONG]
2012:
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep” [CORRECT]

Down to the last six categories for this year’s Emmys. Let’s go to the lead acting categories for this year’s Emmy awards. And we will begin with the funny ladies of comedy. For this year, shocking snubs went to 2011 winner Melissa McCarthy for her show Mike and Molly. Equally shocking snub goes to Zooey Deschanel of New Girl who was expected to reap up an easy follow up nom for the show’s second season. As for those who ended up with nomination, here are the six ladies in contention.

Since her win in 2010, Edie Falco has consistently received nominations throughout the four year eligibility of her show. However, with her intense competition this year, I don’t think submitting Luck of the Drawing will do her any favors. But then again, who cares? I think even she is not expecting an Emmy this year, though I’m fascinated that she still keeps getting nomination here and from the SAG Awards.

Despite the show’s cancellation, it’s really nice to see that Laura Dern managed to squeak in a nod for her work in Enlightened. Sadly for her, no one has won for a canceled season of any show in a long time in this category. That includes the one in 2006 where 4/5 of the shows won’t be coming back for the new TV season, the lone one whose show is still on won it in the end.  With that said, if you see the trends here, seven of the last eight winners won on their pilot seasons of their show. Dern is the only newbie here, so that might work. She submitted All I Ever Wanted which is an amazing tape on its own. But then again, it’s dramatic that it begs the question if they reward dramatic performances in comedy shows or comedic performances only?

For the second year, Lena Dunham picks herself an acting nomination for Girls. If last year, she submitted a lukewarm episode with the season finale, this year she did a good job of highlighting a good one by submitting Bad Friend where she got high with her close gay friend. This ended up with a confrontation with another friend and lots of cray cray stuff in between. With that said, I don’t think the nature of her character is one that you’d easily root for, and that’s one of the current trends we’ve seen in this category.  But still. I’d give her props for submitting her best acted episode.

Then you also have Amy Poehler in contention. This year, she puts her best foot forward in terms of submission by going with a two parter, which was quite a controversial choice. The combo of Emergency Response and Ben and Leslie puts her in a lot of screentime advantage as these are two separate episodes. It also puts Leslie in a different light as she focuses another side of her with these episodes. However, her character is from a Greg Daniels show and the last time that the Emmys continually nominated one resulted to no wins (that’s Steve Carell in The Office).  part of me thinks that Poehler’s Leslie will follow the same fate, especially since she’s still unrewarded and she’s on the fifth season of the show already.

Speaking of hour long submissions, Amy’s gal pal and best friend Tina Fey also submitted a longer episode by going with the series finale. Submitting series finale has worked for the then still unrewarded Sarah Jessica Parker in 2004 but not for the then already rewarded Patricia Heaton in 2005 and Debra Messing in 2006. Given how stiff the competition this year, I think Tina will be joining the latter instead of the former. After all, she has another shot at Comedy Writing which I’m currently predicting for her to win.

Lastly, current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus attempts to be the first back to back winner in this category since Patricia Heaton’s feat in 200 and 2001 for Eeverybody Loves Raymond. Submitting Running is actually an inspired choice since it shows her physical comedy plus an emotional end of the episode. Her glass door scene is probably the most memorable scene of all nominees combined, and it might be enough to pull off the win.

After some thinking, I think that this race is closer among those who have better odds of winning. I don’t see Lena or Edie winning it this year. BFFs Tina and Amy have better odds with their hour long episodes, and I won’t be surprised if one of them wins. However, I’m hesitant with Amy especially if she can’t win with weaker competitions in the past when she’s a frontrunner. Like what I said, Tina can easily be the swansong win of the show, but her chances in Writing are far better, That leaves me with the two HBO girls battling it out. If voters are looking to spread the wealth, then I can see Laura Dern getting a farewell Emmy win for this. But as for my actual prediction, I’d say JLD goes for second time at the podium finally giving her a multiple win for a TV performance. Veep made a good showing at the nominations this year, and this is still the best place to reward it.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Runner-Up: Laura Dern, “Enlightened

Full Rankings:
1. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
2. Laura Dern, “Enlightened
3. Tina Fey, “30 Rock
4. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
5. Lena Dunham, “Girls
6. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl