After the reality and variety, plus TV movie and limited series, we continue our 2016 Emmy prediction series with the hilarious shows and performances from our comedy shows. Last year, Veep dominated winning Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Writing. Will they pull off the same feat again this year? Can Jim Parsons come back in the race? And will they finally give up on Modern Family?

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish, “Any Given Saturday” (Gail Mancuso)
• Master of None, “Parents” (Aziz Ansari)
• Silicon Valley, “Founder Friendly” (Mike Judge)
• Transparent, “Man on the Land” (Jill Solloway)
• Veep, “Kissing Your Sister” (David Mandel)
• Veep, “Mother” (Dale Stern)

Seventh nominee: Silicon Valley, “Daily Active Users” (Alec Berg)

Let’s begin by me saying that I think black-ish would have a huge Emmy breakout this season. I mean, sure maybe Anthony Anderson’s surprise nod last year was maybe due to a tie, but whatever. The improved quality of the second season had the critics pushing for it. It’s also somehow of a statement show, and it says a lot that Emmy winner Gail Mancuso decided to submit for this show instead of 4x winner Modern Family here. I’ll also probably predict a lot of Master of None here, and maybe Aziz Ansari follows Lena Dunham and Louis C.K. to pick up nods for their directing and writing efforts too. Silicon Valley, Transparent, and Veep are mainstays here and it’s just a matter of choosing which show will pick up multiple nominations. Thus, bet on current Emmy champ Veep to be it.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish, “Hope” (Kenya Barris)
• Lady Dynamite, “Pilot” (Pam Brady & Mitch Hurwitz)
• Master of None, “Parents” (Aziz Ansari & Alan Yang)
• Silicon Valley, “The Uptick” (Alec Berg)
• Transparent, “Man on the Land” (Ali Liebegott)
• Veep, “Mother” (Alex Gregory & Peter Huyck)

Seventh nominee: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, “Kimmy Finds Her Mom!” (Tina Fey & Sam Means)

It’s unfortunate that Lady Dynamite didn’t have an explosion in terms of reception, but it’s the writers we’re talking about here, and they’re more reactive to quality as compared to the other branches; thus, a pilot written by multiple Emmy winner Mitch Hurwitz does stand a chance to get nominated. After that, we have the same five shows I’m predicting for Directing, though if there’s a spoiler here, maybe Tina Fey gets back in the race, her first since 30 Rock.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Fred Armisen, “Saturday Night Live
• Larry David, “Saturday Night Live”
• Peter MacNicol, “Veep”
• Tracy Morgan, “Saturday Night Live”
• Martin Mull, “Veep”
• Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”

Three SNL men have competed here in the past, so it’s not as if it’s something new. After all, they’re working on three entirely different narratives. Fred Armisen is a past SNL member, and we all know how much they love to nominate those previous members even in the past years alone (there’s Tina and Amy and Jimmy (winning twice) and Kirsten and Maya and Bill)! Tracy Morgan has a comeback narrative. I mean have you seen the reception to him when he presented at the Emmys last year? They LOVE him! As for Larry David, this is his first bid at an acting Emmy and him playing Bernie Sanders will help him further. Last year’s winner Bradley Whitford is back at it again, so you can pencil a nomination for him again. Then for the last two spots, I went with two Veep men: Martin Mull who played Bob Bradley, and previous Emmy nominee Peter MacNicol who I’d say is the non-SNL actor frontrunner in here.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Christine Baranski, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Ellen Burstyn, “Mom”
• Claire Danes, ”Master of None”
• Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live”
• Anjelica Huston, “Transparent”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Lisa Kudrow, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”

I have mixed reactions with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler competing as one especially since this is likely Amy Poehler’s first actual legit bid at an Emmy. But hey, if that’s what it’ll take for her to finally win, then let’s go for it. Joining her is Melissa McCarthy who got nominated for all the times she hosted SNL too, Christine Baranski who’s also a multi-guest nominee for this role. Then there’s Ellen Burstyn who’ll Allison Janney her way to both Guest Comedy and Drama nominations. Oscar winner Anjelica Huston had a much-buzzed stint on Transparent, so I think she’ll be in. Last spot is up for grabs, we have lots of contenders from Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, that maybe we can get in a second Guest nod for a solo Tina Fey, or the much-buzzed Lisa Kudrow, but I’ll go on a limb and say that Claire Danes gets in for Master of None. It has that Louie guest stint vibes for me, though that show is infallible as well (Sarah fuckin Baker, everyone).

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
• Adam Driver, “Girls”
• Laurence Fishburne, “black-ish”
• Tony Hale, “Veep”
• Hugh Laurie, “Veep”

Seventh nominee: Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”

Tony Hale is a given at this point, especially after winning twice for that role already. Congratulations Ty Burrell, you’re the last man standing from Modern Family, and I think he’s here to stay for the next few years. It would be such an Emmy thing to do to finally stop nominating Adam Driver since he finally made it big as a movie star, but if he can survive last year’s almost Girls shut-out, then maybe he can still squeeze in a nod or two. Tituss Burgess also seems like a possible consecutive nod. His is a role that this category loves if we’re to base it on the history of this. Andre Braugher can easily score another nod, but I think voters are already over Brooklyn Nine Nine by now, and while it is Andre Braugher we’re talking about, there’s a lot of other veterans they can nominate here… which leads me to Laurence Fishburne in black-ish. It’s a tad surprising that even after so many years, Hale has been the only Veep supporting actor nominated but maybe winning Series last year can finally score them an additional acting nod. Since there’s no consensus on who the second actor might be (Tim Simons is probably what critics will push, but Gary Cole is the only other male nominated performance from this show), so go the easy route and predict the most prominent one in the group; thus it’s Hugh Laurie.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
• Gaby Hoffmann, “Transparent”
• Allison Janney, “Mom”
• Jane Krakowski, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Judith Light, “Transparent”
• Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”

It’s hilarious that all eight(!) women from last year are still eligible to be nominated again this year, but since I don’t think we’re going eight here again, I’d say Mayim Bialik and Niecy Nash are the first to go. Allison Janney is definitely back and in contention for a third straight win here, and so is Anna Chlumsky. Jane Krakowski is someone they love to nominate (however, winning is a different story), so I think she’ll be back as well. And it’s safe to say that they won’t be cutting Kate McKinnon in an election season of all years, so there’s four. The last two slots are between 2x previous Emmy champ Julie Bowen of Modern Family and the two Transparent ladies — last year’s nominee Gaby Hoffmann and Judith Light. All three make sense as nominees, but I feel Modern Family is going on a decline here, thus cutting Bowen off in the process.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”
• Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
• Gael Garcia Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle”
• Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”
• William H. Macy, “Shameless”
• Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”

Let’s begin with those that will surely be back. Of course, there’s no better way to start this than with Jeffrey Tambor who’ll even probably win this again (and deservedly so). After his surprise nod last year, I think Anthony Anderson will be back too, as well as perennial Emmy favorite William H. Macy. Will Forte scooped three major surprise nods last year, so I feel like in a relatively empty category like this one, he has the industry support and clout to pull off another one.Now this is where it gets tricky — sure Louis C.K. and Matt Leblanc aren’t eligible this time around so it’s opening up a free slot (since there are seven nominees last year). I’m currently predicting Aziz Anzari, as mentioned above already, to have his Louis C.K. (or Lena Dunham or Will Forte or whatever) moment, but I won’t be surprised if he gets Ellie Kemeper-ed in the end, meaning lead star of the nominated show snubbed. For now, I’d keep him in. As for that last slot, we can have a Jim Parsons come back again (yes as much as we’re sick of him and his show now) and Don Cheadle has been nominated all seasons his show was eligible (and this is the final season so there’s that), but I’mma go risky and put in Golden Globe winner Gael Garcia Bernal here only because I think Amazon’s really, really aggressive campaigning will at least bear one good result for them.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Lena Dunham, “Girls”
• Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
• Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”
• Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”
• Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”

Seventh nominee: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”

The question here basically is who are the five other women Julia Louis Dreyfus is beating for that fifth consecutive Emmy? As for starters, there’s Lily Tomlin who got in last year for Grace and Frankie without her partner Jane Fonda. Maybe both of them gets nominated this year, who knows? Then there’s Ellie Kemper who missed last year, but then again, last year is the most competitive category of the race since whenever so maybe it’s safe to say she’s in this year (or is she?) To continue my black-ish breakout year narrative, there’s also Tracee Ellis Ross who’ll be the first black woman to be nominated since Phylicia Rashad exactly 30 years ago (talk about narrative)! With a clear resurgence in quality, I think Lena Dunham will also be back after a year of absence. This can be a way to reward her and her season since Girls feels like an afterthought already. Now I’m definitely crazy for excluding Amy Schumer out. Sure, she doesn’t have a breakthrough big year like last year because not all years can be like that, but the lukewarm reception of this Inside Amy Schumer season feels like it’s ripe for a possible miss. Think of the other one time-nominated performances here (Teri Hatcher and Marcia Cross in Desperate Housewives, Zooey Deschanel in New Girl, Laura Linney in The Big C, Sarah Silverman in The Sarah Silverman Program, Lea Michele in Glee, Taylor Schilling in Orange is the New Black) — all those in really huge breakout seasons that they snubbed after. After all, I think she can get her due in the Variety Sketch category. Now this is where it gets crazier — I’m removing Amy Schumer for a CW actress. The Emmys are so allergic of CW they don’t even nominate their guest actresses (not even when they’re as legendary as Rita Moreno). But I think that sooner or later they’ll cave in. This year, they have two in contention: Globe winner this year Rachel Bloom for Crazy Ex-girlfriend and Globe winner last year Gina Rodriguez for Jane the Virgin. Now I don’t think both are getting in, and while Bloom is the more current one, I’d say the Emmys will be y’know.. like the Emmys and be a year late in acknowledging Gina Rodriguez just like when they nominated Tatiana Maslany when no one’s predicting her anymore.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish (ABC)
• Master of None (Netflix)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Silicon Valley (HBO)
• Transparent (Amazon)
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Eighth nominee: Mozart in the Jungle (Amazon)

As for the Series categories, we have two slots freed up this year because of Louie having no season this year and Parks and Recreation‘s departure. While people are toying around with the idea of Modern Family missing already, I’m not sure that will happen yet for this year, at least. They probably have one or two years in them before they get dropped off. Meanwhile all the other four nominees are guaranteed to be back as well – current winner Veep, Transparent, Silicon Valley, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Considering that Netflix is really great when it comes to campaigning their own shows, I’d say Master of None gets in in a category with seven spots. And lastly, I began my mention of it and end with it too –Black-ish seems like its poised for an Emmy breakout. Not only will it be the remaining network representative (especially since Modern Family is on its way out), but it’s about family too, so expect it to be there.

Tomorrow, to complete the list, the cream of the crop among the television dramas!

Talk to me about this one on Twitter: @nikowl

Drama Series: Game of Thrones (alternate: Mad Men)
Drama Lead Actor: Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” (alternate: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Drama Lead Actress: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder” (alternate: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”)
Drama Supporting Actor: Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul” (alternate: Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline)
Drama Supporting Actress: Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones” (alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black)
Drama Directing: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy” (alternate: Homeland, “From A to B and Back Again”)
Drama Writing: Mad Men, “Person to Person” (alternate: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy”)

Comedy Series: Veep (alternate: Modern Family)
Comedy Lead Actor: Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” (alternate: Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”)
Comedy Lead Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (alternate: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”)
Comedy Supporting Actor: Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (alternate: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”)
Comedy Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, “Mom” (alternate: Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”)
Comedy Directing: The Last Man on Earth, “Alive in Tucson” (alternate: Veep, “Testimony”)
Comedy Writing: Veep, “Election Night” (alternate: Transparent, “Pilot”)

Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actor: Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actress: Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge” (alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actor: Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (alternate: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Limited Series or Movie Directing: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Writing: Wolf Hall (alternate: Olive Kitteridge)

Reality/Competition Show: The Amazing Race (alternate: The Voice)
Variety Talk Show: The Colbert Report (alternate: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver)
Variety Sketch Show: Saturday Night Live (alternate: Inside Amy Schumer)
Variety Directing: Inside Amy Schumer, “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” (alternate: Late Show with David Letterman, “Episode Show 2414”)
Variety Writing: Inside Amy Schumer (alternate: The Colbert Report)

Let’s move on to the supporting ladies of comedy, which is also the biggest category of the night as we have eight nominations for this year. Mayim Bialik luckily sneaks in for another year despite The Big Bang Theory and Jim Parsons finally being dropped, so that doesn’t inspire much confidence with her chances. Kate McKinnon has opened her episode with a big Clinton skit, as well as her Jane Lynch (2010 winner in this category) impersonation, but we have yet to see a sketch show performer win in the supporting categories. Meanwhile, 2x winner Julie Bowen settled for another Valentine’s Day episode (like that of her first bid), and while her tape pales in comparison, she’s a pretty respected veteran who voters already showered with love here. Niecy Nash, the year’s surprise nominee, can win ala Merritt Wever in 2013. Not only are they playing similar roles in cable comedic series, but it’s the underrated nominee who can benefit in a large group nominations. Gaby Hoffmann gets to be high and has threeway in her Transparent episode, but if she can’t win Guest Actress for a far more in your face performance, odds are, her nominations are her reward this year. Current champ Allison Janney already knows the tricks of the trade when it comes to Emmy, proven by her 6 trophies at home, and a seventh one is indeed possible as her tape is full of physical hilarity, something this category loves. After a string of unsuccessful bids for Jane Krakowski in 30 Rock, she comes back to the race, this time for Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and while her submission was met with mixed reviews, her goodwill might be enough to trumple it. Closing the group is Anna Chlumsky on her third try and possibly her closest shot yet, as we see her give a breakdown speech to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ Selina Meyer.

