Now that the awards were given and the ceremony is over, let’s give a moment to those who dressed up with such class and panache that if we could have only given Emmys to showing up in top form, they’d definitely be the frontrunners.

As always, you can click the photos for them to be in their larger form. 🙂

All photos courtesy of: omg.yahoo.com

15. PADMA LAKSHMI in Kaufman Franco

Isn’t it amazing that a woman whose show requires her to eat a lot of food all season shows up this gorgeous at the red carpet? Loving this white Kaufman Franco look on Padma, as she puts the P in this perfect ensemble.

14. ANNA GUNN in Romona Keveza

When Anna Gunn showed up at the red carpet in this black and white Romona Keveza creation, I thought she’s missing an accessory. Glad to see her pick it up at the middle of the ceremony as she won Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series for Breaking Bad.

13. ALLISON WILLIAMS IN Ralph Lauren

Simplicity is the key to being sexy. That’s what Williams did when she showed up in this cerulean blue Ralph Laurend dress. It was a combination of simple yet stylish that made her look so effortlessly chic.

12. GIULIANA RANCIC in Mikael D

Who says you need to be an A lister to make a mark on the red carpet? E! correspondent Giuliana Rancic was top notch looking in this blue Mikael D gown she’s wearing. I’m a fan of the intricate details of the gown, and she’s rocking this short do that she’s currently sporting.

11. EDIE FALCO in Escada

Four time Emmy winner Edie Falco finally gets it right, as she looks so comfortable in this blue Escada ensemble. It does not say try hard nor is she wearing it like a hanger. The hair looks perfect as well.

10. JANE KRAKOWSKI in Zac Posen

Maybe I’m just a big fan of this color? But despite being empty handed for her performance in 30 Rock, one area where she certainly was a winner is in the red carpet with this Zac Posen creation. The hair is a bit Kate Walsh-ish though.

09. SOFIA VERGARA in Vera Wang

We’re used to Vergara bringing out all the guns with her red carpet appearances. It’s probably the reason why this red Vera Wang gown worked for her: it’s restrained and gives her some soft looks and doesn’t scream as loud as Gloria Delgado.

08. CARRIE PRESTON in Romona Keveza

She might have won her Emmy for Guest Actress in a Drama Series last week, but that did not stop Preston from going out in top form in this Romona Keveza creation. I understand if you think this is similar to Debra Messing’s 2007 Emmy dress, but I love what Mrs. Michael Emerson brought to the table.

07. KALEY CUOCO in Vera Wang

I don’t know what is it with Vera Wang this year, but she sure did know how to choose for her actresses. Like Vergara, Cuoco looks more softened and relaxed in this plum gown. For once, she doesn’t look a tacky or a try hard which is probably her dressing motto the past few years.

06. EMILIA CLARKE in Donna Karan Atelier

She might not have won the Emmy, but she sure made her presence felt. Daenerys was showstopping in this Donna Karan Atelier ensemble which will tame every dragon there is out there once they see this outfit.

05. ELISABETH MOSS in Andrew Gn

Going blonde has been one of the best fashion decisions Elisabeth Moss has successfully made. That, and wearing this black top on a white skirt Andrew Gn gown at last night’s ceremonies. Now if she can only win an Emmy, then it would have been better.

04. ROSE BYRNE in Calvin Klein

Emmy nominee Rose Byrne might not be nominated this year (she was there to support boyfriend Bobby Cannavale), but she was a delight to see in this pink Calvin Klein outfit which highlighted her statuesque body.

03. TINA FEY in Narciso Rodriguez

So yeah basically this is a big FUCK YOU to everyone who says Tina Fey knows no other color than black. This blue Narciso Rodriguez showed Tina has those dangerous sexy curves. And yes she won an Emmy! ❤

02. JULIA LOUIS DREYFUS in Monique Lhuillier

Seeing what Julia will wear is like one of my most anticipated Emmy moments every year. Girl just knows how to bring it every single year. And she did it again with this very natural look in a shimmering Monique Lhuillier look. Oh and another shiny Emmy.

01. MICHELLE DOCKERY in Prada

So yeah, this might not have been the most original look, but everything about this worked for me. The color combination? Check. The way the top part hugged her body? Check. Neat hair? Check. Michelle Dockery is a goddess, and this is another receipt to back that claim up.

So, who were your favorites last night? And what is your favorite fashion moment? You can pipe them in below!

Photo courtesy of ontheredcarpet.com

Now that everything has been said and done, it’s time to recap all the predictions for Sunday’s Primetime Emmy Awards. Here are my complete predictions (and alternates) in 28 categories:

Note: You can click the category and it will lead to my comprehensive analysis of it. 🙂

Drama Series: Homeland (Showtime)
Alternate: Breaking Bad (AMC)

Lead Actor, Drama Series: Damian Lewis, Homeland 
Alternate: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Lead Actress, Drama Series: Claire Danes, Homeland 
Alternate: Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel

Supporting Actor, Drama Series: Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Alternate: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Supporting Actress, Drama Series: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Alternate: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Guest Actor, Drama Series: Rupert Friend, Homeland
Alternate: Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal (ACTUAL WINNER)

Guest Actress, Drama Series: Jane Fonda, The Newsroom
Alternate: Carrie Preston, The Good Wife (ACTUAL WINNER)

Writing, Drama Series: Homeland, Q&A
Alternate: Game of Thrones, Rains of Castamere

Directing, Drama Series: House of Cards, Episode 1
Alternate: Breaking Bad, Gliding Over All

Comedy Series: Modern Family(ABC)
Alternate: 30 Rock (NBC)

Lead Actor, Comedy Series: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Alternate: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Lead Actress, Comedy Series: Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep
Alternate: Laura Dern, Enlightened

Supporting Actor, Comedy Series: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Alternate: Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

Supporting Actress, Comedy Series: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Alternate: Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

Guest Actor, Comedy Series: Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory (ACTUAL WINNER)
Alternate: Louis CK, Saturday Night Live

Guest Actress, Comedy Series: Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
Alternate: Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live

Writing, Comedy Series: 30 Rock Last Lunch
Alternate: Louie, Daddy’s Girlfriend

Directing, Comedy Series: Modern Family, Arrested
Alternate: Louie, New Year’s Eve

Movie/TV Minsieries: Behind the Candelabra(HBO)
Alternate: Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Lead Actor, Movie or Miniseries: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Alternate: Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra

Lead Actress, Movie or Miniseries: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Alternate: Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Supporting Actor, Movie or Miniseries: Scott Bakula, Behind the Candelabra
Alternate: Zachary Quinto, American Horror Story: Asylum

Supporting Actress, Movie or Miniseries: Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Asylum
Alternate: Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias

Writing, Movie or Miniseries: Top of the Lake
Alternate: Behind the Candelabra

Directing, Movie or Miniseries: Steven Soderbergh, Behind the Candelabra
Alternate: Jane Campion, Top of the Lake

Reality/Competition Series: The Amazing Race
Alternate: The Voice

Variety Series: Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Alternate: Jimmy Kimmel Live

There you have it! What are you predicting on Emmy night? Any shows you are rooting for? Have a happy Emmy ceremony everyone!

Also, I’ll be live tweeting the Emmys, so if you’d like to be updated, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: “Lost” [CORRECT]
2006: “Grey’s Anatomy” [WRONG] 
2007: “The Sopranos” [CORRECT]
2008: “Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2009: “Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2010: “Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2011: “Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2012: “Downton Abbey” [WRONG] 

And we’ve finally come to the end of this month long series of Emmy predictions. This is the last part of the 23+ categories that I’ve been writing for the past month or so. It is indeed wise to save the best for last with the top Emmy category for achievement in drama. There have been no serious major snub in this category this year, though HBO’s Boardwalk Empire finally bid out of this race and Netflix’s House of Cards took its place.

Last year, I predicted Downton Abbey for the win just because I thought it will be the gamechanger since it literally swept a lot of nominations. After all, it’s coming from a strong second season and was seen as the cool “it” show of last season. None of those factors work here anymore, so if they can’t win with a much buzzed season last year, I doubt it will pull off a late win for this one.

Mad Men has won four consecutive back to back series from 2008-2011 and it had its first major shutout last year. I think the trend will continue this year, though they’ll have the extra year to still pull off a fifth series win and a possible acting victory with the news of their last season being divided into two parts.

Netflix made history with its first series nod via House of Cards. However, unlike 2008 when cable (that is not named HBO) managed to win the top award, I don’t the situation is ripe yet for a Netflix victory. After all, in 2008, it wasn’t only Mad Men who benefits from a cable advantage. There were also Damages, Breaking Bad, and Dexter benefiting from the said narrative, so they are well represented. This year, its nomination is the reward for the huge gamble.

Game of Thrones just finished their best season yet in terms of critics and audience with the Red Wedding episode being the season’s highlight. It would have put them near the frontrunner status, but I don’t think it is enough to overcome the genre bias of the voters. As a consolation though, it is the closest they’ve ever been to in terms of chances in their three year stay in this category.

In the end, it’s still a battle between current champ Homeland defending its position, and current it show Breaking Bad with their second to the last season. On one hand, Homeland despite receiving mixed reception for their second season can still not be compared to the sophomore slump of other shows. Besides, the key here is submission, and they submitted really well. The show had an increase in nominations and the Emmys usually tend to stick longer to a show as compared to the critics who shift picks from season to season.

On the other, Breaking Bad benefits from the fact that the voting season happened during the release of their finale season. So odds are, the buzz is higher than ever. The nominations also increased this year with them finally conquering the writing categories (and with two nominations at that). It is clearly a show that is too big to ignore that it’s already a shoo-in for next year’s Drama Series award even if all the other contenders aren’t starting their seasons yet.

In the end, I think that will put Homeland at a slight advantage over Breaking Bad. Sure, the buzz right now is deafening, but I don’t think they’ll reward it for the first part of a divided season. Even The Sopranos waited for the last season when it got its second win. With the show ultimately being a lock for next year’s category, they’d more likely wait for it by then to reward it. In that manner, they can give another win to Homeland which is clearly another show that they love.

Prediction: “Homeland”
Runner-Up: “Breaking Bad”

Full Rankings:
1. “Homeland”
2. “Breaking Bad”
3. “Game of Thrones”
4. “Downton Abbey”
5. “Mad Men”
6. “House of Cards”

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development” [WRONG]
2006: Steve Carell, “The Office” WRONG]
2007: Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2008: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2010: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” [WRONG]
2011: Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2012: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” [WRONG]

Now it’s time to dissect the last acting category of the year, and at the forefront are the six funny men of comedy. This is a fairly weak category, though I love the inclusions of Jason Bateman who managed to get in despite the lacking presence of Arrested Development this season and Matt LeBlanc since I’m a big Friends fanboy, and I love seeing them rewarded for anything post-show. Sadly though, there’s not enough space left for New Girl‘s Jake Johnson who was lauded for his career best work last season. Anyway, ;et’s go to the nominees.

Alec Baldwin is in for the last time for his stint in 30 Rock. After winning in 2008 and 2009, he stopped submitting competitive episode (at times because he want co-nominees to win or maybe he stopped bothering at all). The same can be said for his submission this year A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World, where in he’s in the B storyline of the episode. With that said, Baldwin is still a force of a name in television and he’s the only person who won seven straight years at the SAGs. So that might account to something.

Oscar nominee Don Cheadle receives a second consecutive nod for House of Lies. Truth be told, I’m not the biggest fan of the show, as its humor simply doesn’t stick with me. However, I have to give him credit for coming up with a submission that at least made me chuckled. It’s a vast improvement from his submission last year. I’d still put him dead last though and stick by the idea that he just got in for his movie star status.

Surviving the Arrested Development snub is lead star Jason Bateman. Bateman benefits from the character-centric nature of the season, as he shines with the most screentime in this category. As for his submission Flight of the Phoenix, I think it did not do him any favors that his Michael is far from the typical Michael that we’ve seen from the past season. In this one, he’s clingy, desperate and unlikable which does not work well in his favor.

Aside from Alec Baldwin, Jim Parsons  is also gunning for his third Emmy win in this category. But unlike Jack Donaghy, Parsons clearly knows what to submit. He went for a throwback drunk episode which puts him the win n this category in 2010 for The Pants Alternative. By submitting The Habitation Configuration, that makes him an easy frontrunner in this category.

Matt LeBlanc is in a different situation altogether. Despite gaining no buzz for the show, they still manage to reap nods for writing and acting the same way they did two years ago. That says something with how popular the show is towards the people that matter (the nominating and voting people).  In his submission, he was in a conflicted situation as he force to give his agent a car, until the secret behind his act was revealed. LeBlanc played this role well, and I think it’s unwise to underestimate him.

And then there’s Louis CK. As each year passes, the love for his show Louie increases. Just for this year alone, he collected a total of nine nominations. With that said, I don’t know how big of a hard on the Emmys has on him since the nature of his show has a history of not winning for acting. If another Emmy favorite Larry David can’t snatch one for Curb Your Enthusiasm, then I’m adamant that they’ll lean to Louis CK’s performance. I really can’t think of a solid way to describe his chances.

I guess in the end it’s a battle of the first one to enter the three time category winners. On one hand, there’s Alec Baldwin who’s on his last shot to do so. I don’t think Baldwin can be stopped by a weak submission especially since this is their last shot to reward him. However, Jim Parsons is enjoying an all time high of critical and commercial love for the show. If anything, he can be the token recognition of Emmys acknowledging the show. But then again, I’m pretty sure 30 Rock is bound to win something, and since it did not happen with Stritch, and I’m thisclose to moving Louis CK as my winner in Writing, then this category makes sense. I go back and forth with the two, but I guess I’d go with Baldwin.

Prediction: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Runner-Up: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”

Full Rankings:
1. Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
2. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
3. Louis CK, “Louie”
4. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
5. Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development”
6. Don Cheadle, “Louie”

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Ian McShanw, “Deadwood” [WRONG]
2006: Kiefer Sutherland, “24” [CORRECT]
2007: James Gandolfini “The Sopranos” [WRONG]
2008: James Spader, “Boston Legal” [WRONG]
2009: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” [CORRECT]
2010: Hugh Laurie, “House” [WRONG]
2011: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men” [WRONG]
2012: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” [WRONG]

Now we’re off to one of the most highly contested categories at this year’s Emmy awards: Drama Actor in a Lead Series. Almost everyone here has a narrative going in for them, and this is already a busy category on its own despite Steve Buscemi missing for Boardwalk Empire and perennial nominee Michael C. Hall’s supposed sixth consecutive nod. Anyway, off to the nominees…

After picking up Globe and SAG nods earlier this year, Jeff Daniels received his first Emmy nomination for The Newsroom. And despite submitting the show’s pilot (which is probably his best shot, so kudos to him for doing so), it seemed that he’s one of those filler nods that deserves a nomination but you can rule out for the win. If anything, this is the best scenario that works for the concept of “the nomination is the reward.”

Surprisingly making it again for the second time, despite everyone (including yours truly) undermining his chances is Downton Abbey‘s Hugh Bonneville.  Bonneville went with Episode 5 of the show’s third seasons, which is a breath of fresh air from his co-stars who went with the season opener. But then again, he’s such a non-factor in this race that it won’t even matter.

Then  you have multiple nominee Jon Hamm. Despite multiple nods under his name, he still wasn’t able to snatch a golden Emmy of his own whether for his work here in Mad Men or his guesting stint on 30 Rock. For this year, he submitted the season ender In Care Of. Now with the announcement of Mad Men‘s final season being divided into two parts, this gives Hamm (and everyone else in the cast) two more shots to get nominated and give the show its first acting win. I just don’t see it happening this year.

Bryan Cranston aims to win his fourth Emmy for his role as Walter White for Breaking Bad. While it’s not wise to count him out of the conversation, winning the fourth Emmy is a harder feat than what it looks like. In this category’s history, only one performance managed to scoop up four Emmys for it. A lot of them came close such as James Gandolfini in The Sopranos, and James Spader in Boston Legal only to be defeated in their last time. Now I have no doubt that Bryan Cranston can easily tie it… but he’ll have to wait for next year I guess.

That leaves us with current winner Damian Lewis. His season might be uneven in general, but remember that when it comes to the Emmys, you only need one surefire episode to batch you that Emmy gold. And he clearly has one with Q&A.  This is a very competitive episode that is tailor made to win an Emmy. And I have no doubt that this will not be put into waste, as Lewis is one of the two frontrunners this season.

Lastly, there’s two time Oscar winner Kevin Spacey. His first foray into television series is put into good fruition, as he instantly gets nominated for an Emmy for it. Spacey is no stranger with the Emmys since he has been nominated for 2008’s TV movie Recount, but this is his first shot to end up with one. Emmy voters also tend to be starstrucked with movie stars and Oscar winners, so that works well in his advantage. For this year, his only semi downside is submitting Episode 1 instead of his baitier tapes into the season. As Julianna Margulies proved in 2010, buzz can only take you so far and a winning tape can beat you in an instant.

All in all, I see this as a three way race among Bryan Cranston, Damian Lewis, and Kevin Spacey. I’m more dismissive of Cranston’s chances since it is more fitting to see him win is record tying one on the last season of the show next eligibility year. That leaves me choosing between Oscar winner Spacey and current winner Damian Lewis. This is where Spacey is at a disadvantage, since his tape pales in comparison. With that said, I’m going with Damian Lewis for a consecutive win too.

Prediction: Damian Lewis, “Homeland”
Runner-Up: Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Full Rankings:
1. Damian Lewis, “Homeland”
2. Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”
3. Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
4. Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
5. Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
6. Hugh Bonneville, “Downton Abbey”

You can see my other Emmy predictions in other categories here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Glenn Close, “The Shield” [WRONG]
2006: Geena Davis, “Commander in Chief” [WRONG]
2007: Minnie Driver “The Riches” [WRONG]
2008: Glenn Close, “Damages” [CORRECT]
2009: Glenn Close, “Damages” [CORRECT]
2010: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” [WRONG]
2011: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” [CORRECT]
2012: Claire Danes, “Homeland” [CORRECT]

After the very funny ladies of comedy, we move on to the dramatic actresses of the past TV season. Aside from comedy supporting actress, this is the other category that has a tie in the final nominations resulting to seven nominated performances. Despite that, it is still shocking that supposed perennial nominee and 2011 winner Julianna Margulies missed for the Good Wife when she could have trumped three to four performances here. Oh well, off to the actual nominees.

This bunch of women can be divided into two parts: the supporting borderline competing in Lead women and the actual lead females of their respective shows. Let’s start with the former. After receiving her first nod last year, Michelle Dockery easily sneaks in a consecutive nod for the show. Truth be told, it’s one of the expected noms since she managed to get in at the Globes and SAG earlier this year as well.  For her submission, she went with the season opener (which co-stars Maggie Smith and Jim Carter also went with). I don’t think much of her chances since it’s an easy filler nod this year.

Two time nominee this year Elisabeth Moss receives her fifth consecutive nomination for the show. It is really interesting to note that for the past three years, both she and co-star Jon Hamm have been submitting the same episode for consideration. This year, they both opted for the season finale In Care Of. While this is an okay submission for her, Moss wasn’t given much to do this season that merits her possible Emmy. If anything, she better puts all her odds for Top of the Lake since she’s one of the frontrunners there.

We also have Robin Wright as one of the newbie nominees this year for her work in House of Cards.  I was always skeptical of Wright’s chances as a nominee, since it’s pretty clear that she has better chances if she competes in Supporting. But it seems as if this move worked for her better since she also got nominated here. She went with Episode 10 of the season which is one of her stronger episodes, but once again, I’ll be going back to the notion that this would have been a more competitive tape in supporting.

Now let’s go to the leads of their shows. Oscar nominee Vera Farmiga gives A&E a reward for a fruitful campaign as she gets in for Bates Motel. While this genre isn’t something that is usually noticed by the ATAS, I think the movie star pedigree of the actress paved the way for this nomination. I also like that she went with the pilot episode of the show because it’s the best way to introduce her character, and while others might turned off with what happens to her character in the middle of the episode, it shows Farmiga’s range in it.

Speaking of submitting the pilot, Connie Britton surprisingly receives her fourth nomination in a row for a record of three different shows. This time, her role as country diva Reina James in Nashville gives her the nomination. I’m really awed with how Britton managed to snatch this nod, but I’ve figured that she probably has been a semi-favorite now by ATAS in terms of getting nominations. Still, I think the soapy nature of her show will limit votes to come her way.

Lastly in this group, we have current TV it girl Kerry Washington for her fierce performance in ABC’s Scandal. Washington has always been one of my sure to predict nominees since it’s the first time in a long span of time that a black actress was nominated in this category. That narrative alone will apply for her already. That said, she wisely submitted their season’s most buzzed episode Happy Birthday Mr. President. Like Britton, I think the soapy nature of her show plus the fact that it’s really not a tour de force acting showcase will get her close to the prize but not ultimately going home with it.

And as for the single rose who carries her show but with a shared co-star, current title winner Claire Danes aims to be the next back to back winner here since Glenn Close in 2008 and 2009 for her layered role as Carrie Mathison in Homeland. There’s nothing much left to be said about Danes since this is probably the best role in television right now, and she has the receipts to back it up. This is also the type of role that gets multiple awards, and with her sweeps at televised awards since last year, it will be an easy feat for her. She submitted Q&A, which some might argue as more of Damian Lewis’ episode, but their tag team works best when they act against each other, and this set up benefits them greatly.

Now as for who’ll win, I’d say it’s an easy number two for Miss Danes. The Emmys won’t easily dispatch Homeland and in case they might give away some of their wins last year to other shows this year, this is probably their safest category. Coming off to a distant second is Vera Farmiga who I can see pulling off a Bryan Cranston type of win back in 2008: a small trial season show for a known veteran in a very baity role. But in the end, yes, it’s still Claire’s to lose.

Prediction: Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Runner-Up: Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel”

Full Rankings:
1. Claire Danes, “Homeland”
2. Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel”
3. Kerry Washington, “Scandal”
4. Connie Britton, “Nashville”
5. Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
6. Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
7. Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Marcia Cross, “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]
2006: Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” [WRONG]
2007: America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty” [CORRECT]
2008: Tina Fey, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009: Toni Collette, “United States of Tara” [CORRECT]
2010: Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” [CORRECT]
2011: Laura Linney, “The Big C” [WRONG]
2012: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep” [CORRECT]

Down to the last six categories for this year’s Emmys. Let’s go to the lead acting categories for this year’s Emmy awards. And we will begin with the funny ladies of comedy. For this year, shocking snubs went to 2011 winner Melissa McCarthy for her show Mike and Molly. Equally shocking snub goes to Zooey Deschanel of New Girl who was expected to reap up an easy follow up nom for the show’s second season. As for those who ended up with nomination, here are the six ladies in contention.

Since her win in 2010, Edie Falco has consistently received nominations throughout the four year eligibility of her show. However, with her intense competition this year, I don’t think submitting Luck of the Drawing will do her any favors. But then again, who cares? I think even she is not expecting an Emmy this year, though I’m fascinated that she still keeps getting nomination here and from the SAG Awards.

Despite the show’s cancellation, it’s really nice to see that Laura Dern managed to squeak in a nod for her work in Enlightened. Sadly for her, no one has won for a canceled season of any show in a long time in this category. That includes the one in 2006 where 4/5 of the shows won’t be coming back for the new TV season, the lone one whose show is still on won it in the end.  With that said, if you see the trends here, seven of the last eight winners won on their pilot seasons of their show. Dern is the only newbie here, so that might work. She submitted All I Ever Wanted which is an amazing tape on its own. But then again, it’s dramatic that it begs the question if they reward dramatic performances in comedy shows or comedic performances only?

For the second year, Lena Dunham picks herself an acting nomination for Girls. If last year, she submitted a lukewarm episode with the season finale, this year she did a good job of highlighting a good one by submitting Bad Friend where she got high with her close gay friend. This ended up with a confrontation with another friend and lots of cray cray stuff in between. With that said, I don’t think the nature of her character is one that you’d easily root for, and that’s one of the current trends we’ve seen in this category.  But still. I’d give her props for submitting her best acted episode.

Then you also have Amy Poehler in contention. This year, she puts her best foot forward in terms of submission by going with a two parter, which was quite a controversial choice. The combo of Emergency Response and Ben and Leslie puts her in a lot of screentime advantage as these are two separate episodes. It also puts Leslie in a different light as she focuses another side of her with these episodes. However, her character is from a Greg Daniels show and the last time that the Emmys continually nominated one resulted to no wins (that’s Steve Carell in The Office).  part of me thinks that Poehler’s Leslie will follow the same fate, especially since she’s still unrewarded and she’s on the fifth season of the show already.

Speaking of hour long submissions, Amy’s gal pal and best friend Tina Fey also submitted a longer episode by going with the series finale. Submitting series finale has worked for the then still unrewarded Sarah Jessica Parker in 2004 but not for the then already rewarded Patricia Heaton in 2005 and Debra Messing in 2006. Given how stiff the competition this year, I think Tina will be joining the latter instead of the former. After all, she has another shot at Comedy Writing which I’m currently predicting for her to win.

Lastly, current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus attempts to be the first back to back winner in this category since Patricia Heaton’s feat in 200 and 2001 for Eeverybody Loves Raymond. Submitting Running is actually an inspired choice since it shows her physical comedy plus an emotional end of the episode. Her glass door scene is probably the most memorable scene of all nominees combined, and it might be enough to pull off the win.

After some thinking, I think that this race is closer among those who have better odds of winning. I don’t see Lena or Edie winning it this year. BFFs Tina and Amy have better odds with their hour long episodes, and I won’t be surprised if one of them wins. However, I’m hesitant with Amy especially if she can’t win with weaker competitions in the past when she’s a frontrunner. Like what I said, Tina can easily be the swansong win of the show, but her chances in Writing are far better, That leaves me with the two HBO girls battling it out. If voters are looking to spread the wealth, then I can see Laura Dern getting a farewell Emmy win for this. But as for my actual prediction, I’d say JLD goes for second time at the podium finally giving her a multiple win for a TV performance. Veep made a good showing at the nominations this year, and this is still the best place to reward it.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Runner-Up: Laura Dern, “Enlightened”

Full Rankings:
1. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
2. Laura Dern, “Enlightened”
3. Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
4. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
5. Lena Dunham, “Girls”
6. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Terry O’Quinn, “Lost” [WRONG]
2006: Alan Alda, “The West Wing” [CORRECT]
2007: Michael Imperioli, “The Sopranos” [WRONG]
2008: Zeljko Ivanek, “Damages” [CORRECT]
2009: Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal” [WRONG]
2010: Andre Braugher, “Men of a Certain Age” [WRONG]
2011: Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones” [CORRECT]
2012: Jared Harris, “Mad Men” [WRONG]

Now off to the supporting female counterparts, let’s shift the moment on to the men’s side. Last year, Aaron Paul made history by being the first supporting actor who won a second Emmy in this category in fourteen years. This year, he can continue to beat his own record by winning a third one. Let’s see his possible competition.

Jim Carter surprisingly received another nomination for his work in Downton Abbey. Though the love for his show has somewhat cooled down, it still has fire enough in it to pull off some major wins. With that said, it is good on his part to submit he first episode of the third season which runs for almost two episodes already. But with that said, I guess the best part of his nomination this year is that he and his wife Imelda Staunton (nominated for Supporting Actress in a Movie or Miniseries) are both nominated.

2011 winner in this category Peter Dinklage received his third straight nomination for Game of Thrones. It is luck for his part that he won on the season with no Breaking Bad, as he competed in a weaker competition that year. Otherwise, I think he might have joined the ranks of other consistent but no Emmy win nominated guys such as Mad Men’s John Slattery. While he submitted Second Sons as his episode submission, I think there are far and away more frontrunners for him to scoop a second Emmy win.

Last year, Claire Danes invented a funny catchphrase when she mentioned in her speech “MANDY.PATINKIN. Holllaaa!” The same can be said now in this category, as Mandy Patinkin finally gets an overdue nomination for Homeland. This year, he made a terrific submission by going with The Choice, which is the show’s season finale. Add the fact that he is an Emmy veteran with previous wins and is nominated for what is Emmy’s most recent drama champ, and then it’s safe to say he’s in contention this year.

Two time nominee this year is Bobby Cannvale for his work in Nurse Jackie and Boardwalk Empire. Cannavale is one of those subtle favorites of the Emmys. He won one before for his Will & Grace stint, and he continues to rake in nods years after. It is surprising to note that he is the first Boardwalk actor to get nominated in this category, so that might factor in. He only has almost ten minutes of screentime in his submission Sunday Best, but each of his scenes leaves enough impact. His is the tape that does not need enough screentime, as he owns it every time he appears. Sadly though, the Academy has quite moved on from the show, so that can affect his chances.

Lastly, we’re off to two Breaking Bad guys again. Jonathan Banks is a first time nominee here, and it is very great of him to submit Say My Name. it is his best episode of the scene, and the show is a hoot among Emmy voters this year. In fact, it makes him very competitive for the win especially if they want to spread the wealth since co-star Aaron Paul has two Emmys already but…

… it’s Aaron Paul he’s contending with. The same narrative could have propelled Giancarlo Esposito for the win last year, but they decided to give Paul a second win instead. Not that he deserves it since he has a winning tape last year, but the past season of Breaking Bad is definitely one (if not THE) weakest season of Paul in the show. It also didn’t help Banks that Paul submitted Buyout instead. Let’s see if Paul wins a third one or they reserve it for next year.

In my opinion, the consensus in this race is now between Mandy Patinkin who s a respected veteran in a competitive role vs. Aaron Paul who, as proven last year, is loved by the Emmys in his own way. Between the two, I’d give the advantage over at Patinkin. With that said, I think I’m quite going crazy but I guess I have to go with Bobby Cannavale for a surprise win. I really can’t put a solid argument why (that’s why maybe he’ll lose), but I can sense his tape will lead some votes on his way.

Prediction: Bobby Cannavale, “Boardwalk Empire”
Runner-Up: Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”

Full Rankings:
1. Bobby Cannavale, “Boardwalk Empire”
2. Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”
3. Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”
4.Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad”
5. Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
6. Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey”

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Doris Roberts, “Everybody Loves Raymond” [CORRECT]
2006: Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl” [WRONG]
2007: Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl” [CORRECT]
2008: Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty” [WRONG]
2009: Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies” [CORRECT]
2010: Jane Lynch, “Glee” [CORRECT]
2011: Jane Lynch, “Glee” [WRONG]
2012: Kathryn Joosten “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]

After supporting actor in a comedy series, let’s give the moment to the ladies now by tackling their counterparts: comedy’s supporting actresses. This year, we have a boatload of nominees here, as this category expanded to seven. And despite that, Arrested Development’s Jessica Walter still find herself with no nomination for the show’s fourth season. Poor Lucille.

Anyway, let’s begin with the cable ladies. Merritt Wever picked up a consecutive nod for her performance in Nurse Jackie. Truth be told, this late surge of love for her is something that I did not see coming at all. If anything, this would have made more sense during the show’s first season when the show was nominated for the top award. In her episode Teachable Moments, she wasn’t given much to do, and while she has the occasional snarks here and there, she’s relegated to a weak and unmemorable storyline.

Over at HBO, Anna Chlumsky is another of those who received a surprising nod. With the entire false buzz regarding her back and forth change of submission, it’s nice to see her stick with First Response. In this episode, she gets crazier than usual, as she refuses to let loose when Veep Meyer was in for an interview by Alison Janney’s character. However, this episode appeals more to those actual fans of the show.

Then we have a series of returning kids. Not only that, but they share the same first name as well. First, you have Jane Krakowski who submitted the hour long submission. While this gave her double screentime, it doesn’t put her to much advantage as compared to the Modern Family women who have, unintentionally, two submissions each. To be fair though, her song at the end of her long episode is one that will certainly bring votes her way.

After a year of snub, 2010 winner Jane Lynch is also back in contention. Sadly for her, she has been relegated to near guest-star status in terms of exposure in the show this season. In her episode Feuds though, we get to see her channel her inner Nicki Minaj with her Starship numbers with complete costume, wigs, and shiny lights to boot. Aside from that though, there’s nothing left for her submission to think that it runs for 42 minutes. Not her fault though.

Sofia Vergara has a reputation of a bad Emmy submitter. It all started when she submitted Not In My House in 2010, and it even solidified when she followed it with Slow Down Your Neighbors the following year. To her credit though, she made stronger choices since then such as her Tableau Vivant last year, and this year’s Yard Sale. In this episode, she gets to show some flashback about her beauty pageant years and perform puppetry at the end of her episode. Her only battle though is that the Emmys love her co-star better, so she can play second fiddle to her again.

Speaking of co-star, Julie Bowen is aiming for a three-peat this year. After submitting My Hero, it’s pretty clear that her team already mastered the art of finding what Emmy voters find in her character. In this episode, she has the heart and the laughs. And she is (unintentionally) helped once again by co-star Vergara’s tape. While I wouldn’t hate Julie Bowen just because she’s the one who keeps on winning here, she can be the Brad Garrett to Sofia Vergara’s Peter Boyle.

Lastly, there’s The Big Bang Theory’s Mayim Bialik. After being open last year that it was not her choice for a submission and that the networks opted for her, it seemed more in-synch with her this year, as she gets to pretend that she’s sick in her submission The Fish Guts Displacement. This episode is a showcase for her, though I don’t think it’s as strong as it perceived to be. She might benefit from having majority of her scenes interacting with Jim Parsons though, and she does a lot of physical comedy here.

As for who’s gonna win here, while I don’t think it’s out of the realm to see Sofia Vergara or Mayim Bialik pull a win here, it ultimately boils down to Julie Bowen for a three-peat or Jane Krakowski as the show’s farewell acting win ala Megan Mullally in 2006. For the meantime, I don’t see a slowdown of MF domination in the supporting categories, so I’ll be predicting Julie Bowen instead.

Prediction: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
Runner-Up: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock”

Full Rankings:
1. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
2. Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock”
3. Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
4.Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
5. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
6. Merritt Wever, “Nurse Jackie”
7. Jane Lynch, “Glee”

To see other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Peter Boyle, “Everybody Loves Raymond” [WRONG]
2006: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” [CORRECT]
2007: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” [CORRECT]
2008: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” [CORRECT]
2009: Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother” [WRONG]
2010: Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
2011: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
2012: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” [WRONG]

After discussing the directing and writing categories, let’s go back to the acting ones. For now, we’ll be discussing the supporting categories in a comedy series. As for the actors, the final list of nominees ended up shocking the prognosticating world, as it gives the most extreme inclusions and exclusions. Some of the snubbed were current titleholder Eric Stonestreet for Modern Family, Max Greenfield for New Girl, and Will Arnett for Arrested Development. All three were predicted to be sure locks to receive nominations here, but it obviously did not materialize. As for those who were actually nominated…

While not all four Modern Family guys received nominations this year, three of them still managed to do so. 2011 winner Ty Burrell is back for another nod, and this year, he submitted Mistery Date which was the episode that involved a gay Matthew Broderick confusing a date with Burrell’s character. Burrell is one of the few MF stars who have multiple episodes to choose from, so this episode is a hit or miss for others. On one hand, this has the typical Phil funny stuff, but on the other, Broderick’s snub here might be telling of the Academy’s perception of the said episode.

Then we have Jesse Tyler Ferguson. Despite having no wins yet, it is actually surprising that Jesse Tyler Ferguson is one of the four actors from the cast (and the only one aside from Ty Burrell among males) that managed to receive nominations for all four previous seasons of the show. I think this indicates some passion on his character. While his episode The Wow Factor shows a competitive Mitchell; his attempts to beat young kids might not be as comedic as one would assume.

Ed O’Neill’s best tape was two years ago for the episode The Kiss during the show’ sophomore season. However, this year, he’s probably one who can benefit from the “multiple tape format” among co-stars. His original planned tape “The Wow Factor” was changed because it was co-star Ferguson’s submission already. This gives him an advantage to submit another tape of his liking which was the season opener Bringing Up Baby. The common factor among his chosen tapes was that they were all heart-tugging and it might work well for him in the end.

For his final season in SNL, Bill Hader receives a farewell nod from the Academy. This year, he submits the first episode with Seth MacFarlane. I personally think that this is a solid submission with his Clint Eastwood bit as arguably the most memorable among all the episodes in this category. As Kristen Wiig proved last year (and Steve Carell the year before), they mostly don’t care if you are leaving the show already and that they aren’t as sentimental as expected. The only downside of his submission is that there’s no sight of Stefon.

As per the Emmy rulebook, a person who has two continuing roles in a series can’t be campaigned for both, so they must choose one that will be for consideration. That’s the risk that paid off for Tony Hale this year by going with his current show Veep rather than sticking for Arrested Development.  Obviously, it’s a good call knowing that AD very much underperformed while Veep overperformed. As for his submission Running, I think it gives him a lot do in terms of showcasing his comedic skills and is the perfect submission for him. In fact, I’d rank him as the contender with the best possibility to overcome the Modern Family guys.

Lastly, there’s Adam Driver. It’s one of the nominations I root for but certainly did not expect to happen. This is really a surprise because all the talks prior to the nominations have been for the supporting actresses, so Adam Driver being the first one outside of Lena Dunham to get an acting nod means something. In his tape It’s Back, he stands out because of the show’s tone among the other programs in this category. With that said, it can go back and forth with him, though I don’t see him winning this year.

With no Eric Stonestreet this year, this category is very up in the air. However, for the past ten years, series shows with three or more acting nominations has better odds of winning because it gives their actors more tapes and episodes as submissions. This has happened to The West Wing in 2002, Sex and the City in 2004, Desperate Housewives in 2005, Grey’s Anatomy in 2007, and Modern Family here for the past three years. I think the same will still happen this year, and the combo of their three submissions puts Ty Burrell in an advantage over his two co-stars. The only scenario I see where in someone NOT from Modern Family winning is if there is a fatigue on the show already. In that case, Tony Hale wins from a bunch of Veep and Arrested Development supporters.

Prediction: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Runner-Up: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”

Full Rankings:
1. Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
2. Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
4. Tony Hale, “Arrested Development!”
5. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
6. Adam Driver, “Girls” 

To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

And, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl