69th Cannes Film Festival Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

2016 Jury

Another year has gone by, as the world’s most prestigious festival comes to a close. The 69th Cannes Film Festival has been a whirlwind of some sort. This year featured a bad Woody Allen joke during the opening ceremony, a barefoot Julia Roberts in the red carpet, and probably the most low-key Un Certain Regard competition in a long time.

As for the Main Competition, the consensus is that it’s a bit frontloaded with the latter half of the festival ranging from underwhelming (Dardennes), to bad (Dolan), to really bad (Penn), and sadly, to the no1curr (Mendoza). That said, this is one of the hardest to predict since there isn’t any specific basis as to what the jury will go for (and the jury changes every year!), but here’s a stab at possible winner predictions.

Screenplay

PRIX DU SCÉNARIO

PREDICTION: Cristian Mungiu, “Bacalaureat (Graduation)
Mungiu has already won this award four years ago with Beyond the Hills, but I can see him being the first person to win this twice. A previous Palme d’Or winner for 4 Months, 3  Weeks, 2 Days, this slow burner story about a father and his daughter is the type of thought provoking film that usually wins this category. He can find himself against the other Romanian, Cristi Piui, for equally talky film Sieranevada

ALTERNATE: Asghar Farhadi, “Forushande (The Salesman)”
Prior to the beginning of the festival, this one is touted as one of the major frontrunners especially since it was a late minute addition. While it can still happen in this jury, the relatively silent reactions around it makes me think that it can settle for a Screenplay award instead.

Actor

PRIX D’INTERPRÉTATION MASCULINE

PREDICTION: Dave Johns, “I, Daniel Blake
Mostly known as an English stand up comic, “I Daniel Blake” is Dave Johns’ first foray into movie acting. And if it’s any indication, he should be doing more of it. His commanding turn as the title role in Ken Loach’ entry this year reportedly broke a lot of hearts and had everyone praising him. Seems fitting in this category.

ALTERNATE: Adam Driver, “Paterson
The Jim Jarmusch film in competition this year is said to be in his upper tier of works, and if the Jury loves it so much, an award to its lead actor can be one way of rewarding it. In the event it happens, it’s quite delicious since Driver has just won the Volpi Cup two years ago for Hungry Hearts, and for him to have 2/3 of the major trifecta for a relatively short career yet is astounding, to say the least.

Actress

PRIX D’INTERPRÉTATION FÉMININE

PREDICTION: Sonia Braga, “Aquarius
Locks rarely do happen at Cannes of all people (heck even unanimously raved Blue is the Warmest Color in 2013 wasn’t a sure thing as we entered the awarding ceremony), but if there’s one performance that was continuously raved from its premiere up to now was that of Sonia Braga’s in Aquarius. It also helps that the film has received great word too, so it can be hitting two birds with one stone in this one.

ALTERNATE: Kristen Stewart, “Personal Shopper
To be frank, this is probably the most competitive lead actress year in Cannes for quite some time. There’s Isabelle Huppert gunning a third win for “Elle” and Sandra Huller for “Toni Erdmann” but I think both are also gunning for higher prizes. There’s also Ruth Negga who was consistently praised for “Loving“, the two women who played the title roles of”Julieta” — Emma Suarez and Adriana Ugarte, Adèle Haenel of “The Unknown Girl“, Sasha Lane of “American Honey“, Juliette Binoche of “Ma Loute“, Jaclyn Jose of “Ma’Rosa“, Elle Fanning of “The Neon Demon“, but maybe Kristen Stewart’s lead role in Oliver Assayas’ “Personal Shopper” is one that can appeal to this particular jury.

Directing

PRIX DE LA MISE EN SCÉNE

PREDICTION: Andrea Arnold, “American Honey
I’m sure politics isn’t the be all-end all of everything, but in the history of Cannes, only one woman has won the Best Director trophy (that would be Soviet director Yuliya Solntseva 55 years ago way back in 1961). The buzz for American Honey has managed to stay throughout the rest of the competition, and while I don’t think it was unanimously raved, this type of divisive response is perfect for a Best Director trophy.

ALTERNATE: Paul Verhoeven, “Elle
Sure he is no highly heralded auteur, but Paul Verhoeven’s comeback is enough narrative for him to win this. This is the man who gave us Starship Troopers and Basic Instinct, so winning a Cannes Best Director for his first film in ten years is something I can see the jury acknowledging.

Jury Prize

PRIX DU JURY

PREDICTION: Park Chan-Wook, “Agassi (The Handmaiden)”
Winner of the same award back in 2009 for “Thirst“, Park Chan-Wook’s comeback film in competition can also be his third-award winning one following 2004 Grand Prix winner “Oldboy” and the aforementioned Thirst.Agassi” surely isn’t the unanimous raved entry for this year, but between its feminist tones and deliciously looking visuals, this can be enough of a formula to win a Jury Prize.

ALTERNATE: Bruno Dumont “Ma Loute (Slack Bay)”
It’s a bit weird to see no French entry be rewarded with a win especially since this is the Cannes after all, but if there’s one, this Bruno Dumont comedy is my best guess to have a chance.

Grand Prix

GRAND PRIX

PREDICTION: Paul Verhoeven, “Elle
Saving the latter half of the competition, Verhoeven’s comeback vehicle “Elle” was met with raves from critics and was considered as the perfect closer to the festival. Its humorous and atypical take on a serious subject matter, as well as the combination of star power and potential wide appeal is definitely right up Miller’s alley. One reason why I’m not predicting it  for the Palme d’Or though is that I think it’s a tad controversial and boundary pushing for the top prize.

ALTERNATE: Andrea Arnold, “American Honey
American press kept on harping that this is the next Palme d’Or, but I have my reservations with that. I think it’s too divisive and not even the type of divisive that will have enough champions in the group. It’s more fitting for a Jury Prize or a Directorial one for Andrea Arnold. But who knows? Maybe they know something I don’t.

Palme d'Or

PALME D’OR

PREDICTION: Maren Ade, “Toni Erdmann
It’s really the breakout of this festival. This strange comedy from female filmmaker Maren Ade really had all the critics raving about it. As for starters, it’s one of the consistent performer across all different critics poll series. Then, George Miller hinted about wanting to reward/prefer a comedy. Add the narrative of only one female director winning the Palme d’Or (that would be Jane Campion’s “The Piano” back in 1993 but it won in a tie). Unless the jury really wants to go on a different direction, I think we’re looking at our Palme winner already.

ALTERNATE: Ken Loach, “I, Daniel Blake
Well this is the other direction I’m referring to. If they’re not in the mood for some comedy, then this heartwarming drama which was reported as having the jury really ecstatic about it can be our Palme winner. Ken Loach won this exactly a decade ago unanimously with “The Wind That Shakes the Barley” (in a competition that included Bruno Dumont, Nicole Garcia, Andrea Arnold, and Pedro Almodovar too) so maybe history’s for rewriting this one.

As for that highly regarded film that ended up with no win, I’m leaning towards Jim Jarmusch’s “Paterson” and Cristi Piui’s “Sieranevada” as the likely victims for this year. I’m excited to see the Maren Ade, the Jim Jarmusch, the Paul Verhoeven, Asghar Farhadi, and I guess the Brillante Mendoza among the competition, but titles in other sidebars such as Pablo Larrain’s “Neruda” and “The Red Turtle.” Oh and for the sheer lulz of it, I hope we get to see Sean Penn’s “The Last Face” too!

Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

89th Oscars Predictions: May Edition   Leave a comment

It’s that time of the year! As Cannes is currently going, here’s my first stab at predictions for the 89th Academy Awards. Ten years ago, The Departed won in the tightest Best Picture race (prior to the one early this year), Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren steamrolled through critics and televised awards, an Idol reject named Jennifer Hudson took Oscar glory, and an overdue Martin Scorsese finally can call himself an Oscar winner.

This year, we might have Marty coming back again, the birth of a nation, Ang Lee at another shot to a Best Picture win, as well as Meryl Streep getting nod #20, and Oscar nominee Isabelle Huppert? Here’s my take on the top six races.

Picture

Directing

Actor

Actress

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

Sinag Maynila 2016   Leave a comment

Sinag

So yesterday I did a marathon of all Sinag Maynila entries. Sinag Maynila is a project close to me since I worked on it in its initial year up until the announcement/selection for this batch (before I left my previous work). I was really interested with the movies this year particularly because I already have a clue with these entries, so to see them translated in the big screen is what made me excited. Anyway, here are short thoughts on the 2016 batch.

  1. TPO (Joselito Altarejos)
    Probably the best in this bunch, Altarejos managed to capture in less than 80 minutes the pain, the process, the aftermath of domestic violence and how this goes beyond the victim and the abuser. Characters weren’t one-dimensional and the use of long shots made the situation linger. If anything, TPO shows how people cope up with this illness and how it’s reflective of our society.

    4/5

  2. Expressway (Ato Bautista)
    Everything in Expressway is flamboyant from its full opening credits to its choreographer stunts. One can make a case that it has a tendency to go style over substance for a paper thin story that’s predictable and excessive, but it was a joyride to see Alvin Anson and Aljur Abrenica navigate through it – the former to get a leading role like this, the latter to totally embrace the batshit character he’s portraying (even if in some scenes, he went full retard). Oh, and for some reason, setting the film during Christmas season somehow added to its appeal.

    3/5

  1. MRS. (Adolf Alix)
    MRS. is a character study for its lead Virignia (what a comeback for the always dependable Elizabeth Oropesa) as she deals with everything happening around her – her older sister wanting to sell the lot of her house, her loyal house helper who’s getting married, her daughter who has joined a cult, her missing child. She’s living in a house situated on a fault line thus her house has cracks and looks old which probably signifies where she is in her life right now. The film contains really powerful moments, and I acknowledge the intent more than I appreciate it. That said, Alix continues to bring out the best in his actors.

    2.5/5

  2. Dyamper (Mes de Guzman)
    What’s exciting about Dyamper is director Mes de Guzman’s humor obviously present in it. When following about the lives of these so-called “dyampers”, the movie is at its peak. The back story of Alchris Galura’s character however, while not cringe-worthy and him totally selling it, felt a bit disjointed than the “dyamper” storyline. It’s not actually bad, but I think there’s a lack of smooth transition between these two parts that’s a tad jarring.

    2.5/5

  3. Lila (Gino M. Santos)
    Philbert Dy summed it best when he said that “Lila feels like a script that Regal rejected.” For what it’s worth, the film was stylishly done and everyone involved seemed so committed with it. That said, not only is the lead character one of the more clueless leads in recent horror film memory, but probably one of the slowest readers… ever? Like if I discovered someone’s thin diary, you bet on it I’m done with it by the second hour, notes and all. Heh.

    1/5

Since the Gabi ng Parangal happens tonight, I’ll offer my personal choices on this batch’s winners. Picture and Directing obviously goes to TPO and Joselito Altarejos. Actor I give to Aljur Abrenica (give or take his really over the top scenes, but playing that annoying young character seems right up his alley). Actress is obviously Elizabeth Oropesa (no contest!). Screenplay and Editing go to TPO, Cinematography is Dyamper, Production Design is MRS, and Score goes to Expressway. Lila probably gets best outfits for Enchong Dee.

Sinag

While we’re at it, I still invite you to watch all five films from this year’s Sinag Maynila. And (heh), avail the Sinag Maynila ePLUS Festival Kit Card because trust me, it’ll save you a lot of money (I think a movie is at Php280 each if I’m not mistaken). Until next year! #SinagMaynila2016

88th Academy Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

Every time we say that a certain year is the craziest season ever,  the coming season proves to be more insane than the previous one. And that fact holds true for this year, as momentum shifted all throughout the season. Between  #OscarsSoWhite, #OscarsSoStraight, the Spotlight/The Big Short/Mad Max/The Revenant momentum shift, the existence of Jacob Tremblay, and Diane Ladd being “upset and chagrined”, we’ve finally come to the near end of the awards season a.k.a the pitstop which is the Oscars!

And as you figure out if you’re Team Ryan vs. Rachel, bear vs. Brie, spies vs. space, and Saoirse vs. Furiosa, let me present my predictions in all Oscar categories.

Original Screenplay

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

The screenplay categories are usually reserved for Best Picture contenders unless there’s something so groundbreaking that comes along (such is the case for Charlie Kaufman’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in 2004 or Pedro Almodovar’s Talk to Her in 2002). This year’s nominees however had a small crossover with the Picture category as it’s only Bridge of Spies and Spotlight that got in here (for the record, the other six nominees are all ineligible here). That said, this one is the token award for Spotlight for many reasons: it’s a really good screenplay, it tackles an important topic, and it’s a consolation for being the frontrunner back in October – November. Ideally, Bridge of Spies is the runner-up, but it just feels like a filler nomination here. I’d probably go with Inside Out because the complexities of it is just something the writers would probably acknowledge.

PREDICTION: Spotlight (Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer)
ALTERNATE: Inside Out (Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen)

Adapted Screenplay

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Using the same logic above, all but Carol here were nominated for the Best Picture category, which is a shame basically. But enough about my personal feelings. The strongest contender here is The Big Short with its WGA and BAFTA win under its belt. Just like Spotlight, the director is also one half of the film’s writers, it’s also tackling an important and very American issue, and it’s a consolation for being the frontrunner back in early January. The closest to an alternate is probably Emma Donoghue as she translated her own work from a literary piece to the big screen, and Room is that little film that could ignite real passion.

PREDICTION: The Big Short (Adam McKay, Charles Randolph)
ALTERNATE: Room (Emma Donoghue)

Supp Actor

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

What was supposed to be a really messy category ended up a really safe one as we enter the Oscar nomination stage. Remember when the Globes, SAG, BFCA, and BAFTA have different lineups in this category? And while it’s a bit unusual that Sylvester Stallone missed both SAG and BAFTA (and by miss, we mean he wasn;t even nominated), he still remains as the frontrunner here. The thing here is after his Globe win (okay his BFCA but really lol), his next stop is directly at the Oscars, and for things to work his way, both the SAG and the BAFTA must have different winners so that no one can gain momentum. The only two people nominated for both were Christian Bale and Mark Rylance. Luckily for him, the un-nominated Idris Elba won SAG (and while Elba was excellent in it, it’s basically an answer tot he diversity issue) while Mark Rylance won BAFTA. It also didn’t help that Rylance basically uncampaigned for himself the whole season — only attending the Globes when he lost that one. Watch out for Mark Ruffalo though especially is Spotlight comes strong at the Oscars. But alas, come Sunday night, we’ll be living in a world where we have acting Oscar winner Rocky Balboa.

PREDICTION: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
ALTERNATE: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Supp Actress

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

In a year when we can finally call both Jennifer Jason-Leigh and Rachel McAdams as Oscar nominees, it’s rather unfortunate that the win isn’t between the two of them. Like Ruffalo, McAdams has a small chance as I think she’s the dark horse in this category. Then there’s Rooney Mara (or as Diane Ladd calls her, Rooney Moore) who won the Cannes (again, as Diane Ladd calls it – the Carn) Best Actress award for Carol. By now, Carol just feels like an afterthought at the Oscars, and I don’t see it winning anywhere here. The race here is basically between GG + BAFTA winner Kate Winslet vs. BFCA + SAG winner Alicia Vikander. In previous instances, the former is the stronger case than the latter (see wins by Marion Cotillard, Christoph Waltz in Django, Nicole Kidman, and Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady). However, it has to be mentioned that in the two instances that Kate won, Alicia Vikander was nominated for her turn in the low budgeted sci-fi Ex Machina. The two wins of Vikander where she beat Kate Winslet was for The Danish Girlthe same performance that’s nominated here. I think that’s a very important detail in this discussion, and add the fact that Vikander is an ingenue playing a suffering wife role (in short, this category’s two hard-ons), and voila, you have your Oscar winner!

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
ALTERNATE: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Lead Actor

LEAD ACTOR:

Leonardo di Caprio. End of discussion.

Welp I’m joking. With the end of the discussion part I mean. But yes, it’s time to say goodbye to the memes. Leonardo di Caprio is finally winning an Oscar. And I can already imagine the standing ovation. It’s gonna be long, and there’s gonna be tears, and a camera will be panned to Kate Winslet crying as if it wasn’t Rose’s fault why Jack died in that obscure little movie they starred together 19 years ago called Titanic (do you remember that one?). And I’m happy for Leo, as we know that’s one off his bucket list. He knows this is the closest chance he had at winning, and he milked every moment of it surpassing all his co-nominees. As for starters, he went all the way to the Pope. I mean he has God on his side already (sorry Matt Damon but God is farther than the space you’re stuck with in The Martian). Second, di Caprio is so intense as an actor that you have no idea he almost died getting that Oscar shooting The Revenant (did you experience that too Bryan Cranston? No? Oh better luck next time). Third, he knows how to choose the roles that will finally net him the win (There’s a reason why he passed on that Jobs role, Fassbender). And lastly, he even sent a prepared Skype video of his speech at the BFCA  when he can’t attend (Not even Eddie Redmayne thought of doing that last year). Basically what I’m saying is that it’s time.

PREDICTION:  Leonardo di Caprio, The Revenant
ALTERNATE: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Lead Actress

LEAD ACTRESS:

There’s one performance that swept all the precursors in this category this year, and obviously it’s the same performance winning on Sunday night. Brie Larson will walk away with an Oscar for her riveting performance in Room. There really is a strong support for the movie (as proven by director Lenny Abrahamson’s surprise Directing nod), and Brie is this award season’s darling with trades calling her as the next big thing already. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s friends with some of the it girls in Hollywood (co-nominee Jennifer Lawrence as for starters, Amy Schumer too, and then Rooney Mara as well). It’s basically a coronation of another Hollywood it girl, and we can’t be happier enough as she deserves it.

PREDICTION: Brie Larson, Room
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Directing

DIRECTING:

History is about to be rewritten as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu will win his consecutive Best Directing Oscar for The Revenant. With the narrative of how much it was difficult to make The Revenant, he’s about to be rewarded with a second Oscar in here especially since he also won the Directors Guild which is the most accurate precursor in this category. Both McKay and McCarthy will be getting their dues in the Screenplay category, and Abrahamson is the unique passion vote that has no chance of winning. Miller could have had the momentum on his side had he won the DGA which unfortunately he didn’t. At this stage, no matter what happens in the Best Picture race is different, as this one’s a lock already.

PREDICTION: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
ALTERNATE: Adam McKay, The Big Short

Animated Feature

This is a really strong category, and I applaud the Academy for going with films like When Marnie was There and Boy and the World here. That said, this is Inside Out‘s award, as it probably won 99% of all the Animated Feature awards given throughout this season (and deservedly so). It’s a bit sad when you think how the film didn’t fare stronger outside of this category (except for that weak Original Screenplay one.)

PREDICTION: Inside Out
ALTERNATE: Anomalisa

Foreign Language Film

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Ever since the Academy changed the voting winner of the pattern here (they’re up for grabs for the whole membership instead of a small panel of voters who will sign they’ve watched all five movies nominated), the winner has always been the most buzzed film of the group. Son of Saul is that movie this year. Coming off from a Jury Prize winner at Cannes, winning countless Foreign Language Film mentions one after the other, Hollywood can’t resist this Holocaust story. That said, there were rumors that this didn’t make it the shortlist in a popular vote. In that case, watch out for crowd-pleasing Mustang as France aims another win in this category. That said, I’d still give Son of Saul the advantage.

PREDICTION: Son of Saul
ALTERNATE: Mustang

Documentary Feature

The documentary about the late Amy Winehouse seems like the frontrunner here as it won majority of the precursors in this category. That said, it’s really not the type that wins here if we’re basing it at history. Interestingly enough, the closest contender is about another musician – Nina Simone, as Netflix campaigned the hell out of What Happened, Miss Simone? Netflix has been very eager to duplicate their TV domination at the Oscars, and the all around snubbing of Beasts of No Nation will just pump themselves up further in this category. That said, I wonder how the great Joshua Oppenheimer feels, that every time his documentary is nominated here, it loses to a musically-themed film (flashback to The Act of Killing losing to 20 Feet from Stardom two years ago).

PREDICTION: Amy
ALTERNATE: What Happened, Miss Simone?

Now here are the rest of the technical categories (which is difficult because Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant are competing in eight of this (save for Score and Song) and we really don’t know how the Academy will vote here:

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Remember when we used to be upset before when we feel like the Academy doesn’t recognize the greatness of Chivo Lubezki? I guess the Oscars make up for it so much that he’s now a shoo-in to win his third consecutive Academy Award in this category for The Revenant.

PREDICTION: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
ALTERNATE: 
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

COSTUME DESIGN:

While Sandy Powell is competing against herself in this category, I think it’s Jenny Beavan is the one to win the Oscar as part of the semi-sweep by Mad Max in here. That said, we really can’t dismiss the really showy costume work done in Cinderella.

PREDICTION: Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
ALTERNATE: Sandy Powell, Cinderella

FILM EDITING:

While a nomination here is crucial for a movie aiming for a Best Picture win, only one of the last five winners of this category has won Best Picture (that would be 2012’s Argo). Lately, they’re into really showy and flashy editing which makes me think it’s between The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road. I’ll be giving the edge to the former.

PREDICTION: Hank Corwin, The Big Short
ALTERNATE: 
Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road

HAIRSTYLING AND MAKE UP:

And here’s another Mad Max/Revenant showdown. People have really been amazed by the makeup in The Revenant especially that of the close ups of di Caprio’s face, but I think the overall work in Mad Max: Fury Road will prevail.

PREDICTION: Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, Damian Martin, Mad Max: Fury Road
ALTERNATE:
Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert Pandini, The Revenant

ORIGINAL SCORE:

It’s time to give the legendary Ennio Morricone a competitive Oscar. Sure he won an Honorary one nine years ago, but this is one of the times AMPAS is playing catch up. The great thing is that he actually deserves it. That said, don’t underestimate the nostalgia that Star Wars brought to the voters as it’s done by the most nominated person in the history of this category.

PREDICTION: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
ALTERNATE: 
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

ORIGINAL SONG:

To quote the mighty Diane Ladd, “I am upset and chagrined” with what happened to this category this year. While this has given us the delight of calling 50 Shades of Grey an Oscar nominated film, this year seems to be the most problematic. You know shit just happened when you’re rooting for Wiz Khalifa song, but See You Again was snubbed here. For what it’s worth, both Simple Song #3 and Manta Ray are great songs, and the producers have fucked up not giving the performers the right to perform their song in whole just because they are not mainstream artists. Sadly, the race is between two drecks: Sam Smith’s abomination of coming up with a Bond song, then there’s the pairing of Diane Warren and Lady Gaga who’s campaigning desperation combined made Leonardo di Caprio look like Joaquin fucking Phoenix. In a fair world, none of these two messes should have been nominated in the first place, but I guess an overdue win for Diane Warren will happen just so the Academy can finally be over and done with her. 

PREDICTION: Til It Happens to You (The Hunting Ground)
ALTERNATE: 
Writings on the Wall (Spectre)

PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Just for completely setting up a whole world in the entirety of the film, I guess Mad Max will win this one over The Revenant which is mostly criticized for it being an “outside shoot.” Don’t underestimate Bridge of Spies as this type of traditional production design has its passionate supporters, as proven by Lincoln‘s upset in 2012, incidentally another Spielberg film.

PREDICTION:
 Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson, Mad Max: Fury Road
ALTERNATE: 
Jack Fisk, Hamish Purdy, The Revenant

SOUND EDITING:

What I’ve noticed here is that when different films end up winning Editing and Mixing, it’s because the winner in Mixing (which tends to go to musicals) aren’t nominated in Editing instead of the other way around. But when the Mixing winner is eligible for both, it wins both (the only time in the last 15 years it didn’t happen is when Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight won one apiece). This same scenario can happen to both The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road, but I doubt the majority of the voting body cares more than us, so let’s just say The Revenant will be winning both Sound categories.

PREDICTION: The Revenant
ALTERNATE: 
Mad Max: Fury Road

SOUND MIXING:
PREDICTION: 
The Revenant
ALTERNATE: 
Mad Max: Fury Road

VISUAL EFFECTS:

The golden rule here is that when there’s a Best Picture contender here, count on it to make it a part of the sweep. That is unless you’re competing against another contender (see: District 9 losing to Avatar in 2009 or Master and Commander losing to Return of the King in 2003). As a matter of fact, you have to go all the way back to 1970 to see a Best Picture contender lose here with Patton. So what happens when you have three of the five nominees here are Best Picture contenders too? Then there’s the other fact, one where in all three Star Wars films won this category too. And among the prequels, two of those are nominated as well. This category could really go to many directions; thus, I’ll just be going with another Star Wars win. The Revenant can upset this as part of the sweep and because the much-talked about bear rape scene is the stuff that wins you Oscars here.

PREDICTION: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
ALTERNATE: 
The Revenant

There you ha..oh wait. We have Best Picture left.

best picture

PICTURE:

What a crazy year for this category. As for starters, it seemed like Spotlight had the momentum all throughout the season being the uniter of critical choices as well as the populist one. It was a movie that has a strong message, it had a great ensemble, and it conveys a sense of “importance.” That is until, we’ve seen its televised awards performance dwindle. Remember when Michael Keaton was supposed to be nominated too? And then there’s the ACE Editing snub which made it seem like Spotlight was a weak frontrunner all along. Then came The Big Short getting in all the momentum as it got nominated among all guilds where it was predicted to receive. After all, it’s about an important time in America, it’s timely, it’s political, and it’s about white dudes. Then there was the Mad Max: Fury Road contingent as well; basically revived by the critics and hitting in precursors left and right.

Come Golden Globes, The Revenant ends up sweeping, and we’re all probably like “hey it’s just a makeup win because they snubbed Birdman last year.” Which was half true. But the other truth is that it’s from the current Best Director winner starring the likely Best Actor champion who is also the biggest star in the world. And while we’re at that, they snubbed both Spotlight and The Big Short whose total wins is zilch. The BFCA stayed safe and went with Spotlight again. At the Oscar nomination announcement, The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, Spotlight, and The Big Short all performed well, some more than others. But  come Producers Guild Awards, which uses the same voting practice as the Oscars, The Big Short ended up with the win; thus making it the frontrunner again. After all, it’s about an important time in America, it’s timely, it’s political, and it’s about white dudes.

At the SAG Awards, current frontrunner The Big Short was expected to win the Ensemble award, which is mostly the equivalent of Best Picture then. So when Demi Moore (are we in the 90s?) announced “the cast of Spotlight“, oh wait we have a new frontrunner again, and it’s Spotlight. It was a movie that has a strong message, it had a great ensemble, and it conveys a sense of “importance.”

When the DGA awarded it to The Revenant, it’s getting clearer that Mad Max is a clear fourth in this race. Maybe The Revenant was the frontrunner all along. It topped the nomination tally, it has the Best Actor winner (which has a good crossover with Best Picture), and they really seem to buy its narrative of “we almost died for this film!” The BAFTAs follow suit but unlike the Globes, we can’t say “hey it’s just a makeup win because they snubbed Birdman last year.” Which was still half true.Again, it’s from the current Best Director winner starring the likely Best Actor champion who is also the biggest star in the world.

Now think about it. If The Revenant is winning this, then why it didn’t win PGA? How come The Big Short won there? Remember that it’s the one that used the same voting patterns as the Oscar. A movie with few #1s can still benefit if it has more #2s and #3s than a film with #1s yet has #9s as well. So which among between Spotlight (It was a movie that has a strong message, it had a great ensemble, and it conveys a sense of “importance.”), The Big Short (It’s about an important time in America, it’s timely, it’s political, and it’s about white dudes.), and The Revenant (It’s from the current Best Director winner starring the likely Best Actor champion who is also the biggest star in the world) will prevail?

PREDICTION: The Revenant
ALTERNATE: Spotlight

The Oscars happen on Monday here in Manila at 9AM! Happy Oscars day! Tweet to talk to me about the Oscars: @nikowl

58th Grammy Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

The biggest night in music comes in two days, and this year is more close than ever. With Kendrick Lamar leading the nods at 11, he’s poised to sweep this year. Then there’s Taylor Swift in her biggest era yet, and The Weeknd also earning seven nominations. The night won’t be shy of memorable performances as well from Adele, to a David Bowie and B.B. King tribute. Now, here are my predictions in 30 different categories among ten different fields.

aoty

ALBUM OF THE YEAR:
Alabama Shakes, Sound and Color
Kendrick Lamar, To Pimp a Butterfly
Chris Stapleton, Traveller
Taylor Swift, 1989
The Weeknd, Beauty Behind the Madness

PREDICTION: Alabama Shakes, “Sound & Color”. While mainstream media is busy painting this as a three-way fightbetween Taylor, Kendrick, and The Weeknd (which also happens to be the three top nomination getter this year), the actual biggest top honor isn’t really among the three. Just like Arcade Fire’s win in 2010, Alabama Shakes will end up with the win here.

ALTERNATE: Chris Stapleton, “Traveller”. If not them, count on the country bloc to support Chris Stapleton all the way to an AOTY victory especially considering that this is his only nod at the General Field this year.

roty

RECORD OF THE YEAR:
D’Angelo and the Vanguard, “Really Love
Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars, “Uptown Funk
Ed Sheeran, “Thinking Out Loud
Taylor Swift, “Blank Space
The Weeknd, “Can’t Feel my Face

PREDICTION: Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars, “Uptown Funk.” Uptown Funk has all the staples of a win here — a song with heavy instruments, relatively huge, a performer they love to nominate. It’s basically pop culture staple that has the respect of the critics as well,. Have you seen how they responded to it during the Superbowl? To say it’s massive is an understatement.

ALTERNATE: The Weeknd, “Can’t Feel My Face.” Only one of the two songs this year to garner both ROTY and SOTY nods, The Weeknd’s homage to Michael is very much in contention to win here.

soty

SONG OF THE YEAR:
Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”
Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”
Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”
Wiz Kahifa feat. Charlie Puth, “See You Again”
Ed Sheeran, “Thinking Out Loud”

PREDICTION: Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”. On her most successful era yet, the Grammys won’t let it pass without giving her a General Field win. AOTY has been achieved five years ago already, it’s time to add another one on the list.

ALTERNATE: Ed Sheeran, “Thinking Out Loud”. This is basically the Academy’s catnip here. Think of white male singer with a heartfelt anthem. They’ve proven their love to Ed by giving him nominations in all Big 4 categories, maybe the next stage is to finally give him wins.

bna

BEST NEW ARTIST:
Courtney Barnett
James Bay
Sam Hunt
Tori Kelly
Meghan Trainor

PREDICTION: Sam Hunt. In a very open race like this, anything can really happen. Count on the country bloc to support their fellow to have their GF win. After all, it’s been six years since a country act has last won in here.

ALTERNATE: James Bay. He;s the only one aside from Hunt to garner multiple nods here. But then again, he’s the type who strikes me as one who got multiple nominations only to lose all of them (see India Arie in 2001, Avril Lavigne in 2002, James Blunt in 2006).

POP FIELD:

pop

POP SOLO PERFORMANCE:
Kelly Clarkson, “Heartbeat Song”
Ellie Goulding, “Love Me Like You Do”
Ed Sheeran, “Thinking Out Loud”
Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”
The Weeknd, “Can’t Feel My Face”

It’s a battle between Taylor and Weeknd again, but expect Taylor to dominate the Pop categories to add to her haul.

PREDICTION: Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”
ALTERNATE: The Weeknd, “Can’t Feel My Face”

POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE:
Florence + The Machine, ” Ship to Wreck”
Maroon 5, “Sugar”
Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars, “Uptown Funk”
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar, “Bad Blood”
Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth, “See You Again”

This seems like an easy win for Mark and Bruno, which I still think will happen unless they want to go one-two punch of a moment between Taylor and Kendrick on stage.

PREDICTION: Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars, “Uptown Funk”
ALTERNATE: Taylor Swift featuring Kendrick Lamar, “Bad Blood”

POP VOCAL ALBUM:
Kelly Clarkson, Piece by Piece
Florence + The Machine, How Big, How Blue, How Beautiful
Mark Ronson, Uptown Special
Taylor Swift, 1989
James Taylor, Before This World

While this is another part of the 1989 sweep that will happen on Grammy night, James Taylor comes a tad close for his first career #1 album. That said, Taylor can breathe as she’s still winning this handily.

PREDICTION: Taylor swift, “1989”
ALTERNATE: James Taylor, “Before This World”

TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM:
Tony Bennett & Bill Charlap, The Silver Lining: The Songs of Jerome Kern
Bob Dylan, Shadows in the Night
Josh Groban, Stages
Seth MacFarlane, No One Ever Tells You
Barry Manilow (& Various Artists), My Dream Duets

This has been Bennett’s category for years now, but every now and then there are exceptions. With his hit album,Josh Groban can look at his first Grammy win of his career. Unless they can’t resist rewarding perennial favorite Bob Dylan.

PREDICTION: Josh Groban, “Stages”
ALTERNATE: Bob Dylan, “Shadows in the Night”

DANCE & ELECTRONIC FIELD:

dance recording

DANCE RECORDING:
Above & Beyond feat. Zoë Johnston, :We’re All We Need”
The Chemical Brothers, “Go:
Flying Lotus feat. Kendrick Lamar, “Never Catch Me”
Galantis, “Runaway (U & I)”
Skrillex and Diplo With Justin Bieber, “Where Are Ü Now”

We’re looking at Grammy winner Justin Bieber here. Yup, that’s happening.

PREDICTION: Skrillex, Diplo, Justin BIeber, “Where Are U Now”
ALTERNATE: The Chemical Brothers featuring Q-Tip, “Go”

dance album

DANCE/ELECTRONIC ALBUM:
Caribou, Our Love
The Chemical Brothers, Born in the Echoes
Disclosure, Caracal
Jamie XX, In Colour
Skrillex and Diplo, Skrillex and Diplo Present Jack Ü

At this point, it’s probably a double whammy already for Skrillex, whom they really love in this category. If not them, then maybe critically lauded Jamie xx, can take home the Grammy.

PREDICTION: Skrillex, Diplo,”Skrillex and Siplo Present Jack U”
ALTERNATE: Jamie xx, “In Colour”

ROCK & ALTERNATIVE FIELD:

rock and alternative

ROCK PERFORMANCE:
Alabama Shakes, “Don’t Wanna Fight”
Florence + The Machine,”What Kind Of Man”
Foo Fighters, “Something From Nothing”
Elle King, “Ex’s & Oh’s”
Wolf Alice, “Moaning Lisa Smile”

Consider this the start of Alabama Shakes’ sweep on Grammy night. That said, isn’t it refreshing to have four women vocals in here? I hope this trend continues soon enough to kill the notion that only male artists do know rock.

PREDICTION: Alabama Shakes, “Don’t Wanna Fight”
ALTERNATE: Florence + the Machine, “What Kind of Man”

ROCK SONG:
Alabama Shakes, “Don’t Wanna Fight”
Elle King, “Ex’s & Oh’s”
James Bay, “Hold Back the River”
Highly Suspect, “Lydia”
Florence + the Machine, “What Kind of Man”

File this under another win for Alabama Shakes. That said, James Bay could be the spoiler in this category.

PREDICTION: Alabama Shakes, “Don’t Wanna Fight”
ALTERNATE: James Bay, “Hold Back the River”

ROCK ALBUM:
James Bay, Chaos and the Calm
Death Cab for Cutie, Kintsugi
Highly Suspect, Mister Asylum
Muse, Drones
Slipknot, .5: The Gray Chapter

As mentioned, James Bay is giving me the vibe of that multi-nominated artist who’ll end up with nothing. That plus the narrative of Death Cab for Cutie and their last album makes me think they can pull off the win.

PREDICTION: Death Cab for Cutie, “Kintsugi”
ALTERNATE: James Bay, “Chaos and the Calm”

ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM:
Alabama Shakes, Sound & Color
Björk, Vulnicura
My Morning Jacket, The Waterfall
Tame Impala, Currents
Wilco, Star Wars

I’m predicting Sound & Color for friggin Album of the Year it just makes sense I’ll predict them here. And before you bring me to Arcade Fire and The Black Keys 2011 upset, I think that’s more of an exception here. If there’s an upset here though, consider Bjork to finally receive her first Grammy.

PREDICTION: Alabama Shakes, “Sound & Color”
ALTERNATE: Bjork, “Vulnicura”

R&B FIELD:

rnb.png

R&B PERFORMANCE
Tamar Braxton, “If I Don’t Have You”
Andra Day, “Rise Up”
Hiatus Kaiyote, “Breathing Underwater”
Jeremih feat. J. Cole, “Planes”
The Weeknd, “Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey)”

The R&B categories have been difficult to predict the last couple of years, but I think they won’t resist going with The Weeknd in here to officially welcome him to the big leagues. That is unless they reward the more traditional work of Andra Day.

PREDICTION: The Weeknd, “Earned It”
ALTERNATE: Andra Day, “Rise Up”

TRADITIONAL R&B PERFORMANCE:
Faith Evans, “He Is”
Lalah Hathaway, “Little Ghetto Boy”
Jazmine Sullivan, “Let It Burn”
Tyrese, “Shame”
Charlie Wilson, “My Favorite Part of You”

Tyrese has the biggest hit in this group, but will the Academy bite? On the other hand, Lalah Hathaway has been snatching out of nowhere wins the past few years, plus this has the “importance” factor, so maybe count on that to win a new one.

PREDICTION: Lalah Hathaway, “Little Ghetto Boy”
ALTERNATE: Tyrese, “Shame”

R&B SONG:
Miguel, “Coffee”
The Weeknd, “Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey)”
Jazmine Sullivan, “Let It Burn”
D’Angelo and The Vanguard, “Really Love”
Tyrese, “Shame”

This is really a close one between Abel and D’Angelo, but part of me thinks they’re going with their pal that they’ve known longer. Plus, that ROTY nomination is telling. Never discount a Weeknd sweep though.

PREDICTION: D’Angelo and the Vanguard, “Really Love”
ALTERNATE: The Weeknd, “Earned It”

URBAN CONTEMPORARY ALBUM:
The Internet, Ego Death
Kehlani, You Should Be Here
Lianne La Havas, Blood
Miguel, Wildheart
The Weeknd, Beauty Behind the Madness

Now this one is easier. We’re sure this will be a part of Weeknd’s mini-sweep. No AOTY nominated album has lost this category yet (unless losing to another co-AOTY nominee).

PREDICTION: The Weeknd, “Beauty Behind the Madness”
ALTERNATE: Miguel, “Wildheart”

R&B ALBUM:
Leon Bridges, Coming Home
D’Angelo and the Vanguard, Black Messiah
Andra Day, Cheers to the Fall
Jazmine Sullivan, Reality Show
Charlie Wilson, Forever Charlie

D’Angelo’s comeback comes full circle as he’s surely taking this. Leon Bridges still has a chance, but for some reason, he missed some big nods (including the one many predicted him for… Best New Artist).

PREDICTION: D’Angelo and the Vanguard, “Black Messiah”
ALTERNATE: Leon Bridges, “Coming Home”

RAP FIELD:

rap

RAP PERFORMANCE:
J. Cole, “Apparently”
Drake, “Back to Back”
Fetty Wap, “Trap Queen”
Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”
Nicki Minaj feat. Drake & Lil Wayne, “Truffle Butter”
Kanye West feat. Theophilus London, Allan Kingdom & Paul McCartney, “All Day”

This is the start of Kendrick’s domination at the Grammys on Monday night. Like no one’s even close. Not even Kanye being pals with Paul McCartney.

PREDICTION: Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”
ALTERNATE: J.Cole, “Apparently”

RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION:
Big Sean feat. Kanye West & John Legend, “One Man Can Change the World”
Common & John Legend, “Glory”
Jidenna feat. Roman GianArthur, “Classic Man”
Kendrick Lamar feat. Bilal, Anna Wise & Thundercat, “These Walls”
Nicki Minaj feat. Drake, Lil Wayne & Chris Brown, “Only”

Count on the Oscar-winning duo to repeat a victory here. Unless they’d really go hard for Lamar.

PREDICTION: Common and John Legend, “Glory”
ALTERNATE: Kendrick Lamar featuring Bilal, Anna Wise, and Thundercat, “These Walls”

RAP SONG:
Kanye West feat. Theophilus London, Allan Kingdom & Paul McCartney, “All Day”
Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”
Drake, “Energy”
Common & John Legend, “Glory”
Fetty Wap, “Trap Queen”

Rule of thumb is, count on the SOTY nominee to prevail unless there’s more than one in the group.

PREDICTION: Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”
ALTERNATE: Common and John Legend, “Glory”

RAP ALBUM:
J. Cole, 2014 Forest Hills Drive
Dr. Dre, Compton
Drake, If Youre Reading This Its Too Late
Kendrick Lamar, To Pimp a Butterfly
Nicki Minaj, The Pinkprint

Again, this will be a part of a huge Kendrick sweep. Like it will be the biggest upset ever if Kendrick doesn’t win this. On a distant second though is Dr. Dre who has some sort of a small narrative for him.

PREDICTION: Kendrick Lamar, “To Pimp A Butterfly”
ALTERNATE: Dr. Dre, “Compton”

COUNTRY FIELD:

country

COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE:
Cam, “Burning House”
Chris Stapleton, “Traveller”
Carrie Underwood, “Little Toy Guns”
Keith Urban, “John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16”
Lee Ann Womack, “Chances Are”

Chris Stapleton is the big name in country music the past year, that you’d know he has this one in the bag. That said, never underestimate Carrie Underwood who’s a favorite both in this category and when they still used to separate them before.

PREDICTION: Chris Stapleton, “Traveller”
ALTERNATE: Carrie Underwood, “Little Toy Guns”

COUNTRY DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE:
Brothers Osborne, “Stay a Little Longer”
Joey + Rory, “If I Needed You”
Charles Kelley, Dierks Bentley & Eric Paslay, “The Driver”
Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”
Blake Shelton feat. Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight”

The usual suspects are actually MIA here, so expect Little Big Town to easily steamroll in this category.

PREDICTION: Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”
ALTERNATE: Blake Shelton, Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight”

COUNTRY SONG:
Lee Ann Womack, “Chances Are”
Tim McGraw, “Diamond Rings And Old Barstools”
Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”
Brandy Clark, “Hold My Hand”
Chris Stapleton, “Traveller”

It’s Stapleton vs. Little Big Town here, but the SOTY nomination of Little Big Town gives it the edge.

PREDICTION: Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”
ALTERNATE: Chris Stapleton, “Traveller”

COUNTRY ALBUM:
Sam Hunt, Montevallo
Little Big Town, Pain Killer
Ashley Monroe, The Blade
Kacey Musgraves, Pageant Material
Chris Stapleton, Traveller

The AOTY nominee has this one in the bag, especially considering that he’s also in real talk to win the biggest award as well.

PREDICTION: Chris Stapleton, “Traveller”
ALTERNATE: Kacey Musgraves,”Pageant Material”

VISUAL MEDIA:

soundtrack

SONG WRITTEN FOR VISUAL MEDIA:
The Weeknd, “Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)”
Common & John Legend, “Glory”
Ellie Goulding, “Love Me Like You Do”
Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth, “See You Again”
Lady Gaga, “Til It Happens to You”

This is a fairly popular group of hits except that Gaga song, and nope the Oscar nod won’t help it win this. It’s between the current Oscar winner or the biggest song in this bunch — both impactful songs, but one has the prestige and importance that the other lacks.

PREDICTION: Common and John Legend, “Glory”
ALTERNATE: Wiz Khalifa featuring Charlie Puth, “See You Again”

COMPILATION SOUNDTRACK:
Empire: Season 1
Fifty Shades of Grey
Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me
Pitch Perfect 2
Selma

Aside from Selma, I can see a case of the other nominees prevailing in here. That said, Empire was really huge the past year that I see it squeaking a win over its closest competitor, the 50 Shades soundtrack.

PREDICTION: Empire: Season 1
ALTERNATE: 50 Shaes of Grey

SCORE SOUNDTRACK:
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Are we looking at the Grammy category or the Best Picture Oscar category? Oh welp there’s Interstellar spoiling the list. I’d just stick with the one that won the Oscar category.

PREDICTION: The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
ALTERNATE: Birdman (Antonio Sanchez)

MUSIC VIDEO/FILM:

short form music video

MUSIC VIDEO:
A$AP Rocky, “LSD”
The Dead Weather, “I Feel Love”
Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar, “Bad Blood”
Pharrell Williams, “Freedom”

This usually goes to the biggest song in the bunch even if it has inspired quality of nominees. Either way, Kendrick wins.

PREDICTION: Taylor Swift featuring Kendrick Lamar, “Bad Blood”
ALTERNATE: Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”

music film

MUSIC FILM:
Foo Fighters, Sonic Highways
James Brown, Mr. Dynamite: The Rise of James Brown
Nina Simone, What Happened, Miss Simone
Roger Waters, The Wall
Amy Winehouse, Amy

This one’s between the two Oscar-nominated movies, and let’s just give it to the Oscar frontrunner.

PREDICTION: Amy
ALTERNATE: What Happened, Miss Simone?

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88th Academy Awards: Best Picture Rankings   2 comments

titlecard

This has been some sort of a tradition here at Tit for Tat, wherein I rank all the Oscar Best Picture nominees. This is the closest I can come to filling out a ballot, so imagine how yours would look like. It’s also rather unfortunate that the best American film of the year (among those that legitimately has a chance to get nominated) was criminally snubbed. In case you didn’t get the reference, that was for Todd Haynes’ Carol. The other snub this year is Pixar’s Inside Out, getting lost in the shuffle once guild and critics season began. That said, this season also has the widest Best Picture race since 2006, so that makes up for it at least.

Moving on, in 2012, it was Michael Haneke’s “Amour” which ended up as my #1. The following year, Spike Jonze’s “Her” was my top pick for 2013. Last year, Richard Linklater’s “Boyhood” was my personal choice among the 2014 nominees. Which film will join the list? Here’s my take from The Big Short to Spotlight.

The Martian

08. THE MARTIAN (Ridley Scott, director)

Decent popcorn thriller, yup. But Oscar Best Picture caliber it ain’t. In what is deemed as the “comeback” of Ridley Scott to form, we find Matt Damon growing potatoes in space. Of course, it’s really much more than that, and one thing that made The Martian work was how it managed to make its case separate from the two other “space” films of this decade (Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar). In hindsight, this light approach also ended up as a double edge-sword as it was so pedestrian in its predictability. There isn’t really anything to hold your attention here because the movie didn’t have anything at risk. With all the talks about how this was Ridley’s comeback, I’d make a case on how it was more of Matt Damon’s comeback. He’s certainly the star of this show, and the film bogs down whenever he’s not on screen. It’s a performance that relies heavily on an actor’s charisma, and he sure brought a lot to Mars in it. Anything outside of him suffers (all the NASA scenes in particular) and whoever thought that Donald Glover’s character suddenly saving the whole NASA group would surely make Abed from Community shake his damn head off. Even the big ‘saving’ scene in the end pales in comparison from all the other space films. Let’s just be thankful Matt Damon didn’t have a backstory so at least in that aspect, they’re redeemed. The Martian is as direct as one can get that it’s hilarious when it tries to present ‘conflict.’ For that alone, I’m good with its Comedy placement at the Golden Globes.

2.5/5

Brooklyn

07. BROOKLYN (John Crowley, director)

Home is where the heart is, but in Brooklyn‘s case, heart is where the home is. John Crowley’s Brooklyn goes straight to the point in its simple tale of a young immigrant coming to America in the 50s. There is so much heart in it that you can’t help but be swept away by the old-fashioned approach of the movie. But its simplicity is not without flaws. To an extent, it tends to go overboard with its saccharine sweetness. I also had issue with the film’s uneven pacing where there is a clear divide between acts with the last part losing the previous ones’ momentum. I’m also a tad bothered by the faux green screen in some scenes (especially the one in the liner. That said, Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan is a very gifted actress, and her performance is an integral part of why this film worked. Co-star Emory Cohen was such a delightful surprise though; at times, even providing the scene stealing performance in the movie.  With Brooklyn, simplicity is beauty and boy did it elevate that simplicity to certain heights.

2.5/5

The Revenant

06. THE REVENANT (Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu, director)

As for starters, let me say that I’m really not a fan of Iñarittu’s previous works in general, but I really have some conflicting thoughts about this. Suffice to say, Emmanuel Lubezki’s cinematography remains to be the highlight of it. It’s ironic that a film as “gritty” as this can look so glowing, thanks to Chivo. The Revenant started out really strong with its first 15 minutes or so, but as the movie progresses, so do the themes it tried to tackle. There’s revenge, there’s survival, there’s spirituality and it would have benefited by trimming at least one of those. Leonardo di Caprio’s physical commitment in the film is really admirable, but when you think of the works he has churned out in the last ten years alone (such as his underrated work in Shutter Island, or in Revolutionary Road and The Departed) or against his previous nominated performances in The Wolf of Wall Street and The Aviator, winning for this is a bit anti-climactic. But then again, it is probably for the better as we can finally put a rest to the internet’s claim on how he is the most overdue actor for an Oscar. Also, rearranging Tom Hardy’s name would lead you to DORTY HAM which is probably what he was serving in his performance. As much as the film has impressive moments here and there, my usual gripe with Alejandro’s works is present yet again, as he can’t seem to avoid the overindulgence in his movies.

3/5

Room

05. ROOM (Lenny Abrahamson, director)

There are those films that bring such discomfort while watching them that you find it real hard to revisit, and to a certain extent, Lenny Abrahamson’s Room fits the bill. Based from Emma Donoghue’s novel of the same title, the film is about a young mother and her son trapped and living in a small.. well.. uhm… room. The movie wasted no time in making the audience feel what was going through with Ma and Jack (played to perfection by Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay, but more of them later) that you’re already invested with the film and their situation. A film like this benefits from having these very detailed small scenes later building up to a huge bubble of emotions just waiting to explode, and as a viewer, there’s just no turning back anymore. At the risk of not being a spoiler, I’d leave the rest of what has happened in the movie, but let me say that this was gut wrenching throughout in a way that isn’t manipulative or forced (except for the musical score in some key scenes which were overdone). Brie Larson is expected to win the Best Actress Oscar at the end of this month, and deservedly so. Her performance is one you’d appreciate not right off the bat, but moreso for its lasting impact. And while I usually have reservations with performances from child actors, Jacob Tremblay is simply a revelation. What a find. Seeing his personality this whole awards season and that being so different than what was showcased in the movie can also be credited to the focused direction by Lenny Abrahamson.  Room is a film that resonates well even after the credits rolled already, and its effect lingers with you.

3.5/5

The BigShort

04. THE BIG SHORT (Adam McKay, director)

I’m probably one of the last persons to be personally affected by the American financial crisis back in 2008, but Adam McKay’s The Big Short was a joyride to watch from start to finish. Where the film’s main strength lies is its energy, outpouring with its quick cuts and use of loud soundtracks and memories of the 2008 fiasco that even if you’re not totally aware of the subject matter, it easily lures you in. What it makes up for its technicality with all its economic jargon thrown here and there are random celebrities ranging from Margot Robbie in a bathtub up to Selena Gomez breaking the fourth wall explaining to you what was really happening. From there, it’s a confident piece of work from someone who probably knew that a film whose theme is as heavy as this must be done in an opposite yet still skillful approach. That’s why when the film suddenly tries to go all in on the dramatic aftermath of the tragedy, the impact, while still there, stales a bit. Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, a film many has compared to this one, has done a much better job in injecting the balance to its energy. The ensemble was good and serviceable, with no one having a huge standout moment (except for the horrible wigs). The one thing that The Big Short excellently accomplished is that it delivered this relevant, thought-provoking message from a tragic time in America by simply capturing your attention to look in it.

3.5/5

Bridge of Spies

03. BRIDGE OF SPIES (Steven Spielberg, director)

When you’re a director as accomplished as Steven Spielberg, sometimes you’d wonder if they still have anything left to prove. Then there will also be those instances when you know they just want to tell a story. That’s how I viewed his Cold War drama Bridge of Spies. This latest Tom Hanks starrer is something that we’ve seen already many times in the past, but Spielberg puts his touch in it and turns into a solid and engaging time at the movies. It’s traditional, but it’s definitely the approach that this film needs. If this was done in the 90s, it probably would have won Oscars for everybody. It was solid and safe throughout from your usual Spielberg staples: Kaminski’s cinematography, Hanks in the lead role. I even find delight in the screenplay written by the Coens, as the output of line readings were enjoyable. If anything, I somehow missed John Williams’ score here (Thomas Newman just doesn’t cut it for me).  Oh and if anything, Mark Rylance was such a hoot, giving the classic supporting actor performance in the movie. Like The Martian, this is a film where you already have an idea on how it will play out in the end, but unlike that one, Spielberg makes it compelling all throughout the duration of the movie. But, he really just can’t help it with the last scene though, no?

3.5/5

Spotlight

02. SPOTLIGHT (Tom McCarthy, director)

Call it whatever you like — straightforward, text book approach, procedural, by the numbers. But these aren’t really negatives when it comes to Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight. As a matter of fact, rare is such an instance when someone manages to make these words sound great in the context of a movie. Spotlight is compelling in its topic, its scope, screenplay and its direction but what made it more effective is the restraint it had to avoid obvious tropes just to make it preachy and over dramatic. I understand, however, that this isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and what I might consider as good can be someone else’s serviceable. The movie also benefits from its ensemble of actors, from Michael Keaton’s low-key subtle leader to the team’s newest member Liev Schreiber. There’s also Oscar nominee Rachel McAdams (oh boy I love saying that!) contributing to the whole group. The only one who stands out differently for me was Mark Ruffalo, and while I feel that there are really people like his character, it’s a bit too outlandish for this usually dependable actor. Having the interest in journalism back from high school also appealed to me and probably is a factor with how I like Spotlight, but one can’t deny that it’s a assured, smart, and tight piece of powerful work.

4/5
Mad Max Fury Road

01. MAD MAX: FURY ROAD (George Miller, director)

Only few films take you into one helluva ride, and George Miller’s comeback along with the Mad Max series just sweeps everyone off its feet, dusty sands and all. It’s really insane that a franchise as dated as this one can breathe life even topping its predecessors (though one really doesn’t need to watch all the previous films to identify with this one). As for starters, it’s a visual spectacle on all levels, with its attention to the details a highlight — making you feel as if you’re a part of the whole journey with them. THE.FUN.JUST.WON’T.STOP. But more than anything else, it presents a very important take on feminism (with Charlize Theron’s Imperator Furiosa on the forefront) in this time and age when Beyonce has probably overused the same word to death already. Mad MaxFury Road never gets contented with just fulfilling our visual hunger with its polished colors, guitar players, and endless car chase scenes one after the other; with it, it also thrives to weave moments of tender sincerity and proclaim bold statements both in the world where these characters existed and to the audience’s as well. Everything about this projects seems risky on paper, but it all paid off. Indeed, it’s one of the best moments in cinema this past year (and of the decade too).

4.5/5

So how does your ranking look like? How many have you seen from this year’s batch? Which are your favorites? And who would you be rooting for come Oscar night? Talk to me about it by tweeting me:@nikowl

22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

Three weeks after the Golden Globes, the second of the Big 4 guilds will be announcing their winners as the Screen Actors Guild Awards happen this weekend. It’s a fairly “bad” year per se in terms of SAG acting nominees’ correlation to eventual Oscar nominees as it’s tying record of 14/20. Whether it’s because of late releases, Netflix, or their love for Helen Mirren, it’s both good and bad that the SAGs are going their own path. That said, here are the predictions in 14 different categories this year.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

film ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

PREDICTION: The Big ShortEnsembles can go two way really: big cast or well-utilized cast. The Big Short is more of the former. The names attached to it are some of the biggest and most respected in Hollywood that casting your vote for the film means an appreciation to Brad Pitt, Mark Ruffalo, Ryan Gosling, and Steve Carell. That’s too huge a ‘squad’ for them to pass on.

ALTERNATE: SpotlightThen there’s the well-utilized cast of Spotlight. Previously, this category tends to reward stronger traditional ensembles such as this one. But then again, the SAG Ensemble award has also been indirectly referred to as the “Best Picture” category at the SAGs that sometimes the stronger picture automatically wins. This year, The Big Short fills that bill.

film actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
JOHNNY DEPP / James “Whitey” Bulger – “BLACK MASS” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass – “THE REVENANT” (20th Century Fox)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Leonardo di Caprio, The Revenant. It’s really di Caprio’s year; thus, there’s no one stopping him. Like you have no idea how it’s not even close. After all, he hasn’t won an individual SAG (or even an Ensemble SAG) for that matter.

ALTERNATE: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo. Cranston probably comes to a distant second only because of the TV factor. His Walter White is still one of the most iconic TV characters in recent years, but even that wouldn’t be enough to topple Hurricane Leo.

film actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
BRIE LARSON / Ma – “ROOM” (A24)
HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann – “WOMAN IN GOLD” (The Weinstein Company)
SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis – “BROOKLYN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks – “I SMILE BACK” (Broad Green Pictures)

PREDICTION: Brie Larson, Room. Larson gets the advantage here considering that she has been the stronger frontrunner all along. Besides, Room, despite missing on an Ensemble nod, has two nominations as compared to her closest competitor which happens to be…

ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn. Unless tides shift, then Ronan still probably has a chance. Surprisingly enough, this is her first SAG nomination (she was snubbed for Atonement) so both her and Larson are ingenues in the race.

film supp actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry – “THE BIG SHORT” (Paramount Pictures)
IDRIS ELBA / Commandant – “BEASTS OF NO NATION” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph – “BRIDGE OF SPIES” (DreamWorks)
MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver – “99 HOMES” (Broad Green Pictures)
JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack – “ROOM” (A24)

PREDICTION: Christian Bale, The Big Short. Without Stallone in the equation, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction both the SAG and the BAFTA will go to. If the same person wins both, then we have a race. If it gets divided, then Stallone wins handily. That said, I’d give this win to Christian Bale, simply for being in the strongest film here. No one has won an acting SAG without getting nominated at the Oscars which eliminates three contenders here, and Disney hasn’t effectively been active in promoting Bridge of Spies. 

ALTERNATE: Jacob Tremblay, Room. But if there’s one performance that can overcome the Oscar snub and equate it to a win, it has got to be Jacob Tremblay. This nine-year old has continuously charmed and swept off events one after the other, that Sylvester Stallone better thank him in his speech if he wins on Oscar night.

film supp actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer – “SPOTLIGHT” (Open Road Films)
HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)
KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. This category loves its ingenues and giving them a welcome win can even be considered a tradition. With a busy year Alicia Vikander had, plus that long suffering wife role she had, this is, as Christoph Waltz would say it, an “uber bingo!

ALTERNATE: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs. I’m a bit iffy on the idea that Kate is winning three individual movie SAGs, let alone all for supporting roles. I still think that the love for Steve Jobs is more of an HFPA thing rather than an industry momentum.

film stunt

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“EVEREST” (Universal Pictures)
“FURIOUS 7” (Universal Pictures)
“JURASSIC WORLD” (Universal Pictures)
“MAD MAX: FURY ROAD” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – ROGUE NATION” (Paramount Pictures)

PREDICTION: Mad Max: Fury Road. Predicting this is likely picking up a paper in a box, but let’s give the advantage to the most buzzed contender which is Mad Max.

ALTERNATE: Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. Then again, this is Stunts we’re talking about, and that shot of Tom Cruise hanging off a plane was one of the most buzzed this year, so maybe it can go Mission: Impossible‘s way.

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

tv miniseries actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
IDRIS ELBA / DCI John Luther – “LUTHER” (BBC America)
BEN KINGSLEY / Grand Vizier Ay – “TUT” (Spike)
RAY LIOTTA / Lorca/Tom Mitchell – “TEXAS RISING” (History)
BILL MURRAY / Himself – “A VERY MURRAY CHRISTMAS” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Thomas Cromwell – “WOLF HALL” (Masterpiece/PBS)

PREDICTION: Idris Elba, Luther. This could really go to anyone in the group, I’m just giving Luther the advantage because they’ve finally recognized it after so many seasons, and it can be a consolation to those not voting for Elba in Film.

ALTERNATE: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall. Indeed one of the more buzzed performances of the previous season was from this British thespian. Somehow, both the Emmys and Globes denied him of the win though. Maybe the actors will be more receptive to it.

tv miniseries actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Grace – “GRACE OF MONACO” (Lifetime)
QUEEN LATIFAH / Bessie Smith – “BESSIE” (HBO)
CHRISTINA RICCI / Lizzie Borden – “THE LIZZIE BORDEN CHRONICLES” (Lifetime)
SUSAN SARANDON / Gladys Mortenson – “THE SECRET LIFE OF MARILYN MONROE” (Lifetime)
KRISTEN WIIG / Delores DeWinter – “THE SPOILS BEFORE DYING” (IFC)

PREDICTION: Queen Latifah, Bessie. Latifah is a previous winner in this same category, so there’s an advantage. Plus it’s the only “prestige” vehicle in this weak lineup.

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco. Welp they’ve boldly had the guts to nominate this, so might as well take it all the way to a win. It’s about an actor and Nicole Kidman hasn’t received and SAG yet.

tv drama actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
BOB ODENKIRK / Jimmy McGill – “BETTER CALL SAUL” (AMC)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Jon Hamm, Mad Men. It’s surprising to think that Jon Hamm has never won an individual SAG Award yet, but as strange as that sounds, he really hasn’t yet. And since the SAGs are sentimental to farewell shows, this could be another on the list.

ALTERNATE: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot. But then, they can also go on their own way and reward the most buzzed TV breakthrough performance of the season. The show is so not SAG’s alley, so the mere fact they’ve nominated it is an indication of strong support.

tv drama actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (Masterpiece/PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. Where’s Taraji P. Henson by the way? Anyway, this is the same lineup from the previous year, only without Tatiana Maslany which means she was the one in sixth last year who tied to a nomination. Three of these shows have a “been there, done that” feel, so let’s just stick with actors favorite Viola Davis.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or they might as well give it to the Dame instead despite her continuous snubbing of all her American awards show nominated recognition.

tv drama ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

PREDICTION: Mad MenOne last hurrah for the ensemble they’ve rewarded twice in the past.

ALTERNATE: Game of Thrones. Or they might as well give in to the deafening buzz of this thrice nominated, but never rewarded ensemble yet.

tv comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX Networks)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)

PREDICTION: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent. I actually expected that they’d already nominate him last year, but it seemed like they waited for the whole season to finish first. Now he’s off to dominate this one to join his Globe and Emmy wins.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Mr. Macy is an actor’s actor and his not so surprising upset last year is a proof of that.

tv comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. After losing last year, the win is probably back in White House with JLD winning a second one for this role.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. But this category also loves its supporting players, so they can just give Uzo Aduba a consecutive win here.

tv comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Key & Peele
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Transparent
Veep

PREDICTION: Veep. This one can really go to any of the ensembles except The Big Bang Theory and Key & Peele. But with their Emmy win and increasing guild support, then I’d give the slight edge.

ALTERNATE: Orange is the New Black. At this point, Orange is the New Black felt like a passe already, but never underestimate this current champ composed of 40 member-ensemble to pull off a repeat win.

You can talk to me about this on Twitter: @nikowl

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