This one feels like a battle between Allison Janney who has masterfully perfected the craft of Emmy process already vs. Anna Chlumsky who’s on a personal best episode in a Comedy Series frontrunner. Tony Hale managed to beat the Modern Family men in 2013, so maybe Chlumsky can too, but I’d say let’s be safe and think that Janney’s is the type of performance they reward multiple times.

Prediction: Allison Janney, “Mom”
Alternate: Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”

Full Rankings:
01. Allison Janney, “Mom”
02. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
03. Niecy Nash, “Going On”
04. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
05. Jane Krakowski, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
06. Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
07. Gaby Hoffmann, “Transparent”
08. Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Let’s complete the guest acting categories for this year by discussing the Guest Actor Comedy Series Emmy. All the six men nominated this year are no strangers to the Emmys considering they have collectively combined dozens and dozens of nominations under their belt. But with no clear frontrunner such as Bob Newhart or Jimmy Fallon this year, the race really seems up in the air.

Previously nominated thrice already in this category, still Emmyless actor Jon Hamm gets his first nod outside of his work in 30 Rock. However, it’s for another Tina Fey produced show — the Comedy Series nominee Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. In the season finale entitled “Kimmy Makes Waffles”, a tape was revealed where Reverand Richard Wayne Gary Wayne was seen doing some different activities disproving his earlier claims. This ends with a court room scene where he was pleaded as guilty. It’s a very competitive tape, though one can argue that his best scenes are in the beginning and his court scenes pale in comparison to that.

It’s one of those easier name checking instances, as veteran Mel Brooks gets in for the one-season canceled show The Comedians. In his episode “Celebrity Guest”. Billy Crystal attempts to invite Mel as a celebrity guest. It’s a pretty short appearance considering there were many storylines in that episode, and his wasn’t even the main one. I doubt he’ll be winning for this one, though one should never underestimate name checking.

Paul Giamatti targets Emmy win number 2, this time for his performance as Juror #10 in Inside Amy Schumer‘s “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” episode. Considered as one of the top comedic episodes of the past seasons, I can see a scenario where voters will go for it because of their love for the episode, regardless of Paul Giamatti’s performance in it. That said, his turn here is quite exquisite. Sure, John Hawkes upstaged him, but Giamatti stayed with his character that even in the most hilarious lines, you’d see him with a straight face. Hawkes’ snub clearly helps Paul though as now he’s the only chance to reward someone for this episode.

On the outside, physical transformation is what sets Bradley Whitford apart from his co-nominees for his turn as Marcy May in Transparent. Donning a blonde wig, the closet transvestite spends a day with confidante Maura in his submitted episode “Best New Girl.” It’s a pretty subtle performance, if ever there’s one in this lineup and can garner some votes in his way. However, it lacks the scenery chewing scene this category loves. Let’s see how it fares up with the rest of the pack, though he’s definitely in contention.

In four of the last six years, ever since Saturday Night Live hosts were submitted here, the guest actor category has been a place to reward the acting in the said sketch series. However, two of those are for Justin Timberlake hosted episodes while the other two are for Jimmy Fallon’s. This year, neither are nominated but we have two who have gained multiple nominations already. First up is Louis C.K. earning his third consecutive nomination as an SNL host. In the 40th season finale, his submitted episode, he kicked it off with a seven-minute monologue which is equally hilarious as it is controversial. That said, this is weaker than his previous stints, so if he can’t win during those times, maybe this one won’t be it as well.

Lastly, there’s SNL alum Bill Hader who was previously nominated in the Supporting Actor category. In his first bid as a guest host, Hader revisited all his prominent previous iconic SNL turns especially Stefon. While this is no slam dunk, this benefits him (as compared back in Supporting) because he appears in most of the sketches. He’s also helped by another Emmy favorite Kristen Wiig). Hader has since accumulated greater goodwill since the last time he was nominated appearing in critically lauded films such as The Skeleton Twins and in the great summer blockbuster Trainwreck. In a field as open as this one, a Hader victory situation isn’t far-fetched; thus I’m predicting him for the win.

Prediction: Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
Alternate: Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”

Full Rankings:
01. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
02. Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”
03. Paul Giamatti, “Inside Amy Schumer
04. Jon Hamm, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
05. Mel Brooks “The Comedians”
06. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”

You can check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

The Best Variety Sketch Series is a new category that only started this year to recognize the sketch comedy from the nightly talk shows considering that they’re underrepresented in the usual Variety Series one.

Let’s begin with perennial nominee Saturday Night Live. Given that it’s the show’s 40th anniversary, it’s weird to know that in its 40-year run, it has only won the Variety categories twice (first in 1976 and again in 1993). While they’re not allowed to submit their special three-hour episode (as it’s nominated in the Special Class Program), they went with one of their funniest episodes this season with the Dwayne Johnson episode. The sketches are strong in that episode and even the Weekend Update was great. it’s a wise submission.

Momentum, however, is with current it-girl Amy Schumer for Comedy Central’s Inside Amy Schumer. The submitted episode is the season opener “Last Fucakble Day” which includes a skit with Emmy winners Patricia Arquette, Tina Fey, and Julia Louis Dreyfus. That alone screams Emmy already. Then you also have the “Milk Lemonade” opening music video. It’s great that Inside went with this and not with the equally great 12 Angry Men parody since this episode features the more traditional variety sketch.

Drunk Ladies, on the other hand, went with its season finale “Drunk Ladies.” It also had featured a lot of guest actors (Courteney Cox, Alis Shawkat, Bobby Moynihan), The thing with Drunk Ladies episode is that it went with a special structured format of having one solid theme instead of their usual city-focused format. I wonder if it’ll affect that.

The season opener “Alien Imposters” was Key & Peele‘s submission for this year. The episode featured different skits starting from alien survivors to a Katy Perry themed final sketch which is creepy and hilarious at the same time.

Lastly, Portlandia went with a short film episodic type of submission by going with “The Story of Tom and Candace”, the 80s inspired drama about women power and rivalry over men with Fred Armisen in drag the whole episode. It’s actually a good submission if you don’t subscribe to any of these shows, as it gives a clearer feel of the series.

The race can be singled out between Saturday Night Live and Inside Amy Schumer. I’m a bit taken aback if they’ll easily go with momentum and reward Amy Schumer especially since she’s the hot in thing (plus an Emmy baity submission to boot). But then, I also can see them playing safe and rewarding SNL as it’s the variety institution show in this group and it benefits from name checking. Hmm I keep going back and forth with this one, but for now I think they’ll reward Amy Schumer elsewhere and SNL wins this inaugural Emmy.

PREDICTION: Saturday Night Live (NBC)
ALTERNATE: Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)

Full rankings:
01. “Saturday Night Live”
02. “Inside Amy Schumer”
03. “Portlandia”
04. “Key & Peele”
05. “Drunk History”

Click here to see the rest of my 2015 Emmy prediction analysis. You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Yesterday, the dramatic supporting actresses took the spotlight in our analysis. It’s now time for their comedic counterparts to shine as we tackle the Emmy for Comedy Supporting Actress. We’re bound to get a new winner this year since current champ Merritt Wever of Nurse Jackie was snubbed for a nomination (alongside Sofia Vergara of Modern Family).

Let’s begin with three time nominee Mayim Bialik. Solidifying her case as THE supporting actress from The Big Bang Theory, Bialik submits The Indecision Amalgamation in which her Amy plays total support to boyfriend Sheldon as he decides which gadget he’ll buy. As opposed to her previous submissions, Bialik doesn’t have a “scene” this year which is probably good for her chances as most pundits usually overrate those and her chances in general. In this episode though, she shares a dinner scene with Parsons where she plays over the top and that can probably get her some votes. She’s also coming fresh from a solo SAG nod and while that did not help Vanessa Williams or Sofia Vergara before, it indicates somewhat of a support for her.

The only previous winner in this category, 2x champ Julie Bowen firmly maintains her hold as one of the three remaining Modern Family cast to be nominated. This year, she has the opportunity to be the third person in history to have 3 Emmys in this category. Her submission, “The Feud“, is probably her weakest though. In it, she discovered that she got lice from her niece Lily, and she deals with its effect while closing a transaction with a developer. While it highlights Bowen’s strength in physical comedy, I don’t think it was able to maximize her acting skills at all. That said, far more surprising things have happened before, so I don’t think she’s necessarily out now.

Now on her second consecutive nomination, Veep‘s Anna Chlumsky submitted Detroit for this year. Opposite to her submissions last year where she plays in total control freak mode, Chlumsky is more subdued in this episode as she was relegated to the funny one liners. This ended with a confession from Selina to her character Amy and one that also touched her physical comedy with her massage scene at the end of the episode. Chlumsky’s weak spot is that Veep has perfected its use of its ensemble that a character like hers really find it hard to totally stand out. But at leas we see some range here and some “clip” material in her episode.

Gunning for a possible 2/2 this year, Allison Janney shows a different dynamic devoid of her subtle acting in Masters of Sex with her nomination for Mom. Playing the hip mother Bonnie, she submitted the episode Estrogen and a Heart Breakfast which dealt with her menopause. Ding ding ding! We have a winner. More often than not, this is an Emmy winning storyline that has given wins to many actresses before. In her episode, Janney was funny, riotous, dynamic, and just goes on a lot of range that is very different from her only Emmy winning role. It’s also a category that loves big flashy characters such as hers so it makes her case stronger. Her main con though is that Mom isn’t necessarily a well received show by the Emmys, and she’s competing with five other actresses who all belong to Series nominated shows.

Following the footsteps of Amy Poehler, Kristin Wiig, and Bill Hader, Kate McKinnon became the fourth cast member of Saturday Night Live to be nominated in the supporting category. While I didn’t think that Emmy would recognize her quickly, winning is an altogether different thing. In her episode hosted by Anna Kendrick, McKinnon actually appeared in a lot of sketches starting with the cold open and a slot with Colin Jost in the Weekend Update. In between, she also sang in the Dongs All Over the World, and this is a good submission per se. However, I’ll probably start to predict an SNL regular for a win once somebody starts to win. I still think they stick out like a sore thumb in the midst of all these other shows and that doesn’t work well in their favor.

And to complete it, we have veteran actress Kate Mulgrew receiving her first Emmy nod for Orange is the New Black. She submitted the episode Tit Punch in which the flashback focused on her character Red, and how she ended up in prison. While it mostly is dramatic, her range was undeniably present in this episode as we watch her character switch back and forth to flashback and present time. It’s also a complete arc for her character, and it doesn’t hurt that she’s in the most nominated comedy this year.

There’s a strong case to make for both Allison Janney and Kate Mulgrew here. It really depends on what the assigned panel will like since both make sense as the likely winner here. Mulgrew is the veteran who is in the more loved show and has the longest screentime among all nominees here. Janney, on the other hand, comes back with a bang and I’m really not buying the spread the wealth thing between her two nods since thoe are two separate panels voting in here and in Drama Guest Actress and the chance of a person voting into both is slim to none. After all, the last person who won two acting Emmys the same year is Janney’s West Wing co-star Stockard Channing a dozen years ago. In the end, I guess I’ll go with Janney here. At times, the writing is already on the wall and that Emmys will just go with it (think of Maggie Smith in 2012 as for starters). Mulgrew is a close second though. The other four are really interchangeable it doesn’t even matter anymore…unless we get a Merritt Wever win again.

Prediction: Allison Janney, “Mom“
Alternate: Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black“

Full Rankings:
01. Allison Janney, “Mom“
02. Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black“
03. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep“
04. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family“
05. Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory“
06. Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live“

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

You’re still reading Tit for Tat’s coverage of the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards, and to day we will be completing the quartet of the guest acting categories by tackling Guest Actor in a Comedy Series. This line up contains two past winners, two previous nominees, and two first time nominated performances. Let’s get the ball rollin!

Becoming the third actor from now president Selina Meyer’s entourage to get a nomination, Gary Cole nets himself a first career Emmy nod for his role as Kent Davison on this HBO comedy. In his episode submission Crate, he has the task of delivering the news to Selina that the president is stepping down and she’s taking her place. Cole wasn’t required anything much to do, but he fits well as a team player of this ensemble, and if goodwill is on this character actor’s side, he might have a shot at the trophy.

The first Saturday Night Live host in this category is Louis C.K. who nets his second nod for his second hosting in the show. While it is arguable which between his two hosting episodes is the stronger one, he appeared in many sketches for this one. In his opening wrap, he had this debate of women being better than men and his usual comedic schtick, then he was in the black Jeopardy act as well. and some throwing of the cake in the “wife meets the boss” one. What’s common about his sketches though are that he isn’t the lead in most of them and he’s usually the supporting reaction in most of them which I think hurts his case.

It’s a bit surprising that if you look at it up, Nathan Lane now has the same number of nominations for Modern Family as regulars Eric Stonestreet and Ed O’Neill. But yes, that’s true. For his third bid for the Emmy for this show, he still plays the over the top always in control Pepper Saltzman who’s in-charge of dealing the mishaps in Mitchell and Cam’s wedding. I’m surprised that Lane decided to submit only the part 2 of the season finale as he’s allowed to submit the first part as well. Sure it was Elizabeth Banks who was the scene stealer in that one, but it’s not as if they’re competing in the same category. I think it’s a loss on his part to do submit only the second part and diminishes his chances for the win.

Steve Buscemi‘s nomination here for Portlandia (and the one for Fred Armisen as well) is surprising considering that they usually resort to SNL hosts when recognizing “sketch shows” here. But upon watching his tape Celery, where Buscemi plays the desperate salesman who can’t keep up with his co-salesmen on making the celery a popular crop, I think he’s the dark horse in this category. We don’t know yet how the panel will respond to this tape and show in general, but I think there’s a possibility (albeit small) that he can Kathy Bates his way to a guest acting win too. I don’t think I’ll be predicting him, but I’m just throwing the possibility out there.

After his win in 2012, Jimmy Fallon is back to having another shot for a double win here as he hosts the Christmas episode of SNL. It is the same winning tape he had two years ago, and I think he is present in all skits here that I think he’s definitely the frontrunner (or co-frontrunner for that matter). Fallon showcased the same winning formula he had when he last hosted, and if anything, the only con he’ll have if we assess his tape is that not-submitted Justin Timberlake is in it as much as him, if not even more, since JT is the musical guest here. If that’s not  a problem to the panel, then I can see giving him another Emmy for such.

Or they might just give it to current champ Bob Newhart for his Big Bang Theory performance as Professor Proton. Sure Newhart doesn’t have the “overdue” narrative on his side after finally winning his first Emmy last year for the same performance, but who says Emmy doesn’t need to catch up on him? After all, in his tape The Proton Trasmogrification, Sheldon deals with the loss of Professor Proton so that’s points for empathy as well. And the thing is, it’s not even a dramatic performance at all since Newhart gets to play dress up playing the soul of Arthur while wearing a Star Wars costume, swords and all, in it. The reason why I refer to Fallon as a co-frontrunner because I think Newhart is in the race the same way he is which leads me to…

…predicting that it will be a battle of the repeat champs. 2012 winner Jimmy Fallon vs 2013 winner Bob Newhart. Fallon has the longer screentime on his side and the lots of sketches in it and you can add the fact that he’s one of TV’s it guys of the moment with his nightly show nominated as well (and likely to win that one as well). Then again you have Bob Newhart who is the last tape voters will see in this reel, playing a character who died in his tape and mixes comedy and drama effectively. And as if I have to bring it still (well I guess I do), but TV legend Bob Newhart who only has one Emmy under his name. If the reception to last year’s ceremony when he appeared is telling, then I’d give the tiny edge over to him. But really, both of them make sense.

Prediction: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory“
Alternate: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“

Full Rankings:
01. Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory“
02. Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“
03. Steve Buscemi, “Portlandia“
04. Nathan Lane, “Modern Family“
05. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live“
06. Gary Cole, “Veep“

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

That’s it! I will be pausing my Emmy analysis for a week to make way for my Cinemalaya coverage, so the next batch of predictions (supporting acting categories) will resume on August 11. 🙂

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Now that I’m done with the TV movie and miniseries categories, let’s now begin to dissect the guest acting categories of the drama and comedy series of the past television season. For today, we’ll be highlighting the Guest Actress in a Comedy Series nominees. While I personally am still opposed with combining variety performers into this, it seems like they’re here to stay, but I wish there was room for Sarah Baker in Louie, which will definitely make my personal ballot for this year. Now as for the actual nominees…

Proving that she really has a hold in the guest actress category may it be drama or comedy, Joan Cusack gets her fourth consecutive nomination as Sheila Jackson in Shameless. Not only is she still the most nominated actor from her show, but she still has a perfect track record when it comes to getting nods for all her seasons. The move to comedy is an advantageous move for this one SNL regular since her submission this year is indeed funny. In “Liver, I Hardly Know Her“, we see Sheila resort to an alternative cheaper plan in order to fix Frank’s liver problems only to see it go awry. This ended with a glorious moment for Sheila when she decided to marry Frank in the hospital.

Speaking of SNL ladies, we have Tina Fey getting her fourth nod as well in this category, once again, for hosting the season opener of SNL. At this stage, as much as I love Tina, this is just name checking on their part since she’s not even the focus of this episode, and even her cold opening has her giving the spotlight to the newbie cast members of the said show. Her only funny bit in this is the Girls parody and that happened in the first segment after the intro. The rest of the episode has her but on a limited use.

The other SNL host nominated this year is Melissa McCarthy who’s now enjoying her third bid in this category as a host for this variety program. While I’m still confused how she lost the first year (though in hindsight that was Kathy Bates playing Charlie Sheen, so I should have known better), her material keeps on getting weaker over the years. The same can be said about her hosting stint this year, though I must admit that of all six episodes here, she has the broadest (re: in your face) comedic style in her episode. She gets to be physically funny and does her usual “angry woman” shctick in it. On one hand, this might work to her advantage, but on the other, if she was passed up the last two years, I don’t see how it will all change up for this year then? I have to say though that between Fey and her, the latter’s submission is miles ahead better than the former.

And dominating this category is Orange is the New Black filling up half of the six slots in this lineup. Getting that surprise nod is Natasha Lyonne who plays Nicky Nichols on the show. Lyonne’s submitted episode “WAC Pack” fortunately is a flashback of her character so that works well on her side. But then again, she shares the flashback scenes with that of Laura Prepon’s character, and hers was the dramatic arc of the episode. It has her dealing with the drug addiction, and seeing a mother in Red, and I don’t know if that’s enough to stand out in this race.

Laverne Cox also gets a flashback of her own in the Directing nominee episode “Lesbian Request Denied” which was directed by Jodie Foster nonetheless. As Sophia, we have witnessed in this episode how she deal with her gender reassignment operation and unlike, Lyonne, she was the focus of this episode. It is an open secret though that it wasn’t Cox who played the male version of Sophia in the episode and it was her twin brother, so I don’t know if it will affect the voting pattern. Methinks that people won’t even realize that, and think that it is Cox doing double duties which can work well on her favor.

Lastly, submitting the same episode as co-star Cox is one of TV’s breakout stars Uzo Aduba. Sure it’s crazy (eyes! LOL) to think that she submitted the episode which has her co-nominee’s flashback, but when you watch it, Aduba’s moments were the comedic breathers of the said submissions. In this, she gets to be totally crazy with Piper’s character calling her “dandelion” and following her everywhere. The episode also ends with Suzanne doing a “revenge” to Piper after her continuous dismissal of her. It is a pure comedic performance as compared to the two other Orange ladies.

While I’m not sure if Orange is the New Black will be rewarded with acting wins for lead star Taylor Schilling or supporting actress veteran Kate Mulgrew, I think it will find its win over here. I see it as a two person race between Uzo Aduba and Laverne Cox. Aduba needs to overcome the great moments that Cox had in their submission, though the buzz for her is really growing. However, one factor that might be telling in figuring this out is that the guest tapes aren’t edited for the first time this year, so that puts her at some sort of a disadvantage. Add the fact that it will be a historical moment if the Emmy makes a statement of rewarding a transexual, and I predict Laverne Cox to win the Emmy here via a strong combo of submission and narrative. If they’re not in a giving mood for Orange here, then expect Melissa McCarthy to finally grab a win in this category then.

Prediction: Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black“
Alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black“

Full Rankings:
01. Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black”
02. Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
03. Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
04. Joan Cusack, “Shameless”
05. Natasha Lyonne, “Orange is the New Black”
06. Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live”

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

Hi guys! We’re now past halfway the Emmy week over at Tit for Tat, and after discussing the possible nominees and my predictions for Reality and Variety, and TV Movie and Miniseries, it’s time to continue the prognosticating before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the nominees on Thursday morning. For this part, our focus will be on the laughter source for the past TV season: COMEDY!

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Brooklyn Nine Nine, Pilot (Phil Lord, Chris Miller)
• Girls, Two Plane Rides (Lena Duham)
• Louie, Elevator Part 6 (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Las Vegas (Gail Mancuso)
• Orange is the New Black, Lesbian Request Denied (Jodie Foster)

Sixth nominee: Silicon Valley, Minimum Viable Product (Mike Judge)

Okay let’s begin with current champ Modern Family. This show has been dominating this category winning the past three years, and a fourpeat is indeed very possible. This Las Vegas episode is one of their more buzzed ones this season, and it’s a very obvious possibility to win as well. Then of course there’s Jodie Foster. Sure she’s no Fincher or Scorsese, but Lesbian Request Denied is a top episode for OITNB’s first season and with the deafening buzz it has, it’s likely she’ll get in here. I’m also predicting the pair of writer/creator/director Louis CK and Lena Dunham. Both have been nominated here for the past two seasons of their shows though I have to say Louis CK is probably the more assured contender here as compared to Dunham. But this semi-sort of creative resurgence for Girls can give her a nod here. As for the last spot, I’m giving it to the duo of Phil Lord and Chris Miller simply because they love pilots in here and it’s the most logical pilot in contention, and second, the duo comes from a hit summer film and a great 2014 year so far.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Episodes, Episode 305 (David Crane, Jeffrey Clark)
• Louie, Pamela Part 3 (Louis CK, Pamela Adlon)
• Louie, So Did the Fat Lady (Louis CK)
• Orange is the New Black, I Wasn’t Ready (Pilot) (Liz Friedman, Jenji Kohan)
• Veep, The Special Relationship (Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche)

Sixth nominee: Girls, Beach House (Lena Dunham, Jenni Korner, Judd Apatow)

As much as it does not make sense, Episodes is 2/2 so far when it comes to getting a nomination, so it’s really hard to bet against it. Thus, I guess I’m going with it for my first slot here. Then the writing/directing categories is a haven of some sort for pilot episodes, and I think that will put I Wasn’t Ready in a good position for a nomination as well. Louis CK has won in this category two years ago and has three nods under her belt, so a nod is assured. So Did the Fat Lady is his best contender this year, and I won’t be surprised if it goes on and win all the way. The risk I’m doing though is to predict two Louie nominations here, though I guess I’m putting a lot of faith with the writers and they have delivered before. As for Veep, they finally did the right thing of submitting only one episode for consideration, so it’s really easy to rally up at this point, though I won’t be surprised if it misses simply because it’s not even their best episode of the season (Debate anyone?) and that this sort of “submitting only one episode” has backfired in the past (last year’s Arrested Development as for starters).

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
• Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“
• James Earl Jones, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Nathan Lane, “Modern Family”
• Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Jeremy Renner, “Louie”

Seventh nominee: Andy Samberg, “Saturday Night Live”

Right now, two previous winners are in the running this year: Jimmy Fallon for SNL and current champ Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory, and I think it will be an easy repeat of nomination for the both of them. Then there’s Louis CK coming back for a consecutive nod for SNL as well. Louis CK is one the Emmys love to nominate and he has been beating his own record the past few years already, so another nod here isn’t surprising at all. I think James Earl Jones will get nommed as well since Big Bang managed to pull of a win for an overdue veteran last year, so they know how to headline their vets to get awards traction. As for Nathan Lane, it’s really hard to argue against him especially if he managed to get in for a cameo-like performance last year. And he even had meatier role this year. The last spot I reserve for that “dramatic” performance that usually gets in every year (Eli Wallach and Bobby Cannavale for Nurse Jackie, and Idris Elba for The Big C the past four years), and this year I think Louie is the show getting that slot, and my bet is on 2x Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner. His performance is very dramatic and no comedy element to it at all, but his sheer star power can and Oscar pedigree can give him an Emmy nod as well.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Sarah Baker, “Louie”
• Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black“
• Joan Cusack, “Shameless”
• Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
• June Squibb, “Girls”

Seventh nominee: Ellen Burstyn, “Louie”

Despite her SNL guesting going mediocre over the years, it’s hard to bet against Melissa McCarthy getting in once again so that’s one slot. The same can be said for Tina Fey who got in the last three years she was eligible here. In a fair world, none of them are getting nominated. And with Shameless shifting to the Comedy categories , it’s easier to get confident with Joan Cusack’s chances. If she can get in every single year in a more competitive Drama, this one is an easier path to a repeat nomination. And then we have Oscar nominee June Squibb. La Squibb is in contention for three different performances in this category: Girls, Glee, and Getting On. My bet is on Girls though since it’s her baitiest one (she’s on the brink of death, voters!!!). Then as for the last two spots, I have reserved one for an Orange is the New Black. My bet is on Laverne Cox since it’s more of a statement of some sort for someone like her to get awards recognition and her episode submission is basically where her character is the focus of it. But then again, I really wouldn’t be surprised if she missed instead for co-star Uzo Aduba. Aduba has been the viewer favorite character all along, and she’s been working the circuit the past few months. And then the last slot I’m giving to a Louie lady. I went with Sarah Baker with the same reasoning of why I went with Laverne Cox: her episode is the more buzzed Louie one. But then again, she’s up against Oscar winner and Emmy semi-fave Ellen Burstyn. Last year, the Emmy went with the popular Oscar winning actress (Melissa Leo) over the online favorite (Parker Posey), and I won’t be surprised if they follow the same format this year with Burstyn getting in over Baker.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
• Adam Driver, “Girls”
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
• Tony Hale, “Veep”
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”

Seventh nominee: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”

So will Modern Family get four actors again? I won’t be quick to say that again. Last year, Stonestreet missed a year after winning, so I won’t be too easy in thinking they’d get all of them in as well. Let’s get with the easy ones: Ty Burrell is making it in. I think he’s the last standing survivor when the Emmys start to drop it. And for some reason, they have a hard on for Jesse Tyler Ferguson. He’s the only other guy aside from Burrell to get in the past four seasons, so I think he has the other advantage as well. And then of course we have current champ Tony Hale from Veep who probably has a huge chance of repeating that win. I’m also predicting Andre Braugher. I mean if he can get two nods out of Men of a Certain Age, they won’t let the opportunity of nominating him for a comedic role pass by. And of course he’s good in it. I’m going back and forth with Girls’ Adam Driver since he seems like a one time thing, and I’m expecting a decline of nods for the show in general, but between his film projects and his recent Star Wars casting, he’s slowly building the clout to have a strong résumé. The last spot I’m reserving for the two Modern Family men. Ed O’Neill can easily go on for his fourth consecutive nod here, but my hunch is that like Jane Lynch’s comeback last year, Eric Stonestreet will have his this year especially since it’s a crucial season for his character.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
• Allison Janney, “Mom”
• Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black”
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”

Seventh nominee: Merrett Wever, “Nurse Jackie”

Unlike the men of Modern Family, the women have an easier time getting in annually just because there are only two of them in this category. Thus, it’s easy to say that both Julia Bowen and Sofia Vergara will be back as nominees again. And the same can be said for The Big Bang Theory star Mayim Bialik who even got an individual SAG mention earlier this year which pretty much indicates that there’s a level of support for her performance. If only for the reason that she’s in Veep, and I’m sensing an upward trajectory in terms of its overhaul nod, I’m predicting Anna Chlumsky this year too. She doesn’t have a winning season or a winning tape, but I don’t see her being a one time deal here (even if she makes sense as one). And since her last nomination eight years ago, it’s nice to finally see Allison Janney back in the race, even doing some sort of the record Edie Falco had (by winning a Lead Drama and Comedy Actress Emmy) only this time, she’ll do the Supporting one for her role in Mom. This has been some sort of a banner year for Janney in TV if her double wins at the Critics Choice Awards is too looked at. And lastly, we have current champ Merritt Wever versus Kate Mulgrew. It’s quite odd that Wever isn’t a shoo-in when she beat those four ladies I’m predicting as “sure bets” in this category, but it’s the Emmys we’re talking about here, and a surprise of some sort usually happens. The reason I predicted Kate Mulgrew over here there though is that because Mulgrew is a respected veteran who hasn’t been nominated for any Emmy yet, and she seems poised as the most logical supporting actress from Orange to make some sort of impact in this race.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: 

• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
• Louis C.K, “Louie”
• Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
• William H. Macy, “Shameless”
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Andy Samberg, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”

Seventh nominee: Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones”

TALK. ABOUT. BARREN. Oh god this category can’t even get any more lively after Alec Baldwin’s exit last year. Well let’s begin with Jim Parsons, as surely he’s one of the two I’m 100% confident in. The other is definitely Louis CK. While his is not the type of performance they usually reward here, a nomination is another thing. So whatever happens in this category (may it be a revamp or the same old line up), those two would manage to be in the final line up. We also have Golden Globe winner Andy Samberg who benefits from a  weak line up. If we still have the Carells and the Baldwins here, I’m sure he would be struggling to get a nomination to be honest. And that’s coming from someone who LOVE him in Brooklyn Nine Nine. Just like his show, Matt LeBlanc seems to have his fans in the voting Academy that I won’t be surprised if he gets in again. I mean I had him as an alternate last year and look at what happened. You also get to predict Don Cheadle at this point even if his show stopped making sense a long time ago simply because we have to fill in the six slots here. Oh my god that was very boring to type. And in a certain surprising turn of events, Shameless suddenly decided to shift genres this time, and if there’s one benefit I see happening from that, it’s that William H. Macy can take advantage of this line up to finally get himself a Lead Acting nom. I mean if not him, who else is there? Thomas Middleditch in a show no one cared about? Jonathan Groff in a show everyone cared about… to trash? Canceled sitcom stars Robin Williams and Michael J. Fox? This is so barren that Macy can consider himself lucky. Sadly the same can’t be said about his co-star Emmy Rossum.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Lena Dunham, “Girls”
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
• Anna Faris, “Mom”
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
• Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black”

Seventh nominee: Mindy Kaling, “The Mindy Project”

I mean at this point who even cares? Let’s just send the Emmy to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ home and we’ll be done with this. Or not. Maybe because she’ll give an extremely awesome speech the way she did the last two years. But yes, Julia’s winning this easily so let’s just see the five other clappers in this category. First we have Edie Falco. Nurse Jackie‘s sort of semi-comeback among awards show contenders means only two things: 1. the show is having some creative resurgence or 2. the field is so empty. I guess I’ll leave the answer to you then. Then we have Lena Dunham in possibly the best season she had as an actress of the show. I think that if the field continues to be this weak here, Dunham can manage to survive one to two more Best Actress nods under her belt regardless of the show’s reception. And then there’s forever the bridesmaid Amy Poehler. At this point, Poehler had done everything to win the Emmy, but voters aren’t really responding to these type of Michael Schur characters (I mean hello Steve fucking Carell). In the past, she already submitted a two parter, achieved a nod when her show is a Series nominee, got Writing and Acting nod the same year and yet none of those still worked. So I guess a nomination would suffice again this year. Then this year’s newbie is filled by Taylor Schilling as the core character from the huge ensemble of Orange is the New Black. That last spot I can see can go to Mindy Kaling (who’s a past nominee for Writing) and her announcing the Emmy nods might be an obvious indicator of that, but I guess I wouldn’t just underestimate Chuck Lorre at this point so I’m going with Mom‘s Anna Faris for the last slot.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:

• The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
• Brooklyn Nine Nine (NBC)
• Louie (FX)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Girls (HBO)

And we’re here at the final stretch. Okay let’s get the obvious ones out of the way. Modern Family is soooo getting in so there’s Slot 1. Veep is easily making it for Round 3 so there’s Slot 2. Orange is the new Black is too big to ignore that if there’s only one room for a newbie here, that would be it. So there goes Slot 3. Louie’s msot recent season has been more dramatic than comedic, but it has the critics rallying up behind it that it’s gonna be surprising if it suddenly missed after finally penetrating last year’s line up. And then there’s the fourth slot. The Big Bang Theory hasn’t achieved the same critical and commercial buzz it had last year (and yet it was used to no avail since they did not win Series), so even if their chances somehow weakened, a series nod is still manageable. Now there’s five slots already.  As for that sixth slot, it starts to get tricky. On one hand, there’s Brooklyn Nine Nine a.k.a Fox’s only contender in this category. On its side, it’s a freshman show who has some sort of buzz, it’s Fox’s #1 priority here, and it’s a traditional comedy from a broadcast network. However, it’s ratings aren’t something to write home about, it doesn’t have a Tina Fey or an Alec Baldwin in its side, and that Orange is the more buzzed freshman show. Then on the other, there’s Girls. On its hit stride, voters can easily just vote the recurring nominees from last year’s batch and it can easily make it, it’s still getting awards and mentions, and its third season has been some sort of a creative resurgence from critics and fans alike. But then again, it’s not HBO’s priority, and all its buzz has dwindled so fast it’s not even the watercooler show of the season nor of this line up. Of course with the new 2% rule, there’s a possibility that we might get seven nominees in the end, but let’s stick to the current six line up. Now who do I think gets in that coveted last slot. I guess I’m going with Brooklyn Nine Nine by a hair over Girls. I think there’s more buzz for the former and traditional comedy shows still has their hold in this category despite the slow HBO dominance the past few years. Plus, the shelf life for female-led/centric shows are just two seasons and they easily drop them off. Sure Sex and the City is an exception, but Ally McBeal and Glee were lucky enough to get two nods while the likes of Desperate Housewives and ugly Betty have to settle for their only pilot season series nods. So yeah, i’m going with Brooklyn in this one.

Now there you have it. Do you think Allison Janney is finally making that Emmy comeback? Will Shameless shamelessly moving to the comedy category finally catch another acting nod aside from Joan Cusack? And how many Modern Family actors can survive this season? Tomorrow, the last part as we tackle the drama categories! Thanks for reading!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Hi everyone! This week is a special week long Emmy coverage here at Tit for Tat! Before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official 66th Emmy nominees on Thursday, I’ll be doing a four-parter prediction post to cover who I think will be nominated in 30 different categories. And like in the past three years, we’ll begin with the Reality and Variety categories.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:

• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• Survivor (CBS)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

This category rarely does some major shake up if history is to be looked at. The Amazing Race has consistently been nominated since the inception of the award and has a perfect track record of 11 nominations by far. Project Runway meanwhile has been nominated 9 times, Dancing with the Stars got in eight times, while one time winner Top Chef  has stayed in this category for the past seven years. Thus, it’s easy to assume all will be getting in easily again. And then there’s current champion The Voice. With no other singing competition in the mix right now (Idol hew?), it’ll easily grab a spot as well and try to be the other multiple winning show here. Now as for the last spot, I’d say it’s between Fox’s So You Think You Can Dance and Survivor from CBS. SYTYCD has been nommed here for the last three years and it makes sense that we’ll have the same line up again considering how barren this category is, but Survivor has achieved a creative resurgence in terms of critical and commercial aspects that I think this once 4x nominee will make a comeback since it last got in back in 2006.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:

• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars”
• Anthony Bourdain, “The Taste”
• Carson Daly, “The Voice“
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance”
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway”
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night”

Seventh nominee: Phil Keoghan, “The Amazing Race”

Despite six slots in contention this year, this still feels like a very crowded race. Probably it’s because they combined reality show with reality competition hosts in here. Let’s start with the last two champs in this category: 2011 winner Tom Bergeron and last year’s pair of winners, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn. With both their shows still showing signs of strength in the Reality/Competition category, I think they are shoo-ins thus far. Cat Deeley seems like another good bet, though I won’t be surprised if both she and her show would miss this year. Then there’s also Anthony Bourdain from The Taste. After getting the surprise nod last year, I think he’ll be a consecutive nominee for it. And while it’s no sure thing, I’ve quite grown confidence with Carson Daly because one, he’s the host of the current Reality/Competition winner. Second, he will be doing the Emmy nomination announcement and more often than not, it bodes well to one of the two announcers. Lastly, I’m predicting Jane Lynch to cross over with a nod here. After her last year’s surprise comeback in Comedy Supporting Actress, it’s clear she has her fans within the voting bloc. I think that will translate to a support here just like how Betty White got in here after being shafted in the acting races.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

• The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
• The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
• Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Seventh nominee:  Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)

There’s a huge chance we’d be getting the same line up as from last year. The only possible factor I can see making waves is if David Letterman’s retirement. And that’s a real possibility. But for now, don’t fix if it ain’t broken – when predicting at least.

REALITY PROGRAM

• Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
• Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives (Food Network)
• Mythbusters (Discovery Channel)
• Shark Tank (ABC)
• Undercover Boss(CBS)
• Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)

This category is very much confusing in terms of possible nominees since some winners suddenly get left out the following year. That said, I’m sticking with the same line up form last year except for the ineligible Deadliest Catch. In its place, I’m going with the NBC celebrity story Who Do You Think You Are? which was nominated also back in 2012.

There you have it! 🙂 Tomorrow, I’ll be going on the eight categories in the longform section (TV Movie, Miniseries, four acting categories, Writing and Directing). Do not hesitate to write your predictions in the Comments section as well.

And by the way, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl